Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
There was nothing near-term bullish about retesting 2767.00 Sunday night and post-open Monday. Having held Friday to launch its intraday rally, its support properties were deleted, and now the decline must extend to test 2756.00. Quickly rejecting the overnight and intraday dip might have avoided the extension, except that the opening 15 minutes of volatility were still holding at or under 2767.00. More at than under, in this case. And that included gapping down through both bias-down parameters, expending a lot of energy. But it created a position of weakness, and any rally it launched would be doomed to failure. The morning rallied back up to its 2778.00 bias-down signal, which the afternoon retested before probing by 2 points through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
The party got started early last night. A quick retest of the 2780.00 post-close high reacted back down to 2778.00, and then plunged to 2762.50 on the announcement of new tariffs against China. Consolidating back up to 2767.00 plunged again to 2753.50 — possibly on news of China striking back, perhaps in reaction to news that General Mattis is visiting South Korea to reinstate their previously called-off joint drills. Regardless, consolidating around 2756.00 slid another 20 points into and out of Europe’s opens to test 2736.00. Bouncing since then has tested 2751.50.

If, then…
Unless already rejected overnight, the objective of Monday’s late break was to fill the gap back up to Friday’s 2784.50 close, at least 5-7 points higher if not 10. Any higher would have started putting into play the 2796.00 and 2798.00 objectives above. Unless already rejected overnight, which is the case. Exceeding 2756.00 by 20 points does not change the bearish-bullish path described Saturday, that started tracking Monday — to avoid further delay in testing 2756.00 so that selling pressure couldn’t refuel. Buyers didn’t gain any traction for Monday’s bounce, which did refuel selling pressure to a degree. The question is whether that added degree of refueling is being fulfilled by the overnight lows and their intraday retest. The answer will be in whether 2756.00 is recovered through the close.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2756.00 would be the best chance at rallying back up to 2767.00, regardless of the resolution from there.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s inside day persisted overnight until Europe’s opens. Then price action compensated for the delay. Ranging around Thursday’s 2788.00-2788.75 close broke lower to 2773.50, then fluctuated choppily between 2771.00-2782.00 through Friday’s open. A mid-morning plunge held a critical test of 2767.00 lower prior highs, and quickly recovered well before noon — leaving behind oversold RSIs that still require a retest. The afternoon bias environment exit surged to nearly fill the bap back up to Thursday’s close, holding at or above 2383.00-2384.00 through Fridays close. Bearish WedEX was nominally influential, if at all.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped-down to 2779.00 and snapped back up to attack 2787.00. The blip-down was repeated, slower at first, and then becoming a plunge to 2772.25. Flat-to-lower ranging is now attacking Friday’s low to within 1 point at 2766.50, erasing almost all of Friday’s recovery

If, then…
Oversold RSIs at Friday’s low require a retest, which can be neutralized at before the open. Testing it before the open can still use its support to launch a bounce. Maybe touching 2767.00 post-open and recovering through the opening 15 minutes can also bounce this morning. But there’s otherwise no bullish reason to be revisiting 2767.00, and its retest would likely extend down to 2756.00. That said, impatiently resuming the decline immediately does have the best chance at recovering sooner. The bearish WedEX didn’t trigger decisively Wednesday and wasn’t rejected decisively Thursday. So, I hesitate to infer anything from its limited influence Friday afternoon. But I would anticipate relentless trending through Monday morning in the opening 15 minutes’ direction, until disproved.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2775.00 would be likely to trigger the 2777.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2769.50 would be likely to exceed the 2772.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open was greeted back above the 2783.00-2784.00 support that had defined Monday-Wednesday’s lower-ends. That is, until Wednesday’s late break down to 2779.00-2780.00. Gapping back up and maintaining it formed an Isolation setup that would prevent sellers from gaining any traction for their efforts. But it couldn’t prevent them from trying, which is usual on the Isolation setup’s morning. So, a post-open surge up to 2794.00 reacted back down to 2781.00. Although the dip was recovered by noon to within ticks of the 2790.50 open, the balance of the session only ranged choppily sideways. And that is NOT usual for the Isolation setup’s afternoon. But it’s not yet disqualifying to maintain its objective to retest Wednesday’s 2796.00 high, and incidentally also unfinished business above at 2798.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s last swing ended back within ticks of the 2790.50 open. A hold-long setup narrowly avoided triggering. So, a dip initially returned down into the 2783.00-2784.00 range, and then recovered back up to the 2788.00-2788.75 range. But no overnight strength developed that would have been credible for extending higher. Which was explained at Europe’s opens, as forthcoming US trade tariffs on China are being blamed for triggering a quick slide to 2773.50. (Rumors are also surfacing of Merkel’s government being on the verge of collapse.) A blip-down just briefly probed a fresh low down to 2772.00.

If, then…
Avoiding a hold-long setup at yesterday’s close only indicated the vulnerability to overnight weakness, but it didn’t predict a drop. And now the market is responding to headlines that are not new, so they are already somewhat discounted. Which is not to say the market isn’t justified in discounting them more, but those discounted dips often snap back up. Meanwhile, there’s a race between fulfilling a couple of upside attractions, and eventually fulfilling the distribution that we’ve been discussing for the past two week. We’re still expecting a bearish WedEX influence this afternoon, regardless of the environment or level that greets it. In the interim, this being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through Friday’s noon hour. Other Friday Factors will be relevant, too. Like sponsorship being difficult to generate, and counter-trend sponsorship being more difficult. But counter-trend sponsorship always becomes easier to generate at a test of support/resistance. So, cobbling together a morning rally would still have plenty of resistance above.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2783.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2782.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2778.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2774.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2775.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Optimism was alive and, well, waning ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC events. The morning’s sponsorship triggered bias-up but left its 2798.00 target outstanding. It was attacked it to within 2 points at the morning’s retest of the 2796.00 overnight high, and becomes “unfinished business above.” Drifting lower through the noon hour greeted the FOMC statement at 2792.00. Its reaction down extended to 2781.50, which was retested after bouncing to 2793.50. The cash session close was testing 2779.00-2780.00, and futures settled another 2 ticks lower.

Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy ranging around Wednesday’s close eventually trended down, breaking to fresh lows after midnight. Bottoming soon after Europe’s opens, bouncing since then has retraced back up to yesterday’s 2779.00-2780.00 close, testing natural resistance at unchanged.

If, then…
Isolating the probe under yesterday’s low to the overnight could form an Isolation setup targeting a retest of yesterday’s high. Just holding above yesterday’s 2779.00-2780.00 late lows would be less convincing than to recover Monday-Tuesday’s 2783.00-2784.00 support. Recovering 2788.00-2788.75 through the open would be most convincing, and could also serve by proxy to invert yesterday’s late bearish WedEX. Perhaps that was only a temporary product of defensive posturing ahead of this morning’s ECB policy statement and Draghi Q&A. Otherwise, rallying this morning from a shallower open is still possible, even without exploiting the Isolation opportunity, or inverting the bearish WedEX. Delaying a rally this morning isn’t likely to rally at all, because then the paradigm is probably already shifting to the downside.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2780.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2773.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2784.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2786.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2788.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s late drop to 2784.00 had defined the overnight range, which was tested repeatedly to as low as 2782.25. Tuesday’s open was greeted back at the overnight range’s 2791.00 upper-end, which eventually extended up to 2794.00 at noon. Dropping into the final hour attacked the 2782.25 overnight low, where one more bounce took price back up to 2791.00. No new “unfinished business” was left outstanding, while the relevant 2793.00 level held a second consecutive test.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s final hour bounce extended into the Globex open, and soon probed fresh highs up to 2796.00. The probe above the prior session’s highs — like Sunday night’s probe of fresh highs — was retraced back under prior intraday highs to 2789.25. Retraced, but not necessarily rejected. Now yesterday’s 2794.00 high has been recovered.

If, then…
The pattern remains alive as another probe above prior highs is reversed. Last night was the second overnight reversal, and yesterday’s intraday reversal originated from a couple of ticks short of a fresh high. So, today may be the last opportunity for the distributive pressures to prove whether its sponsorship has been strong-handed. The strong hands in this pattern may have been patient sellers letting buyers expend their energy. The pattern often ends in a threatening downdraft that extends or is miraculously saved, accelerating in either direction. This series of higher highs hasn’t yet included sucha make-or-break crossroads, but the combination of failed probes while creeping closer to the 2800.00 area makes a reckoning likelier.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2790.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2792.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2795.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.