Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s pattern was a twisted version of the template that was developing well before its open. Tuesday’s rally had essentially targeted 2673.75, which was fulfilled overnight, essentially targeting 2684.00 and a failure from there. Pre-open CPI triggered a 49-point plunge to 2627.00 that could have been an accelerated version of the template. It wasn’t. All of the plunge was retraced during Wednesday’s first hour, and later exceeding 2684.00 targeted 2698.00-2700.00 that was probed up to 2701.75 into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
The afternoon’s extended rally had developed after already fulfilling its renewed bias-up target. Not exploiting the opportunity for a refueling pullback had created the vulnerability, opportunity and likelihood for overnight weakness. No such thing. Wednesdsay’s late range persisted briefly down to 2693.50 before resuming the rally, which has extended up to 2719.50. An 11-point pullback  bounced bacl into resistance at this morning’s 2713.50 bias-up target, which has pushed back and extended down to 2705.00.

If, then…
January’s highs require an eventual retest, making the decline a temporary correction, or at least the first downleg of a more substantial decline. Meanwhile, that decline’s current retracement is a temporary correction of that first downleg, still needing to retest last Friday’s low regardless of the substantial interim bounce. Retesting the low sooner rather than later can still hold and launch a more significant recovery. But extending this week’s rally starts making the high’s retest likelier first. Expect the market to behave accordingly, with more dissenting opinion like yesterday’s pre-open CPI-reaction plunge — with or without a quick and complete recovery, the difference being predictive. Meanwhile, a gap down isn’t indicated, needed as a proxy for inverting the bullish WedEX to bearish. So, unless today’s pre-open reports were to trigger a repeat of yesterday’s CPI plunge, the next higher objective may be 2753.00-2757.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2715.25 would be likely to exceed the 2713.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2709.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2703.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2698.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday night’s pullback had held repeated tests of Tuesday morning’s 2637.50 bias-down target. The tests all held, as did its retest at Tuesday’s open. The morning’s 2645.50 bias-down signal held repeated tests as resistance, too — including at 10:15 and 10:30 to trigger noN-bias and warn of a choppy environment. It persisted through the noon hour’s exit which surged 9-11 points to 2666.50. Another choppy environment persisted through the close, barely measuring 10 points at its widest. The likelihood for rewarding the morning’s accumulation with a probe above Monday’s high to 2673.75 was never fulfilled.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday afternoon’s choppy range persisted through midnight, at about half the width. Already firming back up to Tuesday’s highs suddenly surged into Europe’s opens, which was greeted at 2677.50. Its reaction down to 2670.00 has since developed a range narrowing around 2673.75.

If, then…
Having tested 2673.75 overnight, only sponsorship’s momentum and restrained optimism inhibit reversing down. Momentum is defined by the rally’s higher highs and higher lows, which remain intact. Restrained optimism is limiting the follow-through of surges. A post-open surge would maintain the series of higher highs and higher lows if it can limit both its follow-through and its reaction down. But not even surging post-open would be vulnerable to losing intraday momentum that attracts pessimistic selling. This ongoing rally from Friday afternoon’s lows still qualifies as being only a temporary correction, so it can’t afford deep pullbacks, or much delay between surges. Greeting Wednesday with multi-session trending makes today’s close likely to trigger a WedEX signal.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2670.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2666.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2676.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2673.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew its bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday afternoon’s rally off of its 2630.00 low resumed Sunday night, albeit shallower. But it unfolded in two segments that hesitated at 2637.50 and 2655.00, which are 38.2% and 61.8% extensions of the relevant segments of Friday afternoon’s rally — so, presumably the same sponsorship. A post-open 30-point pullback stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back to Friday’s 2618.25 close. Those optimists were sorely missed just when they were needed most, to maintain the afternoon probe of fresh highs up to 2671.50. The closing dip to 2645.75 probed back under the morning’s 2654.25 high, missing a final opportunity for the intraday rally to gain traction for its efforts. Which continues to suggest the bounce is only a temporary correction.

Overnight action’s new info…
Where Sunday night’s open immediately retraced Friday’s late reaction down from fresh session highs, yesterday’s late reaction down has extended lower overnight. Not for lack of trying — a bounce up to 2659.25 soon reversed back down, extending to 2636.25 out of Europe’s opens and consolidating up to 2644.00 for several hours. That ranging just broke higher, now touching 2648.00.

If, then…
Yesterday’s expenditure of buying pressure failed to close above relevant resistance, which continues to suggest the bounce is only a temporary correction. A proverbial “dead cat bounce.” The overnight dip isn’t yet deep enough to prove it isn’t just correcting yesterday’s rally. Anyway, a lower open would still require being maintained through the open to influence intraday action. Meanwhile, absorbing a weaker open could be rewarded by retesting yesterday’s highs up to 2673.75.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2650.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2645.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2640.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday afternoon’s rally averted disaster. Overnight action had been hopeful, as was the opening 15 minutes of flat-to-higher ranging up to 2618.50. Then a reversal down developed, at first gradual, at times steep, and eventually deep. And relentless, trending down into the afternoon’s bias environment low, which attacked Monday night’s 2529.00 low to within 5 ticks. Sitting on the precipice ahead of the week’s least liquid window, price began reversing up. Initially triggered by the fresh low having been only a blip-down, the bias environment became a massive upleg. A less massive correction resolved into another still massive upleg probing the morning’s high by more than 19 points to attack 2638.00. Its reaction down still had time to close back at the morning’s 2618.50 high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Gradually firming back to Friday’s late high pierced it  up to 2640.00. Ranging narrowly around Friday’s high eventually tried breaking lower at Europe’s opens. Its blip-down was retraced into the narrow range, which soon surged 12 points and then another 8 to touch 2655.00. The second surge and some of the first are now being retraced down to 2643.75.

If, then…
Throughout last week I chronicled the ongoing markers of a coming capitulation. Those were the individual sets of two distributive actions, which were characterized as relatively deeper downlegs and more greatly rejected recoveries. Friday morning’s 90-point drop to new intraday lows qualifies as capitulation, regardless of recovering it entirely through the afternoon. This is also regardless of that being the week’s least liquid window, which is still being exploited Sunday night — all eerily similar the two-week old strong Friday afternoon that was followed by new highs Sunday night. The current Friday afternoon and Sunday night rallies are increasingly productive, but their second legs are narrowing. Little of which mattered so much until now, as the overnight high challenges the decline’s last relative highs from Thursday afternoon. The outcome to negotiating their resistance could dictate the next direction into tomorrow morning.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2645.50 would be likely to exceed the 2642.50 bias-up signal through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2636.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2625.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Flat-to-higher ranging off of Wednesday night’s 2645.50 low had reached 2686.00, and started retracing 6-9 points 15 minutes before the Thursday’s open. That more than doubled during the next 15 minutes. A choppy open finally broke lower to fulfill the 2651.00 bias-down target, and the noon hour extended down to 2613.00. the afternoon bias environment’s bounce tested 2645.50 before returning to the noon hour’s low, and the position-squaring window broke sharply lower to 2577.00. The Dow printed a closing loss of at least 1,000 points.

Overnight action’s new info…
Several swings of higher highs and higher lows developed into Europe’s opens. Each leg measured a measly 25 points, give or take, reaching 2617.00 to net a 44-point gain from yesterday’s last-minute low. Europe’s exchanges fell as they played catch-up (or catch-down, as the case may be) with yesterday afternoon’s portion of the plunge. Hovering at the high tried ignoring that for several hours, but recently broke lower about 25 points to 2593.00. Its reaction up to 2607.50 peaked upon testing uptrending support that had defined the series of higher lows. That has now resolved down to fresh overnight lows, within 4 points of yesterday’s last-minute low.

If, then…
A couple thousand points here and a couple thousand points there, eventually we’re talking about a significant move… When I say the market is vulnerable to collapsing into the weekend, I mean that in relative terms. Relative to the two-week old drop. I’ve been describing this week’s multiple two-day setups of expanded selling pressures — beginning last Friday, and becoming more frequent yesterday. Gapping up sufficiently can invalidate the setup’s near-term influence. Either way, Friday Factors are likely to exacerbate a move as the weekend’s illiquidity gets exponentially closer each minute. The potential for collapse is also suggested by the comparison among the three major indexes/averages, which I describe in today’s recording. Gapping up would still need to maintain and extend to prevent another downdraft before the close.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2615.25 would be likely to trigger the 2609.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2598.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.