Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s break under 2758.00 barely tried to recover that afternoon. Thursday morning was resisted by it, long enough for a late-morning surge to be doomed to failure. Perhaps the afternoon’s no-bias environment intended to try again, or to resolve in a rally. We won’t know, because a headline surprise triggered a drop under the 2755.00 bias-down signal that attacked the 2745.00 overnight low. It was retraced entirely into the close. Applying that 9-10 points of buying pressure at the bias environment exit could have recovered 2758.00, and helped to end the pullback. “Unfinished business above” at the morning’s 2767.25 overbought RSIs could have attracted price even higher. Ending back above Wednesday’s 2750.00 lows after probing lower may be the beginning stages of  a new accumulative pattern, or else chipping away at support — the pattern isn’t yet well enough developed either way. Whichever, it is much closer to a resolution.

Overnight action’s new info…
The momentum of yesterday’s late recovery extended slightly higher into the Globex open. Like the prior Globex session’s initial firming, it touched 2759.50 — 1 tick short of what is happens to be morning’s bias-up signal — before its first reaction down. Like yesterday’s session prior to its headline surprise, Wednesday’s 2750.00 lows held as support, touching what happens to be this morning’s 2750.25 bias-down signal. The balance of the night has ranged choppily back up to 2758.00.

If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s 2745.75 low touched last Thursday’s “lower prior highs,” albeit several ticks short of actually filling its gap which is preferable. Recovering back above prior lows is the basis for an accumulative pattern. A second such test is possible, but not a third test before actually recovering some resistance to signal momentum reversing up. Meanwhile, a second test of support could probe deeper than the first before recovering, or simply not recover and become a new downleg. That dip’s next lower support is in the 2736.00 area. And its test becomes likelier — regardless of its resolution — if this morning isn’t already rallying. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour, so early trending should be very productive.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2762.00 would be likely to trigger the 2759.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2748.00 would be likely to trigger the 2750.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Bouncing overnight had been consolidating for hours around the morning’s 2781.50 bias-up signal. The open didn’t trigger it, requiring the offsetting test of its 2766.00 bias-down signal. Its break into the noon hour soon tested 2750.00, which held another two tests to define the afternoon’s low. An interim bounce to 2767.00 failed to exploit the opportunity to recover 2758.00, let alone 2770.00, which could have signaled this week’s pullback has ended.

Overnight action’s new info…
Two uplegs were interrupted by a drop to fresh lows. The second upleg is hovering around the first upleg’s highs, on the verge of losing patience with not yet breaking higher. Globex began by firming up to what is this morning’s 2759.50 bias-up signal. Almost immediately upon touching its resistance, price collapsed 14 points to probe 3 points under yesterday’s low to 2745.00. That’s the gap from last Thursday’s close, and its support soon reacted up 17 points to test 2762.00. All of that had developed before midnight. Since then, ranging sideways has been supported by yesterday’s 2754.00 close, which is now being retested.

If, then…
Wednesday’s lows probed into the gap between last Thursday’s 2745.00 close and Friday’s 2757.00-2759.00 gap up. Gaps are dense areas of support (or resistance) until chipped away, so it’s interesting that the reactions from the gap were relatively shallow. And it will be surprising if Thursday’s open doesn’t resolve the gap’s test immediately one way or the other. Breaking higher must do more than just recover 2758.00 to even begin reversing yesterday’s close under it — triggering bias-up, if not also threatening the bias-up target, would be more in-line with a morning intending to rally. Otherwise, the next objective below is essentially “lower prior highs” in the 2735.00 area.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2760.00 would be likely to trigger the 2759.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2753.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s session was similar to Monday, until it wasn’t. Tuesday’s open had been preceded by a 12-point spike upon the CPI report, attacking Sunday night’s 2505.00 high. A post-open rally probed Sunday and Monday’s highs up to 2807.00. Like Monday, bias-up triggered but it wasn’t renewed above its 2802.00 bias-up target. And like Monday, the balance of the morning trended down under its bias-up signal, during a bias-up environment. Unlike Monday, the afternoon trended down, too, ultimately testing 2770.00 down to 2762.50. A late 11-point bounce was probing above 2770.00 into the close. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2794.75 bias-up signal.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late bounce had seemed tenuous before it even began. It was already retracing to 2770.00 into the close. the Globex open immediately retraced back down to Tuesday’s 2762.50 low. Bouncing back up to 2770.00 resolved back down to 2762.50 again. The next bounce to 2770.00 was more reserved, which has been rewarded by rallying up to 2782.00-2783.00. Consolidating there for 3 hours around what is this morning’s 2782.50 bias-up signal has yet to resolve either way.

If, then…
Last night’s bounce isn’t yet attacking Tuesday afternoon’s 2788.50 bias environment high to try forming a “session-long rally setup,” but pre-open econ reports could get it there. That’s not necessary to simply rally. The minimum upside reward is to retest Tuesday morning’s 2794.75 bias-up signal, if not also its Double Top with Monday’s high, and potentially resuming the prevailing trend that is targeting at least 2818.00… Meanwhile, a deeper dip to 2758.00 is still possible, and possible to recover from intraday. Gapping up as is currently indicated would allow room to expend selling pressure before it can gain traction. But that’s probably the only backing-and-filling this pullback can tolerate without reflecting a more bearish expiration sentiment.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2785.50 would be likely to trigger the 2781.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2777.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Closing Friday above 2758.00 and 2770.00 had put into play the next higher targets at 2813.00 and 2830.00-2833.00. A last opportunity to reject that premise was to immediately reject the higher close. Sunday night probed Friday’s late 2792.00 high up to 2805.50 which Monday’s open attacked up to 2802.25. That fulfilled the morning’s bias-up target, and the balance of the session ranged flat-to-lower, twice testing 2784.00 as support. The morning’s 2793.50 bias-up signal defined the afternoon’s upper-end. A late 13-point surge to 2797.00 exited the position-squaring window falling back into the range at 2787.50, a 61.8% retracement of the afternoon’s range — natural support.

Overnight action’s new info…
Narrow ranging around 2787.50 ended before midnight and has since rallied steadily. Two hours of consolidating at the overnight highs has formed an Ascending Triangle. Hovering pessimistically short of yesterday’s late 2797.00 high is threatening to open back above Friday’s highs.

If, then…
Monday’s NQ closed higher, ES closed flat, and YM closed lower, leveraging Friday’s similar relationship to confirm a bullish context. Yesterday morning’s drop developed during a bias-up environment, its sellers being weak-handed because the context precluded them from gaining traction for their effort. Quickly recovering or opening back above Friday’s 2792.00 high and yesterday afternoon’s 2793.50 highs should help to crystallize this morning’s focus on extending the rally. Any early indication of NOT recovering through the open would be more vulnerable to extending yesterday’s pullback with room down to 2770.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2797.25 would be likely to trigger the 2794.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2791.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Fluctuating choppily 6-points either way around unchanged had attacked 2750.00 above, and tested 2739.00 below. Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report was ultimately greeted by a 10-point dip to 2735.50. But it was only last-minute pessimism, which disappeared into a 28-point surge to 2864.00. That fulfilled the next higher objective at 2858.00, and 2870.00 was fulfilled when the rally resumed post-open and added 11 points through the morning. Another 11 points higher through the afternoon was resisted by 2786.00, before surging to 2892.00 into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s last-minute surge had been retraced 3-4 points into the weekend. Sunday night’s open abruptly reversed that by surging 10 points to 2798.50. The surge’s end became a relatively narrow flat-to-higher range supported by this morning’s 2793.50 bias-up signal. The range had broken higher to greet Europe’s opens at 2805.00, which abruptly collapsed 9 points back into a narrow range around 2798.50… Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trying to fulfill the bullish setup we discussed at Friday’s close. Consequently, it is defining a nearby sell signal that must be avoided in the near-term to avoid being cut in half.

If, then…
Last week’s bearish template rested Friday, which Friday’s surge exploited well. Overnight action resembles the behavior, but that doesn’t yet mean its next stage has arrived. Similarly, hovering above Friday’s highs doesn’t yet mean a decline won’t greet the open. But avoiding that late selling pressure — or limiting it — would help to confirm the next higher objectives are in-play at 2818.00 and 2830.00-2833.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2787.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2793.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2797.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.