Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
A weak reaction to Friday morning’s Employment Situation report was likely to be false. So, gradually dipping under the overnight range’s 2623.50 lows down to 2612.25 held its test of the 2620.00 bias-down signal before rallying back up through the open. And through the bias timing window, and into the noon hour. The morning’s rally was no-bias trending that would have required being retraced, except its sponsorship exited the bias environment above its bias-up target. The rally extend through the noon hour to trigger bias-up, exceeding the afternoon’s bias-up target to exit the bias environment at 2669.25. Its reaction down to 2657.00 bounced 6 points into the close, overlapping Wednesday’s 2658.50 high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open spiked up slightly to attack Friday’s high, and soon surged to probe it up to attack 2673.00. Flat to higher ranging since then has held this morning’s 2668.00 bias-up signal tests as support. Attacks on this morning’s 2674.00 bias-up target are now being exceeded by a surge attacking 2676.00.

If, then…
Only overlapping Wednesday’s 2658.50 high at Friday’s close meant that extending to 2674.00 and 2684.25 was not necessarily in-play. Gapping up today could have qualified as a signal by proxy. Thta was until 2674.00 was neutralized to within 1 tick overnight. Now, the extension can be signaled by recovering 2674.00 through the open. A pullback through the open could still be absorbed, and ranging through the morning could resolve up. But touching 2674.00 must exit that window above it, or else risk attracting strong-handed sellers. Dipping back into negative territory wouldn’t be easily tolerated, nor would any price action that suggests Wednesday’s 2658.50 high is holding as resistance.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2664.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2668.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2670.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2677.00 would suggest the 2674.00 bias-up target will be exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2684.25.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s 2623.50 opening print was already under Wednesday’s last-minute 2629.00 low. And it quickly resolved down, eventually a lot, attacking 2591.00 at the bias environment low. Already bouncing into the noon hour was extended through the noon hour, and then a little higher to 2632.50 at the bias environment high. That was actually probed momentarily by 2 points while ranging sideways through the close, supported by 2623.50… the opening print..

Overnight action’s new info…
It’s certainly possible that the momentum of Thursday afternoon’s recovery was absorbed by the negative news story about the President’s lawyer. Or, not: Almost completely retracting its first two versions hasn’t seen any effect. Sideways ranging has been contained between 2623.00-2633.50, remaining within yesterday’s late range.

If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s bias environment was greeted by two strong trending actions, which usually produces one more. But yesterday afternoon’s bias environment didn’t. It ranged narrowly sideways, which was least likely. This doesn’t invalidate the setup, rather it increases the stored energy, making a powerful move likely. It could have developed overnight, but narrow ranging persisted instead. If the Employment Situation report’s reaction is only shallow, then I’ll expect it to expand throughout the day. Otherwise, since no traction was gained yesterday afternoon, gapping open beyond either end of yesterday’s range is likely to extend in that direction.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday afternoon’s rally from 2623.00 up to 2658.00 was corrected overnight but also recovered overnight to up to 2658.50. But no higher, despite the afternoon rally having gained traction. Monday’s decline had not attracted durable buying overnight, either. The consequence to each was morning weakness. Wednesday’s weakness reflected anxiousness ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement, which reacted back up to 2658.50. That was until the bias environment exit, which suddenly rejected the recovery, leaving behind overbought RSIs yet to be retested. The balance of the session plunged to 2629.00, retracing nearly all of Tuesday afternoon’s rally. A small late bounce was early enough to close back above 2630.50 and avoid triggering a hold-short setup.

Overnight action’s new info…
The plunge initially extended to 2624.25, stopping optimistically short of touching Tuesday afternoon’s 2623.25 low. A bounce to 2630.50 was retraced entirely back to the low, which was recovered back up to 2630.50. Europe’s opens were greeted at the upper-end of this channel, which then broke higher to 2636.25. Now that has been retraced entirely back down to 2628.00.

If, then…
Isolating the overnight lower lows by opening Thursday back above 2635.00-2638.00 would be bullish. That was being attempted after Europe’s opens, and now not so much. There’s still time, but only a little. Retesting overnight lows and recovering into the noon hour might still be able to launch a recovery. In either case, the upside reward is a retest of Wednesday’s 2658.50 high, which would all but ensure retesting Monday’s 2783.25 high. Extending yesterday afternoon’s plunge could start to topple the dominoes still waiting below. .

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2633.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2638.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2630.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2626.00 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open was greeted back at the lower-end of its overnight range. The overnight range had still felt the influence and momentum of Monday’s steep decline. Its minimum objective of 2641.50 had been touched earlier overnight but its rejection failed. The next lower objective at 2635.00-2638.00 was met during the open, and its break came within 1 tick of the 2623.00 target at the afternoon low. The bias environment reversed up to recover all of those objectives, and the balance of the session extended to recover positive territory up to 2653.00-2654.00. The rally gained traction for its effort.

Overnight action’s new info…
A tree fell in a forest last night. Globex began like a mirror image of the prior night, immediately extending the late intraday surge to 2658.00, then immediately starting a narrow range between 2654.00-2656.00. That was blind-sided by headlines that Mueller wants an interview. And wants it bad. Like, subpoena in the pocket bad. Not terribly surprising news, but thin volume at that time enabled a 12-point plunge to 2643.50. The balance of the night gradually recovered the original surge’s high up to 2658.50. Another plunge to 2651.00 has quickly retraced up 61.8% and more to 2657.00.

If, then…
Having gained traction for its effort, Tuesday’s recovery was likely to extend higher today, unless the open were to gap down sufficiently. The overnight knee-jerk reaction to Mueller’s big subpoena headline was an opportunity to gap down, but it was absorbed. Its retracement suggests that fresh highs are still intended, at least this morning. The second overnight dip suggests that fresh highs might not be tenable. But yesterday’s traction combined with now recovering two overnight plunges also requires probing higher immediately, or else a post-open plunge becomes likely. The afternoon’s FOMC policy statement’s reaction will depend greatly on what is accomplished this morning.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2660.25 would be likely to trigger the 2658.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2655.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The week started by tracking the topping template of testing 2681.00 and rejecting it back under 2677.00. The reversal was likely but not required. And it had to develop through a relevant timing window, which it did, as the morning slid to 2663.00 and the afternoon extended down to 2646.00. The reversal was likely a delayed reaction to headlines announcing Netanyahu’s planned speech, and the speech’s eventual delivery helped the decline to extend sharply lower. An anchor of sorts had formed by holding above 2677.00 through the morning’s bias timing window, which was capable of launching another probe of fresh highs. So, there is a question outstanding whether the decline was artificial and recoverable, or organic and on its way lower.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s late 13-point drop from 2659.00 to 2646.00 extended without delay to 2641.25 through the Globex open. That leg was retraced by 61.8% to attack 2654.00 ahead of Europe’s opens. But Europe’s open were having none of it, and the earlier low was attacked to within 3 ticks. Now that leg has been retraced by 61.8% to 2649.25.

If, then…
Monday’s decline didn’t gain traction, so gapping up above its 2658.50 prior highs would likely reverse the trend back up. That’s not currently indicated, but for future reference, the minimum reward for reversing yesterday’s trend before it gains traction would be to probe fresh highs up to 2684.25. It would also prove the decline’s catalyst was artificial. I noted in yesterday’s Market Wrap that the artificial catalyst can still be productive down to 2641.50-2641.75, which overnight action has now tested — and its test was clearly influential by the bounce it produced. A temporary bounce, but maintaining an open above yesterday’s 2646.00 low can isolate the overnight probe and try reversing the trend up. Not yet reversing up through Tuesday’s open would next target 2635.00-2638.00. And then 2623.00, back into position for toppling the dominoes below.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2650.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2642.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2641.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2656.75 would be likely to trigger the 2653.25 bias-up signal.