Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Already firming into Thursday’s close and overnight, Friday’s Employment Situation report was approached optimistically. Its knee-jerk reaction was a 7-1/2 point spike up to 2893.50 that was retraced entirely through the open. The open recovered to a fresh high at 2896.50. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways, firming to 2898.00 through the close. The next higher objective at 2902.00 was put in-play officially, and another new trend high close became a requirement for having closed at a trend high on Friday.

Overnight action’s new info…
Having no new guidance from the weekend, overnight action is recalling that Friday lacked upside momentum. But not before probing higher with enough complexity to form a “new Globex trend extreme.” Initially firming from its 2896.00 open, Sunday night soon blipped-up to 2899.50. And then back down 10 points to 2889.50 by midnight. So, that’s a probe above the prior session’s high, reversed back under the 2896.00 earlier Globex low. And through it down to 2889.00. Firming again into Europe’s opens has only now tried extending to test 2894.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Initial overnight strength stopped short of its next higher objective at 2902.00. That’s a calculable objective, but just probing above the prior session’s high can fulfill structural upside pressures. And reversing back under the earlier Globex low could form a bearish “Globex-flip.” The setup requires maintaining the reversal through the open, along with any test of support. Its reward would trend down for at least the morning (also through tomorrow morning if not reversed this afternoon). All of which could develop while leaving two structural setups outstanding. There was already Friday’s new trend high close requiring at least another eventually. Now there’s also the new Globex trend extreme requiring intraday retest. Either could rescue a pullback at some point. The question is whether the rescue prevents or ends a post-open pullback. The answer would come already by preventing, or not, a gap down under the earlier Globex low.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2888.75 would be likely to trigger the 2890.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2893.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday wasn’t likely to trend unless trending was established early. Which wasn’t likely, when greeting the open unchanged from Wednesday’s 2880.00 close. But the open soon surged to 2885.75, neutralizing the required gap-fill back up to Wednesday’s 2884.75 open above all prior trend highs. Bias parameters created an attraction below at 2872.50, which was tested down to 2871.00 during the noon hour — recovering before the noon hour’s exit. Trending was unlikely, and the trending attempt failed. So the balance of the session gravitated to the range’s earlier upper-end at of 2884.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
As if trying to rekindle the magic of Tuesday night, a favorable China trade headline at 8:00 ET triggered a surge. Tuesday night’s reaction had surged 13 points and extended to 21 points, probing fresh highs. Last night’s surge 7-point surge didn’t probe fresh highs, and didn’t extend. At least, not yet. Europe’s opens touched Wednesday’s 2889.25, which didn’t require being touched.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Bouncing back to yesterday’s opens wasn’t required yesterday, so that qualifies as last-minute optimism. Probing yesterday’s highs overnight is more last-minute optimism, too. Both can prove bearish from a contrarian perspective. Touching Wednesday’s high overnight or only piercing it without complexity doesn’t reflect strong-handed sponsorship. So, resolving up this morning would likely put into play the next higher objective at 2902.00. Meanwhile, favorable knee-jerk reaction to the news could fail be reversed back down before having a chance to resolve up this morning. Finally, this being a Friday, reacting in either direction — initially or ultimately — would be vulnerable extending into the afternoon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] There are no preliminary indications ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday was greeted by an overnight overly-optimistic reaction to China trade headlines that had rescued an early dip to 2865.00, and reversed it up to 2886.00. That tested the rally’s next higher objective at 2885.00, which triggered a 10-point dip to support. Its recovery tested the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” up to 2889.25 by noon, but no higher which could have put into play the next higher objective. Instead, a deeper pullback fell to 2869.00 at the afternoon low, breaking under the afternoon’s 2881.00 bias-down signal during a no-bias environment. The no-bias trending required its retracement, which a very late bounce did after extending through the close. But a retest of the 2884.75 open’s gap up remains outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Choppiness has been scaled down dramatically since Wednesday’s close, but price is still fluctuating relatively widely. Yesterday’s late bounce had extended to fulfill the 2881.00 retracement up to 2883.00, and then reacted down to 2876.00 by midnight. Extending lower through Europe’s opens touched 2874.00, and reacted up to 2880.00. Price is essentially flat from yesterday’s close.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Extending or reversing the trend will be difficult today if not already underway this morning, before the afternoon becomes inhibited ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report. Except for the “unfinished business” above at yesterday’s 2884.75 open, nothing currently requires extending the rally to its next higher objective at 2902.00. Similarly, nothing yet requires a reaction down to develop into another downleg. Not, yet. But the two-week old distributive range is still being overlapped, and intraday probes of fresh highs are meeting violent reactions down. Violent, albeit limited by either price or duration, which is only a correction until reversed. Was recent distribution  defensive posturing ahead of the quarterly earnings onslaught that starts next week (Or even tomorrow’s Employment Situation report)? Was the China trade headlines normal favorable reaction leveraged by the recent distribution’s ballast dump? Then favorable headlines are still influential and could extend the rally in price, but the distribution’s catalyst should soon limit the rally’s duration.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2879.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2881.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2833.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s rally to test prior highs up to 2869.00 — didn’t extend Tuesday beyond Monday’s 2873.50 intraday high. The morning’s bias signal triggered a reaction down to 2862.25 that met and held its pullback objective, qualifying as backing-and-filling. The balance of the session rallied back up to 2873.50. A very last-minute reaction collapsed back under 2869.00 to 2867.00 through the futures close. The upper-end of the distributive range held, and pushed back twice, but never reversed the trend back down.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s last-minute collapse had triggered a sell signal targeting 2866.00, which was met at the Globex open. Sideways ranging held its retest, perhaps thanks to China trade headlines that triggered a couple of surges up to 2882.25. The two surges formed complexity that creates a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest, often the same day. A shallow consolidation back to 2878.00 recovered through Europe’s opens up to 2884.00, but only briefly as 2880.00 is being tested as support.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Fresh highs were possible regardless of their resolution, even if only temporary to stretch the rubber band so it can snap back down aggressively. Whether to 2779.00 or up to 2885.50, there was no requirement to be met before reversing down, but the China trade headlines have injected an optimistic bias. Zerohedge is criticizing the mechanical reaction for ignoring the remaining disagreement on implementation and enforcement, which may be true. But if these levels don’t reinstate the two-week old distributive pattern, then not reversing down would next target 2902.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2779.00 would be likely to at least trigger the 2875.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2885.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2882.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Gapping up Monday would likely be rewarded by some form of retesting two-week old highs, to at least 2855.00 if not also probing room for noise up to 2869.00. The least of it was tested overnight after gapping up Sunday night to and through the morning’s bias-up parameters. Continually overlapping the 2859.00 open through the first hour formed a “Dry Cleaners morning” that resolved up to test the rest during the afternoon bias environment. Surging after the position-squaring window up to 2873.50 reacted back down to 2866.50, holding 2869.00, and not putting into play 2902.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
While Bitcoin experiences a nostalgic overnight $850 surge, neither bias signal has yet been touched by a choppy overnight range. After bouncing back up to 2872.00 through the futures close, Globex gapped down to 2867.50. Its reaction up to 2872.00 was reversed to lower lows at 2865.00 by midnight. Ranging narrowly sideways through Europe’s opens attacked this morning’s 2863.75 bias-down signal to within 3 ticks. Now resolving up, or trying to, has retraced to within 3 ticks of the earlier 2872.00 Globex high.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Last night’s pullback resembles the pullback that didn’t happen at the two-week old high. That was the session-long Thursday rally, and limiting the next session to backing-and-filling could have resumed the rally last week. Instead, its weekend was entered and exited by a collapse to fresh lows that seemingly confirmed the distributive pattern. But price only ranged there, eventually recovering to now overlap the distribution range’s upper-end. In charting, pattern means pattern, so this area’s retest should resolve similarly if the distributive pattern remains intact. Stretching the rubber band a little further this morning would still be vulnerable to reversing down, until the timing window lapses. Maintaining fresh highs into the noon hour could become something more substantial to the upside.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2866.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2863.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2869.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2872.25 bias-up signal.