Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s drop had already probed fresh lows for the week, which hadn’t happened the two prior sessions. Thursday’s open gapped down 27-30 points to probe under Monday’s 2698.00-2699.00 lows. A post-open bounce finally ended upon touching Monday’s low. and the balance of the morning trended down to 2664.00. Another bounce to 2690.00 also resolved down to 2643.00-2644.00. That met the next lower objective under 2680.00 at 2652.00. Closing under it put into play its next lower objective at 2627.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Trying both to resume the drop, and to reverse it, and failing at both. Thursday’s drop extended without delay to fulfill its next objective down to 2626.00. Consolidating eventually broke lower and quickly touched 2617.00, but it was recovered almost as quickly as it had formed. This time, consolidating again around 2626.00 reversed up sharply into Europe’s opens and touched Thursday’s late 2643.00-2644.00 lows. It also reversed back to 2626.00. Now another bounce is testing 2639.00.

If, then…
Several important points about price action since yesterday’s close. First, it has met the next lower objective. Second, it is in proximity to yesterday’s range. Third, it has developed exclusively under yesterday’s lows. The first two points allow an Isolation setup to form, by opening back above yesterday’s lows and avoiding negative territory through the open. The third point must be invalidated first, by probing back into yesterday’s range well before the open. An alternative recovery path would continue being governed by pessimism and retest the overnight low, but maintain or re-establish the range when the bias environment had lapsed. Friday Factors could squeeze shorts into the weekend. Nevertheless, dangers loom. Isolation setups can be as bearish as they would have been bullish, if they fail to hold within the prior day’s range. And Friday Factors can cut either way, so buyers can become increasingly inhibited the longer a recovery is delayed. Regardless, this being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. So, almost literally, make or break. Closing under 2652.00 again Friday would confirm the next lower objective in-play, a retest of the crash’s lows at 2509-2511.00. Support along the way would be influential, but likely only temporary.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2639.75 would be likely to trigger the 2640.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2652.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s no-no-bias environment avoided triggering its 2719.00 bias-down signal, and surged through its 2725.25 bias-up signal to 2734.00. The no-bias trending was retraced before the FOMC news, which triggered a 12-point knee-jerk reaction up to 2744.00. Which triggered a 20-point collapse. Both within 5 minutes. Wide swings persisted as fresh lows were probed down to within ticks of the morning’s 2712.25 bias-down target. A 21-point bounce was mostly retraced into the close down to 2714.25. Oversold RSIs at the low require a retest. Tuesday morning’s “unfinished business below” at 2710.25 is outstanding, too.

Overnight action’s new info…
So much for Wednesday’s volatility. Right? Firming steadily into the Globex session recovered to test the lower-end of 2726.00-2727.00. Its reaction down attacked 2718.00 before trying to recover, but peaked at 61.8%. Reacting down again greeted Europe’s opens back at yesterday’s late low. And then lower. And then a lot lower. Collapsing sharply lower finally bounced back up to 2707.50, what is this morning’s bias-down target. A retest of the low down to 2696.00 reacted up to 2701.50, and ranged sideways at the lows.

If, then…
Attractions at yesterday’s 2712.75 low and Tuesday morning’s 2710.25 bias-down signal are neutralized. Isolating their tests to the overnight could have launched a multi-session recovery of the pullback from last week’s highs. That’s still possible, since tests of 2701.50 have been holding. Repeatedly. Recovering again in this setup all but requires opening back above yesterday’s lows, if not also in positive territory and then holding above yesterday’s lows. Trying, and failing, could prove even more bearish than not trying at all. And not holding the retest of Monday’s lows would threaten to expose an air pocket not much further below.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2711.50 would at least be likelier to trigger the 2713.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2706.00 would be likely also not to recover the 2707.50 bias-down target which would then renew the bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s 2720.25 open was flat with Monday’s futures close. Both were above Monday’s cash 2716.25 session close, which had been touched twice overnight. Interim bounces had tested the 2726-2727 target created by Monday’s close above 2711.50. The open pierced fresh highs up to 2729.00, and reversed down again, early enough not to trigger the bias-up signal. The morning’s bias environment exit only got to within 3 points of fulfilling an offsetting test of its 2710.25 bias-down signal. The afternoon bias environment got a few ticks closer. Both dips reacted up, settling at 2723.50. The cash session closed 3 points lower, essentially unchanged from the opening print.

Overnight action’s new info…
Price action since yesterday has been volatile, not narrow, but still undecided. Dipping into Tuesday’s close had triggered a pattern with potential down to 2716.25. It was barely attacked to within 2 points. Firming into the close extended into the Globex open up to 2725.50. Its reaction down to 2721.00 was recovered entirely, and higher to attack 2728.00. A 10-point drop has bounced 6 points off of 2718.00 to now test 2724.00, essentially unchanged from yesterday’s cash session close.

If, then…
While yesterday afternoon’s low provided a sizable bounce, it was contained within the session’s previous range. This reinforces the range’s boundaries for containing noise, by making it more difficult to attract sponsorship for trending out of the range. Greeting the open within the range can still trend quickly to try gaining some traction, which is already difficult ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC events. The range is wide, so an early trending attempt that doesn’t trigger a bias signal still has plenty of room for reversal before paralyzing anxiousness sets in. But volatility after the policy statement and during Fed Chair Powell’s first quarterly Q&A should help to compensate for the interim constraint.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2627.00 would be likely to trigger the 2725.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2724.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2720.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2719.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2716.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s relentless decline had tested the next lower objective under 2745.00 at 2735.00 by 2 points. Retesting it after the opening 15 minutes of volatility prevented it from offering support. The next lower objective at 2726.00-2727.00 was also tested too late, as the morning bias environment was lapsing. And the next lower objectives at 2711.50 and 2706.00 were probed in time to renew the afternoon bias-down signal. Testing the last objective at 2701.50 down to 2697.00-2700.00 was rejected on a timely basis this time, recovering into the final hour. Closing back above 2706.00 and 2711.50 put into play 2726.00-2727.00 which was attacked through the close up to 2723.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wide-ranging as it has been, the market has only hovered above yesterday’s late highs. The 2716.25 cash session close was retraced before the late rally resumed. Eventually extending up to 2728.50 ahead of Europe’s opens, also fulfilled the 2726.00-2727.00 objective. Its reaction fell back to 2716.25. That might be an obligatory low, which would make its current reaction an obligatory bounce — a big one, now entirely retraced up to 2728.50.

If, then…
Yesterday’s lows formed a credible bottom, but it can’t afford much hesitation before being productive. The pattern’s minimum objective is already fulfilled, and that is under any prior high whose recovery would signal the trend reversing up. Probing higher overnight does conserve buying pressure, but only temporarily. And still being near recent lows makes it more difficult to absorb another downdraft, so extending the rally without delay would be optimal. Otherwise, the nearest sell signal could be back under 2711.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2725.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2726.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2723.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
No WedEX had triggered ahead of Friday’s expiration so no bias was detected. But there was plenty of ranging. The open was greeted at 2756.00, having bounced overnight from retesting the 2745.00 area to attack 2761.00. Extending higher throughout the morning bias environment reached 2766.00, the session high. Trending back down throughout the afternoon bias environment tested 2754.00, the session low. The balance of the session retraced the high-to-low by 61.8% up to 2762.00. Recovering 2758.00 through the close could have been bullish, but the final 2 minutes plunged 9 points to 2753.00. Its reaction only touched 2758.00, as if to rub it in.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night has been under pressure since the open. Dipping immediately to 2751.00 was retraced to 2756.00, which is still resistance from Friday’s open. The drop soon extended, dipping quickly to 2746.00. Hovering optimistically short of the already tested and retested 2745.00 area, for awhile, eventually extended. Seven hours of narrow ranging finally broke lower. A last-gasp up to what is this morning’s 2750.00 bias-down signal was reversed down sharply to 2733.00 in 30 minutes. Its 61.8% retracement up to 2743.50 is now hovering above what is this morning’s 2740.00 bias-down target.

If, then…
The 2-1/2 days since Wednesday afternoon had been contained within a range. Probes of fresh lows were retraced. That is accumulative behavior, but not quite an accumulative pattern without a trigger. An intraday drop could have tested “lower prior highs” in the 2735.00 area and still been capable of recovering, perhaps even to trigger a reversal. Recovering an overnight drop under the range is substantially more difficult. There’s more time to get it done, but that also means a pessimistic tone will have been established early. That said, trending relentlessly overnight — especially into Monday’s open — can be reversed credibly, if immediately. And that’s still possible, not because there’s still time to get it done, but because that’s the potential of testing “lower prior highs.” Also, lacking WedEX bias could help attract price back into riday’s range. Otherwise, exiting the open without either trending up, or expending the last bit of selling pressure, would be vulnerable to retesting overnight lows, at least.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2745.00 would be likely to trigger the 2750.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2735.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2740.00 bias-down target at 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal.