Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s 2823.00 open was greeted 15 points above Monday’s 2808.00 cash session close, and 31 points off of Monday’s pre-open low. Monday afternoon’s 2812.50 bias-up target and the Isolation setup’s 2818.00 objective highs had satisfied their buying pressure overnight. And still Tuesday’s first hour extended up to 2831.25. That’s a lot of buying pressure to expend, let alone to fulfill, so reversing back down to 2812.00 was relatively easy. It should have been as easy for the session to end in a short-squeeze, but te last two hours bounced only 10 points back up to 2822.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
After several consecutive windows of robust trending, price action since yesterday’s close has been non-directional. And non-predictive of its direction. It seems that Global markets don’t know what to make of either yesterday morning’s surge or of its afternoon retracement, and they’re not impressed by the higher close. They’re more influenced now by the sudden relative slowness of yesterday’s last two hours, and its range, have contained overnight action. Initially trending back down 8 points through midnight to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2813.75 bias-down signal, the balance of the night trended back up to within 1 tick of yesterday’s last-minute 2822.00 high. Until 90 minutes ago, which has been dropping relentlessly to now retrace the entire recovery.

If, then…
Closing above last week’s 2818.00 prior highs has put into play the next higher objective at 2836.00 — subject to confirmation today, not of a second consecutive higher close but by not closing back under 2818.00. Otherwise, Tuesday’s 2823.00 open above all prior highs wants to be retested eventually from below. Retesting it before closing back under 2818.00 would be bearish, especially if 2836.00 were visited, first. Meanwhile, failing to exploit Tuesday’s late vulnerability to a short-squeeze made overnight action vulnerable to extending Tuesday’s pullback if Wednesday’s open isn’t gap up, which it’s currently not.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2816.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2813.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2821.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2823.50 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s retest of Thursday night’s lows down to 2792.50 wasn’t retested intraday, but Monday morning’s 2796.00-2797.00 lows did probe under Thursday’s intraday lows. The entire morning bias environment continually challenged Thursday’s intraday lows, fulfilling the bearish WedEX indicator. Its influence ended as the bias environment lapsed, isolating the probe of negative territory. Friday’s bullish Isolation setup immediately began influencing the balance of the session, which rallied through the close to touch “unfinished business above” at the afternoon’s 2812.50 bias-up target.

Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex open formed a small Ascending Triangle before soon resuming Monday afternoon’s rally. The Isolation setup’s 2818.00 retest was fulfilled by midnight up to 2819.50. Gradually sliding back down 3 points suddenly plunged another 5 points at Europe’s opens down to 2811.00. But it was straight back up from there until attacking the overnight high to within 1 tick.

If, then…
This is a big decision point for the market. Not necessarily in terms of timing, but at least in price. And not necessarily intraday price, but in terms of the close. There is no further unfinished business above as Tuesday’s open approaches, so the rally depends upon intraday action creating one before the close. Sellers aren’t precluded from creating an objective below, but signaling the trend reversing down is unlikely so far above the prior session’s highs. The retest of last week’s 2818.00 highs was always likely to be probed intraday, and the least room for noise above it is 2821.00. The renewed bias-up target would be 2825.25. Reversing down from either would start to rob buyers of their traction, but probably not reverse the trend down. So, the morning might not even try reversing down, and could be much more motivated to probe last week’s highs.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2820.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2817.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2813.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2811.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Initially firming into Thursday night’s Globex session was blind-sided by the first overnight drop, a 17-point plunge to 2793.50. Its recovery back into Thursday’s range up to 2806.00 was hit by a 13-point plunge to 2793.00. Its recovery into and out of Friday’s open retraced the original plunge’s 2810.50 origin. More so, its recovery maintained an open back into Thursday’s range to form an Isolation setup. The morning’s rally created room for the afternoon’s bearish WedEX to influence price back down through Friday’s close and touch Thursday morning’s 2800.25 low.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped-up to touch 2806.00 and soon began reversing down. And down. Thursday night’s lows were pierced down to 2792.50. A chunk of the drop was a single 7-point slide, but no more plunging. And that was before midnight. Flat-to-higher ranging since then has twice tested Thursday/Friday’s “higher prior lows” at 2800.25.

If, then…
So much for Sunday night strength. Honoring the Isolation setup is difficult if this morning were to probe under Thursday’s 2800.00-2802.00 lows. And that’s going to be difficult to avoid if this morning were to honor the bearish WedEX influence, starting at Thursday’s 2800.00-2802.00 lows. Anything can happen before the open, but not much is expected. Overnight price action off of the lows may be forming an Ascending Triangle, whose break would target 2805.00 and 2813.00, which would be plenty of room for the morning’s bearish WedEX influence to develop — given enough time for the Triangle pattern’s overnight influence to develop pre-open, or into the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And given that the Triangle actually breaks higher. The pattern’s uptrending support is being tested now, and back under its 2795.00 connector would start to signal the Triangle is breaking lower, not higher, targeting 2791.25 and potentially 2781.00 down to 2775.00. Remember, both the Isolation and WedEX setup could be simultaneously influential if Monday morning were only to range narrowly sideways above 2800.00-2802.00. That’s no fun.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2803.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2798.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2795.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
No “unfinished business above” outstanding as of Wednesday’s close for a second consecutive session left the market vulnerable, and a retest of Wednesday’s 2818.00 high was reversed down overnight to 2806.25. Thursday’s opening bounce attacked 2813.00 and quickly reversed down sharply to fresh lows at 2800.25. But the morning’s 2804.00 bias-down target held. In fact, 2804.00 held repeatedly throughout the choppy session. The morning’s recovery to its 2811.00 bias-down signal was retraced to 2804.00 after noon (amid Trump’s interest rate comments). And another recovery to the afternoon’s 2813.25 bias-up signal was retraced to 2804.00, firming a couple of points into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wild. Globex continued firming innocently from Thursday’s late drop and got up to 2810.50. China’s devaluation took great and immediate effect, triggering a plunge to 2793.50. Reacting up had trended through Europe’s opens amid Italian dept drama, returning to Thursday’s 2806.00 close. Trump’s wider tariff threat in response to China took great and immediate effect, triggering a plunge to 2793.00. Reacting up has retraced 61.8% of the plunge to 2801.50 — back within yesterday’s range, again

If, then…
Trending any lower through Friday’s open would have set the tone for extending the drop either to 2791.25 or 2781.00 and 2775.00. Coming so close overnight (twice) to the closer target doesn’t make the farther target any likelier. More important will be whether 2791.25 is yet tested during a timing window, and then whether its test had held through that timing window’s exit. That’s if the overnight bearishness persists through the open — expiration open, which can be surprising — which is currently indicated above yesterday’s lows where an Isolation setup could trigger. It also doesn’t necessarily affect the afternoon’s bearish WedEX, although its influence may be exacerbated.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2794.25 at 9:45 would be likely also to exceed the 2795.50 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2799.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2802.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2805.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Dipping overnight into Wednesday’s open extended down to Tuesday’s noon hour low, and held the morning’s 2807.75 bias-down signal. The offsetting test of its 2816.00 bias-up signal attracted price higher. Tuesday’s highs were probed up to 2818.00 as the noon hour began, and again as the session ended, with an interim dip to 2813.00. The close was still testing 2816.75, and not exceeding it which would have put into play higher objectives. No higher targets or objectives are in-play. WedEX triggered passive-bearish, for having held relevant resistance without creating higher unmet targets.

Overnight action’s new info…
Doomed to failure was apparently delayed to failure. Wednesday’s reaction down from retesting 2818.00 extended down to attack 2814.00 at the Globex open, then returned to 2818.00. Dipping back down to 2814.00 a second time didn’t hold, and has trended back down to probe yesterday’s 2806.75 low by 2 ticks.

If, then…
Gapping up and extending above 2818.00 seems to be off the table, so the bearish WedEX won’t be adjusted. But opening under 2809.00 can adjust the passive signal by proxy to active. Opening under 2809.00 and recovering it through the open would be bullish for the WedEX signal, which won’t be influential until tomorrow afternoon. and also bullish for this morning to at least probe above 2818.00. Otherwise, a bearish morning will depend upon whether the open tests only 2809.00 or also yesterday’s 2806.75 low, and then whether the test holds.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2809.00 would be likely to trigger the 2811.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2814.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.