Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s 7-point rally had reversed down 14 points overnight to 2727.00. Friday’s expiration session started off choppily in negative territory, and soon extended the overnight dip by another 4 points to 2709.00. That was only temporary as the balance of the session ranged between the 2712.00 pre-open low, and unchanged at 2720.00. This otherwise sideways range was also defined by lower highs, and ended at its lower-end, barely fulfilling the afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence.

Overnight action’s new info…
The new week begins with a relief rally. Or, more precisely, a relief gap up. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin had commented about backing off of the trade war with China, and Giuliani speculated about soon ending the Mueller probe of Trump. Sunday night’s open gapped up sharply and extended to a 21-point gain from Friday’s close to touch 2736.25. Price quickly settled back down to range narrowly at 2730.00. The calm was interrupted by sliding for an hour to greet Europe’s opens at 2724.00. The defensive posturing has been retraced back up to 2730.00, but no higher.

If, then…
Having complied in at least a minimal sense with the bearish WedEX Friday afternoon, a more obvious post-open bearish influence is likely Monday morning. This is regardless of the opening print, which is indicated to gap up. The overnight high isn’t a “new Globex trend extreme” that would require intraday retest. Except for the opening 15 minutes of volatility’s potential for volatility, the balance of the morning should trend down. WedEX’s influence is limited to the morning. Assuming the bearish influence succeeds, then the afternoon could recover entirely — similar setups have done exactly that. But the current Dow outperformance and underperforming NDX make further downside likelier into the close. That’s a lot of bearish influence. So, avoiding a bearish influence altogether this morning should prove very bullish instead.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2725.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2719.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2730.75 would be likely to exceed the bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday morning’s rally repeated Wednesday’s equally doomed attempt, doomed for buyers not having gained traction the prior day. That usually means they don’t try, but in these these past two instance they did. So, despite quickly recovering from a  post-open 7-point plunge that probed overnight lows down to 2713.50, the morning bias environment reversed up to touch 2732.00. And despite having touched 2732.00, the afternoon bias environment reversed down sharply to touch 2711.00. A 12-point bounce into the close only pierced positive territory before dipping to attack 2716.00 into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
A choppy range was able to get back up to resistance, and has converted it into support, but has been unable to get away from it. Blipping-down to retest 2716.00 snapped back up to the late-afternoon bounce’s 2723.00 peak — resistance. Probing gradually higher and higher eventually surged up to 2727.00 through Europe’s opens. No defensive posturing preceded it, which was unusual for this week. Which may explain the quick reaction down to 2720.00. Another attack on 2727.00 is also reacting down, back to 2723.00 — now support.

If, then…
At least it sounds bearish. Ill-timed rallies that doomed them to failure, tests of higher prior lows and prior highs that were rejected back under support, recovered dips that failed to gain traction. But sellers have yet to exploit these upside weaknesses. Yesterday’s rejection of the morning’s fresh recovery high by the afternoon’s complete retracement back down to the morning’s low still closed above Wednesday’s prior low. Although sellers gained no traction otherwise, but they can by proxy of opening weakly enough this morning. But there’s no assurance of that, as bearish WedEX’s influence is scheduled for this afternoon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2727.25 would be likely to trigger the 2725.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2721.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s initial dip down to 2704.25 had gradually recovered 7-8 points to unchanged. Briefly probing higher to attack 2715.00 was reversed back down to 2704.25. “If at first,” right? Well… The half-hour preceding Wednesday’s open recovered back up to unchanged and the open quickly extended through it to probe the overnight highs. The noon hour’s higher highs touched the afternoon’s 2727.25 bias-up target, before bias-up was even triggered, so the bias environment only ranged sideways. The final hour’s failed attempt to break higher was instead snapped back down to 2717.50, where a snap back up barely recovered back above the morning’s highs to 2723.00. WedEX triggered a bearish signal.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s late recovery firmed only a little higher into Globex’s open, and then began reversing down. Gradually at first, retracing 61.8% of the bounce back down to 2720.00. The rest was retraced into Europe’s opens to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2715.75 bias-down signal (defensive posturing?). Since then, the market is ranging around yesterday’s late 2717.50 low.

If, then…
Several factors have warned us that yesterday’s rally was sponsored by weak hands. The pre-open defensive posturing, rallying sharply to peak during the unpredictive noon hour, peaking during that window at a target, and holding a test of “higher prior lows.” All of which could be overcome by gapping up today above the 2732.00 upper-end of those higher prior lows, the opposite of which is indicated by the overnight action. Any shallower post-open strength would be vulnerable to failure. Now the question is whether that bearishness takes control post-open to retrace the rally back down to Tuesday’s lows. Posturing defensively ahead of Europe’s opens hasn’t reacted with a relief rally, so repeating the same sentiment could actually restart yesterday’s late reversal down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2714.00 would be likely to trigger the 2715.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2723.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday night’s eventual slide had fulfilled the intraday’s “unfinished business below” at 2721.50. The recovery attempt failed, and Tuesday’s cash session was greeted by a larger and steeper drop to 2712.50 before the open. And that was extended to 2703.25 through the first half-hour. But that was also the end of the downside momentum. No upside momentum replaced it, so several wide swings defined a 11-12 point range that gradually pierced lower and lower lows down to 2700.50. The last half-hour bounced back up to the range’s last relative high at 2711.00-2712.00. It had become too late anyway to recover anything predictive, or to offset that the range had gained no traction either way.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s post-open range has largely held overnight, but for a brief probe above it. The Globex open had quickly retraced yesterday’s late surge by 61.8% to 2704.50, but it was eventually recovered back up to 2711.00-2712.00. Dipping to 2707.00 ahead of Europe’s opens was also recovered, and briefly extended to attack 2715.00. That was retraced as quickly back down to retest 2707.00, before recovering again to retest 2711.00-2712.00 — and being a 61.8% retracement of the earlier brief attack on 2715.00, its calculable resistance has pushed price back down to attack 2707.50.

If, then…
One of the instructions from Tuesday’s Market Wrap was that gapping up today above yesterday morning’s 2715.50 high would be credible for bouncing intraday. Both its resistance and its relevance are confirmed by having tested it overnight to within 3 ticks, and then reversing back down 8-1/2 points to that leg’s origin. Retracing that overnight high by 61.8% is calculable resistance, and happens to coincide with the natural resistance of yesterday afternoon’s highs. Their resistance has combined to push price back down sharply, but not yet irrecoverably. Overcoming resistance could rally through the morning. Otherwise, it’s not too late to greet the open back down at yesterday afternoon’s 2701.00 lows to try snapping back up again. But failing to hold the low would be credible for probing fresh lows, to 2695.00-2696.00 and possibly to 2689.00 or 2682.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2707.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2703.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2711.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2716.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2713.50 would actually be likely to also trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday paid the price, or start paying it, for Friday not actually having corrected Wednesday and Thursday’s surges. Meanwhile, Monday was also the second consecutive session to probe fresh highs and then reverse back into negative territory. That’s less relevant for Friday, which isn’t as relevant of a session, but the combination is distributive anyway. Monday’s 2724.25 fell back into “lower prior highs” at Friday afternoon’s range. RSIs were only on the cusp of being overbought, which would otherwise be “unfinished business” above. And unfinished business below was left outstanding at 2721.50. But both recent sessions avoided closing negative, and the ongoing trend of higher highs and higher lows remains intact, so there’s not yet a trend reversal signal.

Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging narrowly between 2728.00-2731.00 started breaking lower on China’s disappointing economic data. Extending to 2720.50 fulfilled Monday’s unfinished business below. Its reaction bounced into and out of Europe’s opens on the way up to 2727.00. Its 61.8% retracement down to this morning’s 2724.00 bias-down signal was recovered to attack 2729.00. That’s unchanged from yesterday’s close, and natural resistance, which has reacted down to attack 2724.00.

If, then…
The likelihood for a failed probe lower wasn’t necessarily fulfilled by recovering the overnight dip. It did neutralize the nearest attraction below, and is trying to avoid triggering the bias-down signal. The recovery so far is only back to unchanged, which is also natural resistance. Triggering bias-down is still possible, and would be credible for probing Thursday afternoon’s low under 2713.00. Otherwise, rallying this morning  could be limited to 2737.50, or a retest of yesterday’s highs — which would be bullish if it were to avoid snapping back down sharply.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2725.25 would be less likely to trigger the 2724.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2727.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2732.25 bias-up signal.