Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open held tests of its 2789.75 bias-up signal as support, and soon extended higher until testing the morning’s 2797.50 bias-up target. Reacting down through the noon hour retested the morning’s low, and reversing up into the close retested the morning’s high. The final hour was entered too low to gain traction for the afternoon recovery. So, trending up further would be unlikely, and trending up anyway would be likely to fail. The close trended up anyway. The identical open and close — not in price, but by their legs covering the same ground — is inertia. And inertia at the new extreme of a multi-session trend suggests that sponsorship needs a pullback.

Overnight action’s new info…
Did I say pullback? I meant plunge, of course. New tariffs on China released soon after the Globex open triggered a 17-point plunge  to 2780.50. Drifting down to 2773.00 formed a Descending Triangle that resolved down to 2765.75. That was Friday afternoon’s high, and its touch produced a bounce back up to 2781.00. A big bounce, which produced a big reaction down to 2769.50. Now a bounce is attacking 2779.00.

If, then…
Was last night’s tariff reaction an overreaction? Buying pressure was freshly satisfied at Tuesday morning’s bias-up target, and no higher target was since triggered. More so, price action since fulfilling yesterday morning’s target only ranged sideways — and even tried to rally when it would not gain traction for the effort. Just revisiting 2788.00 was already likely to trigger substantial follow-through, which there has been. There’s certainly potential for even more substantial follow-through, like to 2761.00-2762.00, and bouncing first to 2784.00-2785.00 would likely be only a correction. But the degree of follow-through already done does introduce vulnerability to that corrective bounce, first. Holding the corrective bounce’s recovery through a relevant window would start to suggest the reaction down was done.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2780.25 would be likely also not to recover the 2782.00 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2784.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2789.75 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Gapping up 10 points Monday to 2773.50 surged to 2779.00 and back down again. But not so far as to reverse momentum back down, all but putting into play 2788.00. The open held its test as support to resume rallying into the noon hour up to 2785.50. Its correction held the morning’s 2779.00 high and resumed rallying again — into a last-minute surge that came within 3 ticks of 2788.00. Post-close action immediately fulfilled it, neither extending above it nor reacting down from it.

Overnight action’s new info…
The post-close extension quickly formed a Close-quarters Double Top. But for absorbing it, Monday’s rally resumed immediately, and steeply, testing 2796.00. (There’s what appears to be a bad print or very errant ticks up to 2797.75.) Pulling back into and out of Europe’s opens tested and retested 2788.00. Its support has pushed price back up to 2794.50, where the difference will be made between extending or dipping again to 2788.00.

If, then…
The 2788.00 target was essentially met Monday, but wasn’t rejected before the close, so gapping up Tuesday wasn’t going to be surprising. Already extending 8-10 points higher overnight created that much room to absorb the subsequent selling pressure before it could damage the chart, helping yesterday’s late high hold its test as support. And having done so, there’s no bullish reason to retest 2788.00 except for a post-open dip to quickly reverse up. Exiting the open in negative territory would more likely trend down through the morning.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2790.75 would be likely to trigger the 2789.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2785.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s choppiness had fluctuated between probing the 2739.75 intraday high up to 2747.25 to retracing it down to 2731.25. The setup can be as bullish as it would have been bearish, when fully formed but not triggered. Friday’s Employment Situation report triggered a surge to 2744.50, that still needed another dip before the open could rally to fresh highs. The pre-open restraint paid off by letting post-open buying pressure run up to 2764.25 into the noon hour. Potential to the low 2760‘s was fulfilled, and the balance of the session fluctuated around 2760.00-2761.00. A late dip down to 2757.00 began too late to be strong-handed, and snapped back up to attack 2764.00 into the close. Two-week old gaps and higher prior lows were tested from below, and held through the close to prevent putting any higher targets into play.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open was uneventful, no gapping involved. But price immediately began firming back up to and through Friday afternoon’s highs. Extending to 2774.50 by midnight has since ranged sideways between 2770.00-2775.00. The upper-end is being pierced now.

If, then…
Despite not retracing the initial upleg, the overnight plateau disqualifies overnight action from being relentless trending. Nevertheless, the burden of proof is on buyers to maintain a gap coming out of the weekend. Already probing above this morning’s bias-up 2772.50 target, the next higher resistance is likely to be tested at 2777.25. Testing 2780.00, too, during a relevant window would make its recovery — or rejection — predictive. In other words, testing 2777.25 and/or 2780.00 must be maintained to avoid reversing down sharply through the morning.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2764.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2766.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2768.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2772.00 after testing 2777.25 could reverse momentum down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday morning’s low was 19 points under the 2735.75 overnight high, and still held positive territory. The drop was recovered entirely before leaving the noon hour. It was also still an inside day, contained within Tuesday’s range, until a later probe higher to 2739.50. That included another drop which was also fully recovered, reacting down to the FOMC Minutes. It created the afternoon’s 2725.00 low. Regardless of the late surge, Tuesday’s downside momentum has yet to be reversed.

Overnight action’s new info…
Globex gapped down under Thursday afternoon’s 2737.50 high to immediately reject the late surge. Immediately extending lower to test 2733.00 didn’t prevent recovering to retest the late surge up to 2740.00. And it didn’t prevent a spike up after midnight to 2745.00 that extended up to 2747.50 before Europe’s opens. More like until Europe’s opens. Collapsing back down to 2735.00 was retraced 6 points, but only temporarily. Now 2733.00 is being retested.

If, then…
Regardless of current indications, the soon-to-be released Employment Situation report makes today’s actual opening print wild card. But we do know there are two bearish setups forming, waiting to be triggered. First, having trended up into Thursday’s close, gapping down Friday under Thursday afternoon’s 2725.00 low would form a “session-long decline.” That much we knew at yesterday’s close, but now a second setup may be forming since first dipping at last night’s Globex open (see image). Having probed above Thursday’s intraday high, exiting Friday’s open under the earlier 2732.75 overnight low would reverse momentum down through the morning. Otherwise, not exploiting the reversal potential would be likely at least to test the overnight high. And this being a Friday, when the morning’s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour, extending higher could reach the mid-2750s and maybe low 2760s.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary levels are considered ahead of Employment Situation reports.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s 2736.50 open was backing-off of the 2741.50 overnight high, but still gapped up 9 points from Monday’s close. It was still much more a test of the recent range’s upper-end, opposite of Monday’s open gapping down to the same range’s lower-end. And it was no more likely to extend beyond the range without extending immediately. Which, like Monday, it did not. Just drifting back down through the morning to attack Monday’s 2727.25 close could have sufficed for the early close session, but US-China trade war headlines triggered a slide to 2712.00 by the close. Ending back under 2718.00 helped to maintain the decline’s traction, which still needs confirmation by extending down Thursday without delay, regardless of a possible bounce during the Globex holiday trading.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday night’s Globex open blipped-down to 2711.00 and then proceeded to bounce, to within 2 ticks of Thursday morning’s 2724.50 bias-up target. Last night’s session initially dipped to retrace almost all of the bounce down to 2712.50. But no deeper. And rallying through Europe’s opens has extended to 2733.00, which is probing slightly above where Tuesday’s US-China trade war headlines triggered its slide.

If, then…
Immediately extending Tuesday’s slide is not a likely scenario after having bounced so much overnight. But another confirmation setup remains valid since overnight action didn’t get the opportunity to reject a probe lower, and that is to immediately trend down through the open and eventually end under Tuesday’s close. Just closing back under 2718.00 would at least keep alive downside momentum into the weekend. None of that is currently indicated, and trending up through an open that is back at or above the last downleg’s origin would be likely to extend higher through the morning. The trick to that isn’t extending higher, but not to reject the origin’s recovery, which is as much resistance as the recent range’s upper-end.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2726.50 would be likely to exceed the 2724.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2721.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2718.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.