Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s steady decline from 2728.00 to 2698.50 was retraced 38.2% before the open — not a healthier 68.2%. That much pessimism wasn’t going to trend down intraday unless maintained through the open. A quick probe under the overnight low could have formed a bottom, but an attack on it down to 2700.50 sufficed. The morning snapped back up to attack 2719.00, but from a position of weakness that was likely to retrace 2704.00. Which it did. Its retracement was likely to extend down. Which it didn’t. The balance of the session rallied back into positive territory up to 2728.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Somewhat similar to Sunday, last night also essentially began with a blip-up that was reversed down. Last night’s blip-up was a little further in, initially surging 8 points to attack 2733.00, then snapping back down more than 11 points to attack 2721.00. Last night’s blip-up was also recovered, retraced into Europe’s opens, and extended to attack 2740.00 as Chinese banks actively supported the Yuan.

If, then…
Was anticipation that China would be forced to step in sooner rather than later responsible for Monday afternoon’s rescue? Or, the mid-week holiday’s volume constraints? Maybe a little of both, but more the latter than the former. In other words, China’s near-term effects on Global markets tend to be retraced. Meanwhile, trending beyond the existing range is difficult around holidays, while trending back to the range’s opposite end is easier. And now, markets are at the recent range’s upper-end, freshly retraced from its lower-end. Trending up today, and not down, probably requires trending up early. Today’s early close only makes breaking beyond the range more difficult. Extending Monday afternoon’s rally intraday was always least likely, and no more likely just for having extended it overnight… Closing Friday under 2718.00 kept alive selling pressure through the weekend. Closing above it Monday would usually require rejecting it Tuesday, but normal requirements are less influential on a shortened session — let alone ahead of a holiday. Nevertheless, trending back down to 2704.00 is still the likeliest objective for any reversal. REMINDER: Today’s early close is at 1:15 PM ET early close. Market Wrap will be held early.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2735.50 would be likely to exceed the 2735.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2740.75 and 2745.00. Exiting the open above 2733.00 would be likely to trigger the 2730.50 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s rally rewarded Thursday’s buyers for having gained traction. Gapping up to 2730.00 extended higher through the bias environment to 2745.50. Thursday’s close back under 2718.00 created a position of weakness for launching Friday morning’s rally. So the rest of Friday gradually retraced the post-open gains. And then quickly retraced much of the pre-open gains down to 2720.75. Collapsing under the opening gap signaled its rejection. Ending back under Thursday’s highs increased the vulnerability to gapping down Monday.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped-up to 2725.25 then spiked down to 2712.50. The spike down was triggered by news of a not-new story (WTO exit), and recovered to test this morning’s 2727.25 bias-up signal. But it was straight down from there — relentlessly, more than aggressively — to greet Europe’s opens at 2702.00, soon extending to 2698.50. Price action since then has consolidated back up to 2710.00.

If, then…
There’s nothing bullish about probing under 2704.00 again, as did three of last week’s sessions. Support there has been thoroughly chipped away, including 10 points lower where Thursday morning found its low. Post-open action may not dip back down to 2704.00 or it may isolate its test to the open. Not already recovering 10 points higher through the open would remain vulnerable to another downleg.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2709.75 would be unlikely to recover the 2711.00 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2715.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2718.00 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
What began as a probe of fresh lows Thursday ended as a reversal through almost every intraday timing window. A pre-open collapse to 2693.25 rewarded Wednesday’s sellers for having gained traction. But it had originated too late to avoid being retraced back up to 2707.00. Its post-open repeat got no further before bouncing off of the bias-down target and back up through the bias-down signal to rob sellers of their traction. Extending the recovery through the morning endured a noon hour pullback to extend the recovery through the afternoon. The 2726.25 peak was a 61.8% retracement back to Wednesday morning’s high, and it gained traction with the same timing as Wednesday’s sellers. Reacting down closed back under 2718.00 to avoid signaling the trend starting to reverse up.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s late pullback was maintained well into Globex, supported by 2718.00. Surging to fresh highs above 2730.00 eventually extended through Europe’s opens up to test 2737.00. It looked good, for awhile. But that extension was retraced back under 2730.00, and then to 2723.00 as yesterday’s 2726.25 high now fights to hold as support.

If, then…
Closing under 2718.00 didn’t reverse the trend down, but formed a position of weakness that dooms to failure an early attempt to extend higher Friday. The attempt part of the equation has developed overnight, so its failure can become obvious without any delay. We have two consecutive sessions of reversing early trending attempts — regardless of their being in opposite directions — so, be prepared for this to be a new behavioral pattern. Having said that, this being a Friday, renewing the bias-up or not rejecting it altogether would be vulnerable to extending higher into the afternoon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2730.75 would be likely to trigger the 2727.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2735.50 would be likely to exceed the 2733.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2722.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Volatility made its most obvious display on Wednesday, even before the open. An overnight drop had probed probe under Tuesday’s 2717.50 low to 2705.50, and was recovered to greet Wednesday’s open just short of Tuesday’s 2735.25 highs. That recovery was extended to the morning’s 2748.00 high before reversing back down through the overnight low to 2701.00. The intraday downleg had retraced 61.8% of the recovery and still exhibited optimism in the form of a Running Correction / Falling Wedge. “Ineffectual optimism,” because the pattern resolved down. No “unfinished business” was left outstanding as the session ended at 2702.00/2705.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Trending up gradually to 2714.00 was retraced down to 2706.00 into Europe’s opens. The reaction to Wednesday’s intraday decline was muted, enabling a quick recovery up to 2717.00.The defensive posturing had paid off, initially, but only temporarily as the recovery was reversed entirely back down to 2704.50. Another recovery, even steeper than coming after Europe, tested 2716.00, and is now reacting back down again to 2707.00… all in positive territory.

If, then…
Wednesday’s session suggests that Tuesday night’s decline has resumed, which was already an effort to resume Monday morning’s decline. Not extending down already overnight isn’t bullish, — only hovering in positive territory is potentially just another instance of “ineffectual optimism.” Yesterday afternoon’s instance resolved down, and hasn’t been recovered. Notwithstanding support along the way, the next lower objective is to retest the 4-week old 2679.00 low, and that should offer only obligatory support. Meanwhile, since yesterday’s sellers gained traction for their efforts, gapping up above 2722.50 would be credible for reversing the trend back up.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2709.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2711.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2713.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s 2725.75 open only overlapped Monday afternoon’s 2725.00 high. Gapping up higher or extending could have invalidated the traction not gained by Monday afternoon’s buyers. So, Tuesday morning ranged very choppily between 2718.00-2728.00, holding the morning’s 2728.25 bias-up target. Extending the rally through the noon hour came within 1 tick of its 2735.50 bias-up target. It also held, like the morning’s target. The balance of the session drifted back down to 2723.25, absorbing a 5-1/2 point headline bounce. And the session went out overlapping its prior high from Monday afternoon, again gaining no traction for its efforts, and leaving no unfinished business outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Globex initially bounced up to 2732.50, 3 points short of Tuesday afternoon’s high. Consolidating back down to 2724.50 got in a 5-point bounce to test this morning’s 2729.00 bias-up signal before sliding into and out of Europe’s opens. A lot. Ultimately reaching 2705.50, a 16-point bounce has has retraced 61.8% of the overnight drop from testing 2729.00. That is probing slightly back above yesterday morning’s lows and almost attacking this morning’s 2722.50 bias-down signal as resistance.

If, then…
The overnight low attacks Monday’s lows. The overnight dip avoided touching Monday morning’s 2703.75 pivotal low, which avoids requiring a retest of Monday afternoon’s 2700.50 actual low. I would expect a second bite at that apple to succeed at creating the new attraction below. Otherwise, isolating the probe under yesterday’s lows to the overnight — i.e. not only triggering no-bias above 2722.50, but avoiding 2717.50 post-open — would target a retest of yesterday’s high. Triggering bias-down would resume Monday’s break and the attraction to 4-week old lows, where the trend reverses down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2725.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2722.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2718.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.