Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s bigger and bigger legs confirm that volatility remains very much alive. The overnight drop from Friday’s 2759.00 close had extended to 20 points attacking 2739.00. The morning’s 2746.25 bias-down target provided one last bit of post-open resistance to launch a 26-point plunge attacking 2720.00. Another bounce resolved down sharply, too, falling 27 points to test 2704.00 into the noon hour. One more 21-point drop during the afternoon bias environment retested the morning’s low down to 2700.50. Its reaction was the most productive, bouncing through the final hour back up to 2725.00 which overlapped the afternoon bias environment’s 2721.75 interim high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s intraday volatility continued overnight, albeit not at first glance. Ranging round Monday afternoon’s 2721.75 bias environment high persisted through Europe’s opens. No longer trending might seem non-volatile, but each interim swing has reached a higher high or higher low than its last. More so, Europe’s opens were greeted with a fresh overnight high at this morning’s 2728.25 bias-up target, and its reaction just touched a fresh overnight low at 2714.75.

If, then…
Yesterday’s final hour bounce had probed the afternoon’s prior high, and not just briefly. Closing above it was entirely possible, if the bounce’s buyers had been bullish. Apparently, the deep drop still wasn’t considered to be enough of a bargain. Since buyers didn’t gain traction, extending the late bounce without delay this morning would require gapping up. The decline is otherwise likelier to persist, which would also be much more credible this morning if begun without delay or by gapping down. Also considering the overnight volatility, early trending would be credible for extending.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2715.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2713.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2720.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2722.50 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s relentless trending into Friday’s gap up to 2767.00 was the basis for a session-long rally setup that only needed to be maintained, if not also extended. It was barely maintained, and was not extended. Reacting down to 2757.00 was fully recovered to 2767.00, where Friday Factors inhibited volatility through the balance of the session. At least, until I left the screen early. My final comments warned of greater risk down to 2758.00-2759.00 than up to a fresh high, but also the difficulty to producing either before the close. That didn’t prevent a late drop to attack 2755.00. Its break was too late to form a hold-short, but its reaction entered the weekend at 2759.00 — that was the potential drop’s target, and not recovering it opened the door to extending down. Ultimately holding 2756.00, but not recovering 2767.00, changed nothing about buyers still not regaining control. However, it did require sellers to prove without much delay that they’re still in control.

Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s late drop probed lower immediately Sunday night. Probing under 2755.00 soon collapsed to test 2743.00, Consolidating back to 2749.00 gradually started breaking lower to eventually attack 2739.00. Its reaction has bounced up to 2746.00.

If, then…
Tuesday night’s action had warned volatility would be expanding sharply. Which it did, all the way through Thursday’s close. Last night’s relentless trending and productivity of that trending suggests the volatility has resumed. Separately, Thursday’s close had warned that lower lows were underway. Friday’s gap up had all but rejected that, but didn’t exploit it. Not, yet. Meanwhile, last night has trended relentlessly. Thursday night’s relentless rally didn’t extend Friday, but last night’s relentless trending has the benefit of greeting maximum liquidity instead of minimum. That said, not trending down through the open could undermine the pattern.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2747.75 would be unlikely to exceed the 2746.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2750.50 would be likely to trigger the 2753.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2756.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Yhursday’s 2769.50 open was only slightly negative, but it was well under Wednesday night’s 2785.75 high. That triggered the Globex reversal setup to produce a bearish Thursday morning that almost touched 2750.00. A corrective bounce up to 2763.50 was eventually reversed to fresh session lows at 2747.00. Sellers gained traction for their efforts, but the late drop still stopped optimistically short of Tuesday’s 2746.00 post-open low. A bounce closed back above the morning’s 2750.25-2751.50 lows, but under 2756.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Quickly dipping attacked 2749.00 before reversing up more substantially. This morning’s 2759.00 bias-up signal held the first multi-hour consolidation. It broke higher after midnight, extending effortlessly through Europe’s opens, to probe 1 point above this morning’s 2765.50 bias-up target.

If, then…
Another night, another reversal setup. So, another reversal setup caveat, too. First, the setup. Overnight action has trended relentlessly in one direction. And not arbitrarily, but back to the bias-up signal. Back to the bias-up target. Through yesterday afternoon’s high (which printed before the bias environment had begun lapsing), and through yesterday’s late-morning high for added effect. Exiting the open above a prior high suggests that new sponsorship intends to extend the trending intraday. Yesterday’s last-minute bounce doesn’t disqualify an open above yesterday afternoon’s high from forming a “session-long rally” setup… And now, the caveat. Session-long rally setups can be as bearish as they would have been bullish, if the fully formed setup doesn’t trigger. How? Relentless overnight trending can often inhibit reinforcements at the open, having become more attractive to counter-trend sponsorship. We’ll know through the open, by whether a probed resistance is maintained or rejected. Regardless, be careful not to dismiss that post-open indication, especially if the overnight rally is maintained despite yesterday afternoon’s sellers having gained traction and having been only minimally productive before the close.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2763.50 would be likely to trigger the 2759.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2757.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2768.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2765.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s attack on its 2756.75 bias-down target had recovered to greet Wednesday’s open at its 2773.50 bias-up signal. That would be important at 10:15. Meanwhile, more important was whether the gap up would be maintained through the open, and preferably also extended. That was the only way to extend higher Wednesday, since Tuesday’s buyers had failed to gain traction. The gap up was maintained, but not extended. And then it wasn’t even maintained, failing to trigger the bias-up signal it was already testing. That put into play an objective below at 2763.00 which was not attacked any nearer than natural support at 2767.00. Triggering the afternoon’s bias-up signal put into play its 2779.75 target, which was attacked to within 2 points. Both 2767.00 and 2779.75 became “unfinished business.”

Overnight action’s new info…
For a single session to form BOTH sponsorship AND counter-trend sponsorship that triggers widely disparate objectives, already reflects an unstable market. Preventing either objective from being fulfilled is instability — squared. So, we ended yesterday by looking for S&Ps volatility to expand sharply Thursday. And it looks like overnight action got the memo. Globex’s initial 2770.00-2775.00 range gradually expanded to attack 2777.00 and then surged to test 2785.00. That was already retracing back down before midnight. Europe’s opens were greeted back down at 2777.00, and the slide extended sharply lower to 2762.00. Now a bounce is touching 2770.00, yesterday’s late low.

If, then…
From yesterday’s Market Wrap: S&Ps volatility should expand sharply Thursday, whether ranging more widely or trending sharply. How about a little of both. Each of the “unfinished business” above and below were met — including another gap fill, which combines with yesterday to make a pair. Now the overnight 23-point reversal is trying to recover back into yesterday’s range. It will probably find that 2767.00 has more intraday influence than it does overnight. And probing even 3 points above it (which is testing this morning’s 2769.50 bias-down signal as resistance) is still likely to resolve down to retest or attack 2756.00. Also, reversing the overnight probe above yesterday’s high back under the earlier 2770.00 overnight low, through this morning’s open, would point down aggressively through this morning, if not also through tomorrow morning. Having said all that, forming all of the basis for reversing down, but holding, would be as bullish as it could have been bearish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2763.00 would be unlikely to exceed the 2761.50 bias-down target at 10:15 or to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2767.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2769.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2774.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s opening retest of 2767.00 had put into play an eventual test of 2756.00. Rallying Monday didn’t prevent trending down overnight (on US-China tariff war escalating) to probe 20 points under 2756.00. Rallying pre-open didn’t extend much higher for long post-open. But the session ultimately recovered to test 2767.00 by 2 points. Closing above 2756.00 indicated that sellers gained no traction for their efforts. Closing above 2767.00 would have indicated buyers gained traction for theirs. The close wasn’t decisively above 2767.00, but it was still impressive.

Overnight action’s new info…
Choppiness well before midnight had already rivaled the intraday action. Rallying from the overnight low has rivaled Tuesday’s intraday action, too. First, a 4-point dip to this morning’s 2763.00 bias-down signal reacted up to fresh highs at 2769.00, then collapsed to within 2 ticks of this morning’s 2756.75 bias-down target. Its quick recovery up to 2767.00 was retraced once more down to 2763.00, but recovered again. That was the end of that, as the market surged up to 2775.00. But fluctuating around this morning’s 2773.50 bias-up signal into and out of Europe’s opens, and gradually firming another point, is now reacting down to 2770.50.

If, then…
The market has an interesting property when closing at support or resistance: immediately extending the trend requires gapping. So, we discussed at yesterday’s closing test of 2767.00 that rallying at all this morning would require gapping up. And preferably gapping up above 2773.50, which is also this morning’s bias-up signal. Now its overnight test positions the open for that gap up, which can easily extend to fill Monday and Friday’s 2778.00 and 2785.00 gaps. Or more, with the next gap outstanding at 2788.00 and “unfinished business above” 8-10 points higher, although two gap fills in a single session tend to be a session extreme. But the upside all depends upon at least triggering the 2773.50 bias-up signal, preferably maintaining a gap up and extending it. Holding its test and reversing down may not resume the decline, but overnight lows could be retested.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2770.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2773.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2777.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.