Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open was greeted back up at Monday afternoon’s 2811.25 high. Almost. A headline just minutes before the open triggered a spike up to 2818.50. Where the overnight bounce had threatened unconvincingly to gap up above 2811.25, unconvincingly, the spike up promised deceptively. Neither would qualify for triggering a “session-long rally” setup, and the spike up was retraced back down to the morning’s 2808.50 bias-up signal. Another surge developed into the noon hour up to 2825.00, but its resistance held, too, and the balance of the session drifted lower into the cash session close at 2817.00. Futures bounced to 2824.00. That included a late blip-down to 2813.75 in reaction to another headline.

Overnight action’s new info…
Just closing at or above 2817.00 Tuesday had kept sellers from regaining traction. A hold-long was avoided, but an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to AAPL’s earnings blipped-up to attack 2828.00. Price had dipped back under Tuesday’s high when news hit of new US tariffs against China. Spiking down pierced Tuesday’s late 2813.00 low by 2 points. Ranging choppily sideways overnight is now retesting 2813.00 as support.

If, then…
Retracing the post-close surge doesn’t yet equate to rejecting it. But exiting the open in negative territory could set a bearish tone ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. Whatever its reaction, interim defensive posturing could repeat Monday’s test of 2801.50. And that only serves to chip away at support at this stage. Defensive posturing ahead of FOMC could be accomplished by a shallower dip, but there’s a lot of time before then, and still a lot of news. Extending higher through Wednesday’s open would all but confirm one more upleg is underway, targeting 2873.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2811.00 would be likely to trigger the 2813.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2817.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2820.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2823.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s flat open deceptively seemed like a recovery, after having probed both bias-down parameters overnight. But that was too late to still be challenging positive territory. So the open’s blip-up to 2821.75 snapped back down through the noon hour to 2798.25. The pullback’s next lower objective at 2801.50 was met, and held as support through the close. Actually, 2801.50 was still being overlapped at the close, but not broken.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s choppy ranging has only narrowed overnight. A very shallow upward tilt has gradually improved from 2803.00-2804.00 to touch 2811.00. Perhaps not yet actually improvement, and still little more than it is just noise. Or, anxiousness.

If, then…
Monday’s closing test of 2801.50 can still be rejected by proxy, if Tuesday’s open were to gap up above the prior high. That’s Monday afternoon’s 2811.25 high, currently being attacked. Avoiding fresh overnight lows isn’t necessarily stability, not without alternatively rejecting yesterday’s trend. Overnight action is close to probing 2811.25, but its recovery at the open would be more credible if already serving as support. And having trended down into Monday’s close, the setup would also trigger a session-long reversal. Shallower opening strength would remain vulnerable to another downleg targeting 2875.00-2881.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2811.25 would be likely to trigger the 2808.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2805.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s shallow rally was nevertheless relentless, and also productive for having probed Thursday’s 2846.50 high. The proximity to “unfinished business above” at 2848.75 proved irrelevant when the 2842.00 open slid to 2830.00 through the morning. More so as the slide accelerated to test 2809.00 through the noon hour. The balance of the afternoon ranged choppily flat-to-higher up to 2821.00, forming an Ascending Triangle. Testing the 2818.00 “lower prior high” held through the close, while neutralizing unfinished business below at 2813.75.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open bobbled momentarily, then soon spiked down and eventually extended to 2806.50 before midnight. Firming into and out of Europe’s opens has only continued firming, now attacking Friday’s 2817.50 futures close to within 3 ticks. Friday’s cash session close equated to 2820.00.

If, then…
Both bias-down parameters have been probed overnight. Often, the bias-up signal is also tested. Whether or not bias-up then triggers is determined from post-open price action. That’s if bias-up is also tested, which it often is — but not always. Greeting the open in negative territory under 2817.50-2820.00 would more likely retest overnight lows. And extending Friday morning’s decline would next target 2801.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2813.00 would be likely to trigger the 2815.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2821.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s late 18-point surge up to 2849.50 was retraced almost entirely overnight down to 2833.25. Thursday’s opening surge was also retraced , as were each of Thursday morning’s higher highs. Ultimately, it was an inside day, gaining no traction either way. But “unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2848.75 bias objective. And attempts to reverse down repeatedly failed. Despite the entire session developing in negative territory, the burden of proof was left on sellers The 4-point differential between cash session and futures 2838.25-2842.50 closes was similar to Wednesday.

Overnight action’s new info…
There was a momentary 9-10 point knee-jerk reaction down and up at the close, triggered by AMZN’s own initial earnings confusion. But the Globex session has only trended up. Attacking yesterday’s 2846.50 high to within 2 ticks before Europe’s opens had reacted down to 2842.75. Later surging 4 points pierced yesterday’s high by 2 ticks has reacted back down to 2842.75, again.

If, then…
No decline was indicated by yesterday’s pattern, only the vulnerability if buyers weren’t retaking control overnight. But, have they? Relentless overnight trending doesn’t always attract intraday reinforcements. And stronger-handed counter-trend sponsorship isn’t necessary to reverse the overnight trend — that can happen simply by the overnight trend’s sponsorship exiting. The opening 15 minutes of volatility often lets us know either way. It isn’t necessary to neutralize the “unfinished business above” at 2848.75 before reversing down, but I’ll be reluctant to short otherwise. Not reversing down would next target 2873.00 and potentially 2883.00, while this leg also requires at least an eventual third higher close. Anxiousness and anticipation ahead of this morning’s GDP is surely inhibiting and influencing price action, so a clearer picture should be visible after its release.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2846.50 would be likely to trigger the 2844.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2840.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Perhaps limiting Wednesday’s opening 6-point surge to 2826.00 was product of having originated from a position of weakness. Regardless, the consolidation resolved through the morning bias environment exit, and touched 2836.00 during the afternoon bias environment exit. More so, its 3-point reaction down held above Tuesday’s 2831.25 high to avoid reversing momentum down. The shallow pullback within upside momentum met the position-squaring window being vulnerable to a short-squeeze. Perhaps the setup would have triggered organically, but probably not by spiking up 18 points when the US-EU tariff deal was announced. Reacting down from 2849.50 got to 2840.00 before the close, which bounced 61.8% back up to 2845.50..

Overnight action’s new info…
Having been triggered by a headline, Wednesday’s late surge to 2849.50 was likely to be retraced. What the pre-close dip missed, the Globex gap down to 2835.00 nearly completed. The 2833.25 overnight low is close enough to neutralize that setup’s attraction. But we wouldn’t know it from subsequent price action — the balance of the night, the entire night actually, has ranged narrowly sideways between 2834.00-2838.50.

If, then…
The second consecutive close above 2818.00 confirms a new rally leg is underway, requiring at least an eventual third higher close. It’s next higher target 2873.00, and potentially 2909.00. Potentially. The leg’s characteristic should soon become very aggressive. But not necessarily yet, and the proximity to January’s highs could create turbulence this morning. The bullish context could have a near-term bearish influence, too, as it allows a retracement to refuel buyers, maybe no deeper than 2828.50 but with room to retest 2818.00. Trending up again Thursday afternoon could extend through Monday morning.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2836.25 would be likely to trigger the 2839.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2842.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.