Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s action had promised an active session, and Monday didn’t disappoint. The overnight gap down to 2774.00 had been recovered to fluctuate around Friday’s 2782.50 close up to 2786.50, greeting Monday’s open above prior highs at 2784.00. Having escaped last week’s pattern of rejecting early fresh highs — or, at least, absorbing the pattern when it developed overnight — the morning did almost nothing. Actually, the morning did do one thing, ranging up to 2788.50, before the noon hour extended to 2794.25. No traction was gained during the afternoon, leaving the final hour to fluctuate narrowly sideways. A very late break under 2790.00 collapsed quickly to 2784.00-2785.00, but its timing was too late to be predictive, if it’s even sustainable.

Overnight action’s new info…
The late break proved to be temporary — three times. It was recovered completely soon after the Globex open, back up to Monday’s late sell signal at 2790.75. And then another collapse retested the 2784.00 low. Another recovery was also retraced by another collapse. Yet another recovery finally probed a fresh high up to 2792.00 into Europe’s opens. That’s three recoveries, but now fresh lows are probing yesterday morning’s low down to 2782.50. This leg isn’t a collapse, and there’s no current attempt to recover it.

If, then…
Yesterday’s 2794.25 high tested and held the rally’s next higher objective of 2793.00. There’s room for noise above it that could be tested by another recovery of yesterday’s late drop. But there’s no requirement for another recovery of yesterday’s late drop. This area is the last opportunity to end a correction before starting to require new all-time highs. Regardless, last week’s distribution and rotation out of leadership still threaten to repeat its pattern of rejecting a probe above the prior session’s highs — and a probe above the prior yesterday’s highs would be the likely objective of any post-open rally. Otherwise, even the most bullish longer-term scenario isn’t precluded from launching a pullback here, which is already underway if the open isn’t rallying.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2793.00 would be likely to trigger the 2790.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2788.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2787.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2782.00 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s intraday sell-off down to 2763.75 had not gained traction for its effort. That didn’t prevent probing lower overnight down to 2755.75. But the lack of intraday traction may have prevented the overnight sell-off from extending. Or from even being maintained. The fresh lows were already recovered before Friday’s open to form a bullish Isolation setup. The morning’s choppy start was entirely appropriate for the setup, as was the afternoon’s relentless trending. The setup’s likely objective to retest Thursday’s 2783.25 high was touched at the close. Both bias setups were also fulfilled, and no “unfinished business” was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped down to immediately test relevant support from Friday at 2775.00. That was the extent of selling pressure, other than a quick retest of the open’s 2774.00 low. But Friday’s 2782.50 close was soon attacked to within 1 point. A 4-point pullback was already recovering into Europe’s opens, and extended to touch what is this morning’s 2786.50 bias-up signal. Now Friday’s 2782.50 close is being tested as support.

If, then…
Perhaps the most relevant influence to monitor at the moment is last week’s pattern of rejecting early probes above prior highs. There were four, and there were different versions among them. Some of the reversals developed earlier than others, but last night’s would be the earliest if it qualifies through the open. That can cut either way, so not rejecting the fresh high would be bullish for extending higher this morning. Not rejecting the fresh high needs some work, since the fresh highs is currently struggling to hold above Friday’s high. It’s premature at this moment to call it either way — check the Market Tour recording for tactical discussion — but it’s not too late for reversing down to threaten the earlier 2774.00 Globex low. Exiting the open below it, like Friday’s fulfilled Isolation setup, would signal weakness through this morning or through tomorrow morning.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open under 2784.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2786.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2778.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2777.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2774.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open continued this week’s tradition of surging in some way — gapping up, recovering a post-open blip-down, simply surging — and then reversing down. The 13-point dive was measured as much as any previous reversal, but the half-hour timing was its fastest. So fast, that it left time for another bounce to also reverse down, this time 14 points and to fresh session lows. That was recovered to attack Wednesday’s highs, stopping short of a higher close that would have confirmed Wednesday’s breakout. No “unfinished business below” was left outstanding and sellers didn’t gain traction for their efforts. .

Overnight action’s new info…
Selling has resumed. Fluctuating around the 2774.00-2776.00 close began resolving down before midnight. Europe’s opens were greeted at 2766.50, which is a 61.8% retracement of the Double Bottom at yesterday’s lows. Its natural support held briefly before resolving down sharply to fresh lows at 2755.75. Price has been consolidating back up to the Double Bottom’s 2764.00 low.

If, then…
The trend had not reversed down through yesterday’s close, and yesterday’s sellers had not gained traction for their efforts, leaving potential for bouncing today back up toward yesterday morning’s highs. Probing lower overnight makes bouncing more difficult, but not if yesterday’s lows are holding as support through the open. Gapping down under Thursday afternoon’s lows would gain downside traction by proxy, forming a “session-long decline.” Isolating the fresh lows to the overnight would be bullish. Regardless, I would still beware of potential for an opening surge to fail anyway. Either way, Friday Factors are likely to exaggerate any resolution. Relative performance yesterday between NDX and the Dow will be very bearish if repeated today (I elaborate on this during today’s pre-open Tour, linked above).

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2759.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2761.50 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2765.50 would be likely at least to trigger bias-down at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2770.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap up to the morning’s bias-up signal failed its attempt to extend higher, putting into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal (2747.50 basis Sep). Probing back under Monday-Tuesday’s highs barely touched Tuesday’s cash session close before reversing back up. And up, and up, and up. The morning’s bias-up target was reached — but held into the noon hour, when recovering it could have invalidated the morning’s bias objective. The afternoon bias environment’s bias-up made no progress until the bias environment began lapsing. The delay was compensated by resuming the rally through its bias-up target. Buyers gained traction into the final hour, which might have been fulfilled by extending higher into and out of the close. Nevertheless, closing above the Monday-Tuesday multi-session range was a breakout, awaiting confirmation of a second consecutive higher close Thursday.

Overnight action’s new info…
Extending 2 points higher through Wednesday’s close to 2778.50 was retraced to 2774.00. Then the rally resumed into and out Europe’s opens to 2783.50. Reacting back down tested yesterday’s cash session close at 2776.00, which has bounced several points.

If, then…
REMINDER: The front-month rolls forward to Sep at Thursday’s open, which is trading at a 4-point premium to Jun... Already fulfilling the next higher objective yesterday at 2769.00-2770.25 — let alone trending through it — on the same day as first decisively exceeding its 2747.00-2751.00 trigger — isn’t likely to hesitate extending higher if the rally remains intact. Already dipping back down to unchanged does threaten to also test the earlier 2774.00 low, which would qualify as that hesitation. But maintaining a recovery above 2778.50 would be likely also to extend yesterday’s breakout.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2781.50 would be likely to trigger the 2779.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2775.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Volatility expanded Tuesday compared to Monday. The 2639.00-2752.00 range was an outside day, that still closed within Monday’s range. And like Monday, price action was centered around 2743.00-2747.00. No “unfinished business” was left outstanding by either session. This is more than enough to qualify as a multi-session range. Another interesting feature shared by the two sessions is their opening surges, and those opening surges being reversed back under the open. Tuesday’s post-open reversal even probed Monday’s low, and still avoided melting down. Buyers gained traction for their effort, but retraced too little to indicate that sellers were done.

Overnight action’s new info…
Where Tuesday afternoon’s rally stopped short, the overnight has stepped in. Globex’s open immediately pierced the intraday high up to 2753.25. That was the afternoon’s bias-up target, and its resistance quickly reacted back down 3 points. The rally soon resumed and extended to 2758.00 before dipping 4 points through Europe’s opens. Now 2758.00 is being attacked again.

If, then…
The market is a clearinghouse of competing influences. Breakouts identify the stronger influences, validated by confirmations and invalidated by rejections. Monday-Tuesday’s multi-session range is the influence of 2743.00-2747.00‘s attraction. Surges above and below its 4-point range are the attempts to shake loose of that attraction. Tuesday’s outside day doesn’t indicate any lesser attraction, because price continually returned to the 4-point range. The attraction isn’t shrinking, but the effort to shake loose of its attraction is growing. Gapping up this morning as is currently indicated remains vulnerable to reversing back down, like Monday and Tuesday’s opening surges. But unless the open takes their reactions back into the Monday-Tuesday range — and preferably back into 2743.00-2747.00‘s range — the breakout can extend intraday to 2765.00-2766.25 — the same aggressive and substantial rally Tuesday afternoon could have produced. The bearish scenario all but requires quickly rejecting the breakout’s sponsorship before it can attract reinforcements. A breakout either way beyond the Monday-Tuesday range would still require confirmation Thursday, more so for a break higher.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 Exiting the open under 2750.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2754.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2757.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up.