Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s one or two rubber band stretches didn’t resolve Wednesday afternoon or through Thursday’s open. Better late than never? Overnight ranging had been expanding its upper-end to test 2620.00, where Thursday’s open was greeted. The open’s resolution was down 10 points, which was recovered only gradually, and didn’t even challenge the 2625.25 bias-up signal. The gradual recovery extended anyway, with its “no-bias trending” probing the 2634.50 bias-up target by 7 points. Correcting into the noon hour stopped short of  retracing the morning’s 2625.25 bias-up signal before rallying again to 2659.50. The final hour’s proxy window started reversing down, extending through the close’s dip back into the noon hour’s consolidation at 2634.50. The afternoon’s rally was also no-bias trending, but only the morning’s 2625.25 bias-up signal is “unfinished business below” that still requires being retraced.

Overnight action’s new info…
Relatively narrow, choppy ranging persisted through midnight, repeatedly holding 2641.00, several ticks under Friday’s cash session close. At least bottoms had been rising, but then a drop into Europe’s opens attacked the earlier overnight lows down to 2632.00. Its gradual recovery peaked at the range’s midpoint before resolving down more steeply to fresh overnight lows attacking 2628.00.

If, then…
Friday’s final hour reversal hasn’t been retraced, let alone reversed, but neither has it extended under a prior low. Specifically, the 2627.00-2629.00 prior lows that contained the morning bias environment exit, the noon hour, and the noon hour exit. Traction gained by the afternoon rally is meanwhile intact, and not yet breaking lower through the open would make the morning likelier to bounce. Extending Friday’s bounce is possible, but not at all assured. Similarly, breaking under the overnight range after already coming within 60-90 minutes of the open could be only a rubber band stretch that snaps back up — especially if that initial stretch were to touch the 2625.25 attraction below. Otherwise, maintaining a break lower would target a retest of the prior Friday’s 2585.00 low.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2631.25 would be likely to trigger the 2635.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2642.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s intraday action didn’t deviate far from the choppy overnight action preceding it. Not far above it, nor below it. The ranging was wide wide enough to represent divergent opinions, by attempts to trend in either direction. But the trending attempts were contained within the range. A late break lower from the afternoon’s narrow range was recovered like the morning’s false break lower. Both recoveries also stopped short of reversing into breaks higher.

Overnight action’s new info…
Not for lack of trying — albeit the attempts haven’t been very powerful — but yesterday’s range remains intact. Flat-to-lower ranging initially drifted down to test and retest 2601.50 through midnight. That’s still several points above yesterday’s lows. Then rallying into and out of Europe’s opens has extended to fresh overnight highs at 2620.00. And that’s still under yesterday’s highs.

If, then…
Potentially, yesterday’s two failed dips are pessimism that will prove bullish from a contrarian perspective. The other basic ingredients are there: weekend illiquidity fast-approaching, recent drop already discounted a lot of negatives, relevant support holding tests. But there’s not an indefinite time allowed before exploiting the setup. Rallying would have been acceptable already Wednesday afternoon. Not yet rallying early Thursday could be because the decline has already resumed into the long weekend. Or, worse, not trending early at all is still vulnerable to remaining range bound. Meanwhile, despite having all of the potentially bullish ingredients, there is a degree of difficulty to rallying — so much congestion from yesterday lies just above the close, making bias-up more difficult than usual to trigger.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2620.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2625.25 bias-up at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2611.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2597.00 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Nothing about Tuesday’s open was bullish, but, wow. Monday’s rally had closed above Friday afternoon’s prior high which put into play a much higher recovery target. Extending higher into Monday’s close retraced Friday morning’s high, too, but was still overlapping it. Extending even higher overnight was already reacting down into Tuesday’s open. And the opening 15 minutes of volatility was exited back at Friday morning’s high. Tests of both bias-up parameters were rejected. All of which is bearish. And only mildly productive, hardly attacking support at Friday afternoon’s high before trying to recover. That premature optimism can be more bearish than the bearish setups, when the bearish setups haven’t yet been fulfilled. It was followed by an extended optimism which avoided triggering bias-down, but fell anyway — and fell sharply enough to invalidate a required retracement. I was suspicious of that late break’s timing, but it was very productive, anyway.

Overnight action’s new info…
I had noted a 2600.00-2614.00 range before the position-squaring window. Closing within it Tuesday would not be predictive either way. The afternoon’s plunge tested it twice down to 2599.00 and 2596.00, then bounced to 2614.00 at the cash session close. Globex initially fluctuated around the close up to 2624.00. Its eventual reaction down into and out of Europe’s opens touched 2600.00. Bouncing is already retesting the range’s upper-end.

If, then…
Exiting the open beyond either end of 2600.00-2614.00 would be likely to trend in that direction. While there’s no assurance that the upcoming holiday weekend’s seasonal bullishness will be influential, its influence doesn’t begin until this afternoon. Which leaves this morning as optimal for extending the decline, if the decline intends to extend. If the decline does extend to close under Friday’s lows, I would be skeptical that a bullish influence was intended.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2625.25 would be likely to trigger the 2621.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2630.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2628.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2641.50. Exiting the open under 2614.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s rally had all but peaked nearly 4 hours before the open. Touching, testing and probing 2634.00 had reacted down to 2626.00-2627.00 each time. One final time through Monday’s open also reacted down, but much more substantially to 2602.00. That was the morning’s bias environment. Recovering into and out of the afternoon bias environment extended sharply higher to 2662.50, probing above Friday afternoon’s ~2650.00 high. Friday morning’s 2658.50 high was still being tested at the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday afternoon’s rally soon resumed after the Globex open. And it has only extended higher, including an Ascending Triangle at 2672.50 that resolved up to 2678.50 through Europe’s opens. Now a fresh high attacking 2680.00 has reacted down to test and retest 2672.50 as support.

If, then…
The reward to recovering yesterday morning’s high was a retest of Friday afternoon’s ~2650.00 high. And the reward to recovering that is a retest of two prior highs up to 2691.50. That was more than 40 points higher when 2650.00 was being tested, and now it’s only 12 points higher. The recovery is already 94 points above Friday’s late low, which is a little faster-paced for the rally than for the decline. The differential isn’t wide enough to label the rally as a “bear market bounce,” but surging beyond the open would could make the afternoon vulnerable to reversal. However, a post-open dip would be difficult to resume the rally if not absorbed quickly.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2675.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2671.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s 2626.00 lows had been probed momentarily by 9 points. A pre-open bounce had tested 2658.00. The open’s potential Isolation setup failed Rather than establish a range, the wide swings released their energy at Friday’s 2650.00 open through its 2588.00 cash session close. Futures bounced 9-11 points into the weekend. Nearly two weeks of decline had finally returned to the original downleg’s 2694.75 intraday low, which is still the Pivotal Low — i.e. the low prior to the actual low.

Overnight action’s new info…
The word over the weekend was that progress is being made in negotiations on trade with China. Nothing definitive, but it was enough for one of the worst intraday drops to re-open only slightly down at 2595.00. At first, the overnight crowd was tentative. Dipping a couple of points was recovered to a fresh post-open high. It reacted down to a fresh post-open low at 2591.00, just 5 points from from Friday’s low, and certain oblivion below it. But the next hour eked its way back up to post-open highs. And continued. Extending higher overnight to 2636.00 has been ranging back down to Friday morning’s — and Thursday night’s — 2626.00-2627.00 lows as support.

If, then…
This is not a durable recovery. It might be the beginning of a bottoming pattern, which I doubt, but that would require holding a test of the gap back down to Friday’s close. And double-digit overnight rally must produce another double-digit leg to even attack Friday’s last relative highs. Still, the overnight reversal could extend intraday if its recovery above 2626.00-2627.00 is maintained. Similar to an Isolation setup, the interim price action can fuel a short-squeeze. Alternatively, relentless overnight trending often reverses its trend at the open. Regardless, the opening 15 minutes of volatility tends to establish either of these two setups, so we should know today’s direction early.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2627.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2624.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.