Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s open teased at launching another gap-and-run session. The open did gap up 8 points to 2742.00, and almost immediately extended another 8 points to 2749.25. That post-open surge was retraced almost immediately, too, but the gap up was maintained. Its extension never really repeated, nor was it rejected, containing all price action for the balance of the session. The 2743.00-2747.00 target area was thoroughly tested, and its range defined the session’s mid-range. Its upper-end defined the close — fulfilling buying pressure, without gaining traction or rejecting it.

Overnight action’s new info…
The 2743.00-2747.00 not only persisted initially overnight, and was also influential, pushing price back down from its upper-end to its lower-end. the lower-end was tested down to 2742.00 before midnight, then touched again at Europe’s opens. Quickly recovering back up to 2747.00 worked higher its way higher to attack 2752.00. A reaction down is now testing yesterday’s 2749.25 high as support.

If, then…
Yesterday was the first close above a 2-week trading range. Last week began with the first close under the same 2-week trading range. It was recovered back into the range instead of producing a second consecutive lower close. The pattern is slightly different now — especially having closed within 2743.00-2747.00 resistance instead of beyond it — but no second consecutive higher close today would still not be bullish for the rally effort. Yesterday’s highs are only being overlapped overnight, but that’s still an effort. So, dipping back to the overnight lows can’t be relied upon to recover. Holding at or above yesterday’s lows would keep the door open to extending higher.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2753.25 would be likely to trigger exceed the 2751.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2747.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s bias signal persisted through the noon hour, as it often does on Fridays. The week’s third gap-and-run participated as the open’s 16-point gap up extended another 16 points higher into the afternoon bias timing window. The bias environment ranged flat-to-lower into the final hour, which retraced half of the intraday gain. But only temporarily, bouncing into the close. All intraday upside objectives were fulfilled, and the afternoon bias environment was exited weakly, but sellers failed to exploit the vulnerabilities.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s Globex open gapped down and extended to attack Friday’s late pullback low down to 2729.00. The dip was soon recovered back into positive territory above 2735.00 and through Friday’s 2737.00 high to attack 2740.00. Consolidating back down to Friday’s highs into AND out of Europe’s opens seemed apprehensive, but eventually surged to 2746.75.

If, then…
As we discussed during the weekend’s Saturday Review, fresh highs were likely if not immediately rejecting Friday’s gains. Fresh highs would target 2743.00 or 2747.00, and would be vulnerable to reversing down. Coming to within 1 tick of the upper-target fulfills it, but its rejection must exit the open at least back under 2743.00, if not also back under Friday’s highs or close. Friday afternoon’s break lower had potential for extending to 2723.50-2724.25, which would be the likely objective if last night’s rally is rejected. Renewing the morning’s bias-up or simply holding it could evolve into another gap-and-run session, essentially triggering the bullish scenario described Saturday.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2743.00 would be likely to trigger the 2741.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2737.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2735.50 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s 2719.00 open was greeted by a very recent breakout from what had been a contained overnight range. Its The 2727.00 origin was likely to be retraced, despite extending down to the morning’s 2707.00 low. Its recovery peaked at the morning’s 2722.50 bias environment high, which was a 61.8% retracement of the pre-open breakout’s segment. And it was enough for another drop to the afternoon’s 2699.75 the afternoon’s low. Bouncing from there was still overlapping the morning’s low into the close — neither rejecting its break nor extending it.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sentiment shows no signs of pessimism as this morning’s Employment Situation report approaches. Thursday morning’s 2707.00 low held a couple of tests as support until finally surging to 2718.50 into of Europe’s opens (no defensive posturing). A quick 5-point dip recovered to probe a fresh high by 1 point, but only momentarily as price action since then has only fluctuated narrowly around the 2718.50 prior high.

If, then…
Closing back under the morning’s low decisively Thursday would have triggered a signal, that the corrective bounce from Tuesday afternoon had peaked, resuming Tuesday’s break under the prior two-week range. Still overlapping the morning’s low at least keeps the burden of proof on buyers. Buyers already failed to produce a second consecutive higher close Thursday above 2711.00 and 2715.00, and now a second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm the trend reversing down. Nevertheless, initial strength Friday would be credible for extending higher intraday. Otherwise, oversold RSIs at Thursday’s low weren’t retested overnight, and their attraction would be a minimum objective if gapping up is avoided or quickly falters.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary levels are not contemplated ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s 11-point gap up consolidated through the open, holding above the bias-up target to renew the bias-up signal. The second hour resumed the overnight rally to first test 2715.00, which was the bounce limit for defining the rally as only a correction off of Tuesday’s 2675.00. Extending into the afternoon bias environment peaked upon testing the 2727.25 bias-up target, which was probed momentarily by 2 points. A sell signal triggered too late to be sponsored by strong hands, limiting its reaction down to only a minimum 2721.50 target. No “unfinished business above” was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s late dip reacted back up through the close 5 points from its 2721.50 target to 2726.50. Globex gapped down to pierce what is this morning’s 2718.75 bias-down signal, which supported a brief consolidation that soon resolved back up. But resolving up only peaked upon retesting yesterday afternoon’s 2727.25 resistance, which has reacted back down to 2721.50.

If, then…
While Wednesday’s late dip to its 2721.50 target was sponsored by weak hands, the dip did serve to chip away at support there. Its intraday retest isn’t any likelier, but its intraday retest is now less likely to hold as support. Still, its break has room down to 2711.00 before signaling the trend reversing back down. Otherwise, having recovered to close above 2715.00, fresh highs are likely to probe above 2733.00. Meanwhile, keep in mind there is potential this week for a third session characterized by gapping open and running in the gap’s direction until fulfilling its objective. If today’s session is not that session — and it is currently indicated not to gap open — then that potential would compound and transfer to Friday.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2727.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2730.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2725.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2718.75 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Last week had ended with a bearish opening setup whose influence tends to persist for several days, including Tuesday. Italy’s political instability also greeted the end of a 3-day holiday weekend, triggering an overnight slide that probed the lowest levels in over 2 weeks sown to 2690.00. Bouncing through the open briefly attacked 2710.00 and held “higher prior lows” before plunging to attack 2676.00. Its late-afternoon retest held, and recovered back to the afternoon’s 2691.50 high — more than 15 points off the lows but still down nearly 30 points from Friday’s close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Several swings between 2693.50 and 2685.50 contained price action before rallying into Europe’s opens. And out. No defensive posturing there, and so far no apparent need for it as the rally has extended relentlessly since then. Yesterday’s opening range is being probed up to 2707.75.

If, then…
Is the near-term bearish influence of Friday’s open done? Regardless, it is about to leave “unfinished business below” at the gap back down to yesterday’s 2688.50-2692.00 close. This is an attraction below, and not selling pressure. A trigger is still needed to resume the decline. Until then, more “higher prior lows” up to 2715.00 from the two-week range above can be tested and still contain the corrective bounce from yesterday’s lows.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2701.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2700.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2698.00 would be likely only to trigger bias-up.