Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s probe above Wednesday’s highs up to 2737.75, fulfilling the likelihood that had been expected anticipated for two days. Its vulnerability to reversing down was anticipated as intraday action, but that already appeared as an 18-19 point slide to 2716.00 before Friday’s open. That also formed a bearish setup whose influence could persist after the weekend, having rejected fresh overnight highs to open back under earlier overnight lows. The bearish influence definitely persisted intraday by leaving “unfinished business above” at 2730.75 after holding a test of the morning’s bias-down signal. The afternoon’s fresh lows at 2713.75 didn’t extend down, which would have been surprising after already holding relevant support on a Friday morning. Bouncing into the close up to 2722.00 ended at 2718.00-2720.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s gap up to 2730.75 was presumably triggered by news of the N. Korea meeting’s reinstatement. Being “unfinished business above” from Friday, its resistance held until Europe’s opens. Being a knee-jerk reaction to non-financial news, the gap up was retraced down to 2718.25 by Monday morning. The holiday Globex session ended unchanged from Friday’s close. Monday night’s firm open attacked 2725.00 then eventually gave way to 2717.50. Only a brief bounce delayed tumbling through Europe’s opens down to 2690.25, the lowest levels in over two weeks.

If, then…
Friday’s open had rejected the overnight probe above Thursday’s highs by opening under the earlier overnight lows. Unless recovered through the open or the close, the setup’s bearish influence tends to extend through the following open, or else for multiple sessions. Retracing Sunday nght’s gap up can be attributed to that influence, despite the gap’s catalyst being only temporary, since the headline’s retracement didn’t otherwise have any timing element. So, if the setup’s bearish influence is persisting beyond yesterday’s influence, then it’s likely to persist through today. A post-open bounce off of support is still possible, but bounces should resolve down. Isolating the plunge to the overnight is the minimum requirement to abandoning any near-term bearish outlook — not impossible, but requiring a significantly higher open, preferably above 2716.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2701.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2708.00 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal, and essentially targeting 2683.50 and 2679.00.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Probing above Wednesday’s 2733.00 high Thursday morning was all but obligatory. Which almost happened, if not for the knee-jerk reaction to the North Korea news. The morning plunged from 2730.50 down to 2705.75. But it was a non-market headline, making its retracement likely. Which happened, to within 3 ticks. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at Thursday afternoon’s 2732.00 bias-up target.

Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-higher narrow ranging eked back up to Thursday’s 2730.50 opening high. And then higher, briefly consolidating at the 2732.00 unfinished business, and then spiking up to what is Friday morning’s 2737.50 bias-up target. Sliding down to 2728.50 into and out of Europe’s opens (defensive posturing) wasn’t recovered immediately. And it then it wasn’t recovered entirely, bouncing only to 2735.00 before reversing down under 2725.00.

If, then…
The attraction of yesterday’s “unfinished business above” at 2732.00 would have helped to resume the rally Friday morning. But its test is already fulfilled overnight, as is the likely probe of fresh highs. They’re not UNlikely to be tested intraday, but that’s not required. And their retests won’t be likely at all if the open is already breaking back under the earlier 2727.00 overnight low, which is now being probed. Remember that the bullish influence of a 3-day holiday weekend has been undermined twice, and a third time shouldn’t be surprising. Recovering from negative territory through or before the open to probe fresh highs would still be vulnerable to reversing down, but much less so.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2727.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2730.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2733.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Greeting Wednesday’s open after collapsing overnight stumbled into a choppy morning. The wide 2708.50-2721.25 first swing was followed by 3 narrower, all supported by the overnight low’s base. Then the FOMC Minutes triggered a surge, before the afternoon bias environment had even come within view of lapsing. Tuesday’s closing bounce to 2727.25 was retraced, and extended up to 2733.00. That’s flat with Monday’s close, which was also trying to recover the 2732.00 upper-end of the prior Monday afternoon’s consolidation.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s last-minute cash session high had started reacting down into the futures close, equating to 2731.00-2733.00. Globex quickly extended the reaction down further to attack 2720.00, where the direction almost immediately began reversing back up. Trending up both into Europe’s opens (no defensive posturing), and out, was retraced back to yesterday’s 2733.00 high. Its reaction down to 2727.25 is now trying to resume the initial overnight dip’s recovery.

If, then…
Wednesday’s recovery came from an overnight decline. The decline was substantial and poised to be very productive. That might trump the otherwise bullish seasonality of the upcoming 3-day U.S. holiday weekend. It’s not affecting Thursday’s open, but we may be discussing it tomorrow. Not recovering initial weakness through Thursday’s open would still be credible for retracing much or all of Wednesday’s recovery — perhaps even resuming the prior night’s decline. Meanwhile, not posturing defensively ahead of Europe’s opens has departed from the recent pattern. And the departure is being rewarded by extending higher without delay. Probing above yesterday’s highs this morning remains likely, which the seasonal bullishness could exploit for more upside follow-through, unless rejected early similar to Tuesday’s open.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2734.00 would be likely to trigger the 2732.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2730.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open stretched the rubber band. Just a little, immediately fulfilling the morning’s 2741.50 bias-up target. Then it snapped back down. Just a little, filling the gap back to Monday’s close, which was at the upper-end of last Monday afternoon’s 2725.00-2732.00 consolidation. That stopped short of retracing the entire overnight rally. But the afternoon bias environment’s exit at 2737.50 made up for the delay, sliding through the close down to 2721.50 support. Bouncing through the close touched 2727.25 resistance, but didn’t recover it.

Overnight action’s new info…
Extending down without delay was likely, as we discussed at yesterday’s close. Satisfying an objective but not yet retracing its last support (or resistance) tends to invite reinforcements. Last night’s action fulfilled this setup, eventually resuming the decline to test fresh lows at 2717.00. Bouncing ahead of Europe’s opens (NO defensive posturing) resolved down sharply, resuming the decline to 2704.50.

If, then…
2704.50 is an important area. Its test formed the week-old low that ended the prior drop from 2741.00. Now yesterday’s retest of 2741.00 has formed a Double Top, making the 2704.50 area its interim low. After correcting the pattern with a drop targeting 2675.50-2677.25, the rally often resumes. Not always — a Double Top can be durable. Resuming the rally before fully probing the Double Bottom’s interim low can make its eventual top more durable. The downside can quickly unfold if post-open bounces hold Thursday-Friday’s 2712.00-2713.00 “higher prior lows” as resistance. Otherwise, any bullish scenario at least requires recovering 2717.00. Meanwhile, the impending 3-day holiday weekend’s seasonal bullishness (i.e. flat-to-higher influence) makes today THE day for bigger money to position during maximum liquidity. So, holding or breaking the interim low’s test today would likely dictate price action into the weekend.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2711.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2713.00 bias-down target through 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Yesterday was choppy and busy, but is essentially defined by 2-3 bigger surges and their retracements. Sunday night’s gap up from Friday’s 2712.00 close extended up to 2736.25. That was a sentiment extreme and spent the balance of the night retracing down to 2724.50. Monday’s opening surge retested it, and then probed it by 3 points up to 2737.25. The balance of the morning was spent retracing that to within 3 ticks of the overnight low at 2725.25. An afternoon bounce recovered only to the overnight high before ranging sideways into the 2733.00 close. The close was still overlapping the upper-end of last Monday’s 2725.00-2732.00 consolidation.

Overnight action’s new info…
An initial calm soon began firming, and then rallying, and eventually extended back up to within 1 tick of yesterday’s 2739.25 high. Not being intraday, that isn’t considered as stopping pessimistically short, but it is a retest. And it’s interesting that there was no defensive posturing ahead of Europe’s opens, which is optimism.

If, then…
Testing the lower-end of last Monday’s 2725.00-2732.00 consolidation last week had reacted down several times, sometimes considerably. Closing decisively above the consolidation’s upper-end would have signaled a new upleg underway. Since still overlapping 2732.00 at yesterday’s close hasn’t reversed down overnight, quickly attracting reinforcements could still extend a breakout up to 2751.00 before failing. Quickly attracting reinforcements, or not, could dictate the balance of the session — especially after a single-minded overnight rally, which is inherently vulnerable to reversing at the open.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2737.50 would be likely to trigger the 2735.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2743.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2741.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.