Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s session was preceded by an overnight drop, and the open was greeted in recovery mode. That was nothing new for the week, not until the recovery failed, miserably. Thursday night had initially plunged 40 points on China tariffs news from its 2662.25 intraday close. That was retraced only to 2648.00 pre-open, and then almost to 2657.00 through the open. The balance of the morning reversed back down to within 5 points of the 2620.00 overnight lows. The flat-to-lower noon hour resolved down sharply to 2584.50 — down 78 points from Thursday’s close. The final hour bounced to 2611.00. No “unfinished business above” was left outstanding, having rejected the Wednesday-Thursday test of 2644.00 and 2660.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s gap up immediately recovered Friday’s last-minute reaction down from 2611.00. The gap up extended higher to test 2625.00 by midnight. Narrow ranging into Europe’s opens blipped down to attack 2615.00, then blipped-up to attack and test 2628.00. But its reaction down is now attacking 2618.00.

If, then…
The relentless overnight rally is relative shallow, and still contained by the range of Friday afternoon’s collapse. It has gotten into position for more easily recovering a relevant level — like Friday afternoon’s 2634.00 bias environment high — which would be bullish if recovered through the open. Meanwhile, however, the likely alternative to extending higher is not only to retesting Friday’s low but trending through it.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2612.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2620.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2621.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday night had rallied through Europe’s opens to attack 2668.00. Reacting down to 2552.00 defined the balance of price action overnight, and through Thursday’s close. The sideways session’s only expressions of sentiment were separate rallies to 2672.00, and their two reactions down. The separate rallies each failed to extend, while their reactions down fulfilled targets. Bouncing off of the targets formed “V” bottoms that never paused to allow any accumulative behavior. Fluctuating around 2660.00 resistance was ongoing into the close, undermining whether a next higher objective was put into play.

Overnight action’s new info…
Markets are usually constrained ahead of an Employment Situation report. Last night’s Globex started that way. It had barely begun trading, and could barely be characterized as trending, when it got ambushed by a $100 million tariff on China. Plunging 40 points within 15 minutes fell to 2620.00. Reacting up to 2637.50 into and out of midnight formed an Ascending Triangle. Already breaking higher to 2644.00 ahead of Europe’s opens has extended to attack 2649.00. Its reaction has fallen back down to the triangle’s 2637.50 upper-end as support, probably sparked by headlines that China is within 1-2 hours of announcing its retaliation.

If, then…
Will Thursday night’s plunge set a pessimistic tone for the day, or will its excessive pessimism prove bullish from a contrarian perspective? Tuesday night’s 57-point slide scared a lot of market participants, yet it was reversed well above its origin intraday Wednesday. Will that pattern repeat today? The influence of Friday Factors on sizable overnight moves tends to exacerbate them as weekend illiquidity fast approaches. The question is whether that influence will be applied to the overnight drop, or to a post-open recovery attempt. Meanwhile, Wednesday closed barely under 2644.00 and Thursday closed barely above 2660.00. Closing back under both on Thursday would have signaled the trend reversing down. That applies equally on Friday. The overnight plunge to 2620.00 seems to make that easier, but so did Tuesday night’s 57-point slide. Anyway, closing under 2644.00 or above 2660.00 would likely be by a wide margin.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary levels are considered ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
An overnight Symmetrical Triangle’s false break was already reversing back up pre-open from 2559.50. Wednesday’s open extended the reversal more substantially, all but ensuring the overnight plunge would not resume. It did not. Sellers were never actually marginalized intraday, but they would be influential again only during the noon hour’s exit into the bias environment, dropping from 2620.00 to 2601.50. That ended abruptly as the rally extended sharply higher to almost 2650.00 into the final minutes. The actual cash session close held 2644.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Slowing the pace of yesterday’s rally hasn’t stopped it. A reaction down from 2660.00 to 2653.00 was recovered to 2667.00, which also reacted down to 2653.00. Its recovery to 2660.00 is forming a potential Head & Shoulders pattern, and also reinforcing the relevance of 2660.00.

If, then…
Extending any higher would seriously undermine the near-term downside momentum, especially if maintained through today’s close. Significant retracement limits are being tested, both at yesterday’s close back under 2644.00 and at the overnight probe above 2660.00. Closing above both today would enable a higher objective at 2722.00. Meanwhile, having tested 2660.00, closing back under 2644.00 could act as an accelerant to reverse momentum down aggressively into the weekend — and out of it… Meanwhile, the potential Head & Shoulders pattern forming overnight has yet to break lower, and may not. Regardless, its intraday influence will be defined during the opening 15 minutes of volatility.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2660.00 would be likely to exceed the 2656.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2650.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2647.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up extended to 2597.50 before reacting down almost 25 points to 2573.25, and filling the gap back to Monday’s close. The 2687.75 bias-up signal had already failed to trigger, putting into play an offsetting test of its 2566.50 bias-down signal. That didn’t prevent the balance of the morning from rallying to fresh session highs. Its no-bias trending could have been invalidated by exiting the bias environment above its 2601.50 bias-up target. The target held as resistance despite being probed up to 2605.50, so it wasn’t for lack of trying that 2566.50 became “unfinished business below.” That still didn’t prevent extending higher, albeit after another 25-point dip to 2580.00. Late highs attacked 2619.00 and took RSIs simultaneously overbought before reacting down to 2603.25.

Overnight action’s new info…
Another trade war attack by China has retraced yesterday’s rally. Swallowed it whole. Bouncing out of Tuesday’s late pullback had never recovered to retest intraday highs. Price soon began drifting back down and retested the pullback’s 2603.25 low by 3 ticks. Flat-to-lower ranging accelerated its pace into and out of Europe’s opens. Headlines soon triggered a plunge through yesterday’s low to 2569.25. A 2-hour consolidation back up to 2580.00 broke lower to 2559.50. That break has been retraced back up to the consolidation’s “lower prior highs” at 2574.00.

If, then…
Avoiding a repeat of Monday’s plunge on Tuesday probably wasn’t bullish. But it left only a very narrow window for tracking the 1987-style crash template — by trending down sharply Wednesday either without delay or by the morning bias environment exit. Having trended down sharply already overnight, a flat or flat-to-higher morning is possible. But the crash template is fueled by intraday selling, and would require resuming the decline aggressively this afternoon. Regardless of the character or path there, 2509.00-2511.00 remains the next lower objective.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2580.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2585.75 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s narrow sideways range could have resolved either way, despite already probing 14 points under Friday’s 2642.00 close. Monday’s plunge tracked the only bearish template in operation at the open. While it fulfilled this leg’s likely objectives of retesting the recent 2796.00-2698.00 and 2585.00 lows, they weren’t required the same day. The late bounce from 2552.00 touched 2585.00 as resistance before backing off 5 and 10 points into the cash session and futures closes. Maintaining its break confirms the next lower objective in-play is 2509.00-2511.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
It’s almost the opposite of yesterday. Monday’s late reaction down from 2585.00 was eventually retraced, and then probed up to 2589.00. But only momentarily, as the balance of the night has been sideways in a 10-point range around 2585.00. Flat-to-higher, slightly, as 2590.00 was just touched, but its reaction is heading back down to 2585.00. The description nearly matches yesterday’s, albeit probing slightly higher instead of slightly lower.

If, then…
The objectives of Monday’s template didn’t have a timing element, and neither does the next lower objective. But duplicating Monday’s plunge on Tuesday would introduce a likelihood of extending down aggressively, perhaps even tracking the 1987-style crash template. The overnight range’s restrained optimism would be bullish intraday if the opening 15 minutes of volatility becomes less restrained and more optimistic. That’s credible, but not the likeliest resolution. Meanwhile, immediate post-open weakness could quickly retrace all of the post-close gains, and still be targeting a probe under yesterday’s lows.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2593.25 would be likely to trigger the 2587.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2576.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.