Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up and probe of fresh highs was rejected after fulfilling the morning’s 2730.00 bias-up target up to 2732.50. Its reversal probed the open’s 2720.00 low by 1 point during the noon hour. The afternoon bias environment dipped 2-4 points into negative territory to 2716.75. But the trend never reversed down. And the balance of the session rallied 10-13 points up to 2727.00-2730.00. It was the first close above the rally’s 2721.50 target, although it was still being overlapped.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open spiked up to 2736.00, and consolidated briefly down to 2733.50. Gradually firming extended higher to pierce Monday morning’s 2739.25 bias-up target by a couple of ticks. Its 2-point pullback recovered to 2741.00 after midnight, but price action since then has trended back down to 2733.50.

If, then…
Friday’s pullback was relatively shallow to correct the two strong days preceding it. It wasn’t too brief, except that Fridays are already less relevant. So, this leaves the question whether resuming the rally requires a deeper pullback. And a deeper pullback would raise the question whether the rally had ended already, and the deeper pullback is actually the trend reversing down. Avoiding any dip to immediately extend higher can’t afford to hesitate, or else it would be vulnerable — if not likely — to duplicate Friday morning’s temporary rally, but with a more permanent reversal down. Greeting the open in negative territory could mean that last night’s action produced that temporary rally, and has reversed the trend down. Extending the rally depends largely on maintaining excessive optimism.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2737.50 would be likely to trigger the 2733.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2729.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday duplicated Wednesday’s strong intraday rally. Both gapped up, extended sharply higher into their afternoon bias environments, and then ranged sideways through the close around their next higher objectives. Thursday’s pre-open dip had touched Wednesday’s 2696.75 objective as support before rallying to its 2721.50 objective, which was tested up to 2725.00. Reacting down to 2713.00 was recovered up to 2721.50 through the cash session close. No “unfinished business above” was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Globex was greeted back down at 2716.00 which had been the target of Thursday’s last reaction down. A gradual recovery to 2723.00 was suddenly retraced to 2716.50 before Europe’s opens (defensive posturing?) but the dip was soon recovered. And now the recovery has extended to probe yesterday’s highs attacking 2627.00.

If, then…
The similarities between Wednesday and Thursday’s consecutive rallies don’t dictate Friday’s pattern, but they do narrow down its possibilities. Thursday afternoon’s pattern does have a likely resolution, which is to gap up (i.e. to already extend the rally overnight) or at least to trend up into the open. Yesterday’s highs are finally being probed, or initially being probed — it’s still early. Another gap up? The Wednesday-Thursday similarities suggest this setup won’t extend higher, so we would expect it to reverse down. Opening flat or backing-and-filling could still resolve up, but would at least be vulnerable to reversing down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2725.00 would be likely to trigger the 2722.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2718.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Friday morning bias signals tend to persist through the noon hour.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s retest of Monday’s highs up to 2684.25 was retraced down to 2677.00 into Wednesday’s open. That wasn’t deep enough to resume the rally. Also, the open had slipped back under Monday’s prior highs, isolating the overnight gains and their upside momentum. So, the incredibly noisy wide morning bias environment eventually dipped deeper to 2672.00. That worked, snapping back up through the afternoon bias environment to 2700.00. The balance of the session ranged around it back down to 2691.00. The rally gained no traction for its effort.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday afternoon’s ranging persisted until finally probing fresh highs before midnight. Hovering up to 2702.50 wasn’t moved by Europe’s opens, soon dipping to 2698.00. Its reaction has been retraced lower to 2696.50, unchanged from yesterday’s close.

If, then…
Having gained no traction for its effort Wednesday, a durable trend Thursday morning must begin by gapping open. Trending attempts aren’t otherwise required. But a trending attempt without gapping open is still possible, but shouldn’t get very far before reversing back through unchanged. Meanwhile, having probed yesterday’s highs overnight, opening back under the 2692.75 overnight low would be vulnerable to retracing yesterday’s rally. Holding an opening test of 2692.75 would instead launch a new rally leg.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2693.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2690.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2695.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2701.00 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Probing overnight under Monday’s 2662.50 low by 4 points was largely repeated through Tuesday’s open. But Monday afternoon’s slide didn’t resume, and bias down didn’t trigger. Wash, rinse, repeat. The morning’s bounce up to 2674.25 was retraced to fresh lows during the noon hour. But the afternoon’s bias-down signal didn’t trigger, either. Wash, rinse, repeat, again. A shallower bounce to 2669.50 was reversed to session lows at 2652.25, and — in-line with the session’s tradition — also bounced. Monday’s 2670.00 close was being tested at the close to essentially finish the session unchanged.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s last bounce was extended into Globex to probe 3 points above Monday’s 2670.00 close. Its reaction down to 2666.50 was narrowly consolidated, and almost entirely recovered to test 2672.00. A 3-point dip ahead of Europe’s opens (defensive posturing) was recovered back up to and through the earlier high — first a little, and then a lot, extending to 2684.50. Its reaction is now testing 2681.00 as support.

If, then…
Recovering from several intraday dips can form accumulation. That’s the basis for a bottom, but the setup isn’t complete until triggered. Tuesday’s recoveries stopped short of producing a trigger, including the close which was not above a prior high or resistance. But gapping up Wednesday can serve as a proxy for that role. Meanwhile, even the most bearish scenario did not preclude retesting Monday’s highs up to 2684.25. Now Wednesday’s open is indicated to gap up  Having tested 2684.25 overnight, holding its retest through the open could launch a reversal down. Tuesday’s accumulative behavior can be more bullish only by attracting reinforcements, which is difficult when gapping up to resistance. Extending higher through the open would suggest that reinforcements had arrived, introducing potential to 2696.75.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2684.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2681.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2693.00. Exiting the open above 2677.00 would at least be likely to trigger the 2674.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Already rallying overnight up to the 2674.00 objective created a new requirement for extending the rally, or else it would fail. The requirement was fulfilled by exiting the open above 2674.00 to prevent trapping shorts. Renewing the bias-up signal a half-hour later helped, too. But the next higher target at 2684.25 was only attacked, and only eventually, as the underlying strength’s influence mostly applied to recovering dips. The afternoon’s probe to fresh highs only stretched the rubber band up to 2681.50, and then snapped it back down to 2662.50. Oversold RSIs and the gap back down to Friday’s futures close provided obligatory support that reacted up to its 2672.00 objective.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s drop has resolved down, but not immediately. Monday’s late bounce up to its 2672.00 was initially retraced to test 2665.00 through the Globex open. Two more attacks on 2672.00 reacted down to higher lows, forming an Ascending Triangle. Blipping up at Europe’s opens only stretched the rubber band, which snapped back down through the Triangle’s uptrending support. The sentiment shift developed into a 2-hour slide that has probed yesterday’s low to twice test 2659.00–2660.00.

If, then…
Having originated at Thursday’s lows, did the latest recovery attempt peak yesterday at 2681.00 instead of 2684.25? That’s likely, but it doesn’t prevent retesting yesterday’s highs today. Not even the overnight probe under yesterday’s late low prevents retesting yesterday’s highs today. Entering a timing window even just attacking Friday’s late dip to 2657.00 would likely prevent retesting yesterday’s highs… for a long time. After spending almost all of Monday in hover mode, there’s no reason to further delay its afternoon slide. So, no reason to further delay the slide, and indicated to open near a pivotal point — if these two such bearish conditions can’t produce a bearish open or bearish morning, then a retest of yesterday’s high could still develop.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2659.00 would be likely to trigger the 2663.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2668.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.