Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Target-to-target; we don’t see these sessions often. Monday night’s drop to test 2790.00 was essentially the morning’s bias-down target. Its reaction into and out of the open avoided triggering the bias-down signal, putting into play an offsetting test of its bias-up signal. The morning’s momentum persisted through the noon hour to trigger the afternoon’s bias-up signal, whose 2816.75 target was fulfilled to within 4 ticks at session highs. That also represented the room for noise above the rally’s 2813.00 objective. The close was back under it, but still above the 2809.00 objective whose Sunday night test had held.

Overnight action’s new info…
Closing back under the intraday test of 2813.00-2816.75 robs the rally of its momentum, but doesn’t reverse it which had required closing under 2809.00. This is now exemplified by the overnight sideways range. Attacking 2810.00 into Tuesday’s close was soon recovered to pierce fresh highs to within 1 tick of 2816.75. Gradually reacting down since then has again attacked 2810.00. .

If, then…
Having lost its momentum, resuming the rally Wednesday morning all but requires gapping up. Not gapping up doesn’t necessarily default to reversing down. But reversing down is likelier if not gapping up, and makes intraday rally efforts likely to fail. Meanwhile, this is day-two of the Fed Chair’s congressional testimony. It rarely duplicates day-one. Price action already discounts comments as if they’ll be repeated the second day. Often, the Fed Chair walks-back various comments that were misinterpreted or overly discounted. All of which will make for an interesting WedEX reading at the close.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2818.00 would be likely to trigger the 2816.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2813.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2810.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2807.75 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday morning’s drop to 2795.00 was signaled by the Globex setup — reversing an overnight probe of fresh highs up to 2709.00 to open back under the 2803.75 earlier overnight low. The morning remained under bearish pressure. The bias-down signal narrowly avoided being touched or triggering, so no other objective above or below was put into play. And later tests of the bias-down signal throughout the morning were absorbed. Positive territory held as resistance to a noon hour bounce, but the bounce’s failure only attacked the morning’s low. One more bounce stopped short of signaling a hold-long, and the cash session ended at 2800.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Blipping up to 2801.25 after the cash session close was reversed sharply down to 2795.00 as news leaked of AMZN web site problems and NFLX reported earnings difficulties. Globex initially recovered to retest 2801.25, suggesting that participants view the AMZN/NFLX problems as localized to the companies. Reversing back down into and out of Europe’s opens to a fresh low at 2790.50 may be suggesting that ripple effects are coming anyway (I expand on this in the Market Tour recording). Bouncing to 2797.75 has reacted down almost entirely back to the low.

If, then…
Having probed overnight under yesterday’s low, opening back above yesterday’s low and holding it as support could Isolate overnight sellers. The potentially bullish setup may be the only alternative to extending yesterday’s intraday weakness today with potential down to 2781.25. So, triggering bias-down, or not, may tell us everything about the balance of today’s session.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2792.50 would be likely to trigger the 2794.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2797.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s last-minute 2801.00 high was still overlapping Tuesday’s prior high, but not rejecting it. Unfinished business above was left outstanding at 2804.00. Friday’s flat open dipped just enough to test the 2793.50 bias-down signal. Its reaction soon extended to fresh highs testing 2806.00, and soon peaked. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways between 2801.00-2806.00. Thursday’s touch of February’s 2800.75 pivotal high was not rejected, confirming the attractions above to ate last 2809.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open spiked up to 2809.00 and ranged narrowly sideways. Tests of 2804.00 as support held through Europe’s opens, but an attempt to resume the earlier rally has been rejected by fresh overnight lows down to 2802.25. Its reaction up tested 2804.00 as resistance and has reversed down to fresh lows at 2800.50.

If, then…
An overnight probe above the prior session’s high has threatened to reverse back under the earlier overnight low. The differential between high and low is relatively narrow, but sufficient to trigger a downtrending morning. Probing the earlier overnight low post-open but then recovering it could resolve as bullishly as its failure would have been bearish. And then retesting the 2809.00 overnight high or probing it up to 2813.00-2816.75 would be likely before becoming vulnerable again to reversing down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2807.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2809.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2811.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2804.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2797.75 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Trending up throughout Wednesday night probed above Wednesday’s intraday high at Thursday’s open up to 2791.00. It quickly reacted down to 2782.75 throughout the entire opening 15 minutes of volatility. The balance of the session wouldn’t seem so, but that opening drop created a position of weakness. Any rally it produces should be doomed to failure, which has yet to be evident as of Thursday’s close. Instead, the overnight rally resumed and extended up to 2800.50 through the noon hour’s exit. The balance of the afternoon ranged sideways down to 2795.00, or several ticks lower. The afternoon’s bias-up signal had triggered, leaving outstanding its 2804.00 bias-up target.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday afternoon’s pause soon ended after the Globex open, trending up to fulfill the intraday unfinished business at 2804.00. Consolidating there eventually resolved up to 2807.25, but only briefly. The extension above 2804.00 was retraced into Europe’s opens, then the extension above yesterday’s ~2800.00 highs was retraced after Europe’s opens. More so, the earlier overnight low was probed down to 2795.50. Its reaction attacked 2801.00.

If, then…
Despite a very last-minute surge that touched 2801.00, Thursday’s closing action was still overlapping Tuesday’s 2797.75 highs. Settling above it was too late to trigger a higher objective. Like Thursday’s opening “position of weakness,” that doesn’t prevent first probing higher, first. And it hasn’t. Separately, another setup has touched February’s 2800.75 “Pivotal” high, which puts into play a test of the 2809.00 and 2813.00 actual highs. Last night’s rally up to 2807.25 does not fulfill either of those targets. But neutralizing yesterday’s 2804.00 “unfinished business” and the near-term buying pressure that had created it. The door remains open to a downdraft before fulfilling the upside objectives, and having returned to the earlier overnight low, that downdraft would be more credible immediately than delayed.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2797.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2804.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2806.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s satisfied buying pressure and subsequent inertia had made a pullback likely. It also made the market vulnerable to overreacting to news. And news came after the close to trigger a 30-point plunge overnight to test 2766.00. Greeting Wednesday’s open 12 points higher eventually extended to attack 2788.00. But the balance of the morning retraced back down to the open, and the balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. That included breaking lower during the very latest stage of the afternoon’s no-bias environment, which was almost too late to be considered no-bias trending. Its recovery cleared the way for resuming the decline, or else extending the recovery. Perhaps it was the CME’s outage that prevented both.

Overnight action’s new info…
The CME outage was resolved before the close, but the range persisted well into Globex. Surging before midnight up to 2784.50 ranged sideways even longer, into and out of Europe’s opens. A blip-down to 2778.50 snapped back up to touch yesterday’s 2787.75 high. And now it’s being probed up to 2791.00.

If, then…
The overnight resolution was likely to reveal the market’s intent, either gapping up above Wednesday afternoon’s 2782.50 high, or else breaking under the afternoon’s 2772.00 low. Gapping up is now indicated, and the scheduled pre-open reports probably don’t have the influence to change that trajectory. The risk of probing yesterday’s high post-open requires that it be maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Otherwise, rather than recovering yesterday’s high, failing to hold its post-open test could repeat yesterday’s reaction down — whether as a temporary dip into yesterday afternoon’s range, or to resume the decline. Having trended higher relentlessly overnight, attracting reinforcements through the open can extend the overnight trend, and not attracting reinforcements can kill it.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2792.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2788.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2785.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2780.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.