Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Market Tour <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s 40-point rally from 2687 both triggered and fulfilled its 2707 and 2722 bias-up parameters up to 2727. And it was almost all retraced through the noon hour. The opening print was ultimately touched upon e\Exiting the afternoon bias environment’s wide 20-point range. Rather than break lower to form a Wreversal Wednesday, yet another bounce probed the upper-end of the afternoon’s wide range up to 2710. The 3:37 position-squaring window started retracing the last bounce, no differently than the choppy afternoon’s two prior bounces. The 2687 open was being attacked to within a point 3 minutes of the cash session close. Those next 3 minutes continued dropping at the same steep pace down to 2679, which extended to 2667 into the futures settlement. That first probe under the opening print was 20 points under it.

Overnight action’s new info…
The late drop had not slowed its pace through Wednesday’s closes. The pace barely slowed as the drop extended through the Globex open, eventually touching Monday’s 2645.50 cash session close equivalent. Its relevance persisted as its support has served as the overnight low. Rallying through Europe’s opens touched yesterday’s 2679 cash session close equivalent before reversing back down to 2657.

If, then…
The most bullish element is the very late origin of Wednesday’s last downleg, so its sponsorship may be weak-handed and more easily rejected. This is further suggested, not actually signaled, by already retracing the post-close and overnight follow-through back up to yesterday’s cash session close. But it’s not enough for a reversal signal to only retrace the last relevant level, which is yesterday’s cash session close equivalent. That may just be noise. The prior relevant level must also be recovered to indicate stronger-handed sponsorship, which this morning is at least the bias-up signal. Meanwhile, the most bearish element is that two consecutive sessions have probed back above December’s prior highs intraday but failed to close higher — to an increasing degree, both in probing above and rejecting below. The same principle applied to Tuesday’s bottoming pattern, which followed the expanding weakness through Friday and Monday. Similar to that setup, not gapping up above yesterday’s lows to try isolating the overnight drop would be vulnerable to extending the drop. And the next lower objective would be a retest of Monday night’s low down to 2509-2511.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2679 would be unlikely to trigger the 2674 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2665 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s record intraday drop had extended sharply lower through the close, and much more sharply into midnight. Rallying 113 points through Europe’s opens had retraced it all to within 2 points of Monday’s cash session closing equivalent. A pullback consolidated into Tuesday’s open, which surged 100 points and probed positive territory. Another pullback consolidated into Tuesday’s bias environment exit, which surged 75 points to probe fresh highs… Just a normal Tuesday resolution of an expanding Friday-Monday setup, which we had discussed at Monday’s close. Two exceptions: First, the gargantuan size of each leg. Second, the pattern’s stages were accelerated into earlier timing windows. So, the “scary” morning developed fully overnight, and the short-squeeze came early.

Overnight action’s new info…
A narrow (relatively) 15-point range initially hovered above Tuesday morning’s high. By midnight it had slipped into another narrow (relatively) 15-point range hovering just under Tuesday morning’s high. That “second shoe to drop” feeling has lingered despite a steady stream of supportive, bullish comments coming from investment houses and central bankers. Perhaps the anxiousness is now ending as price is creeping back up into the initial range.

If, then…
Notice that I’m adapting the bottoming pattern for Monday night’s plunge to serve as the template’s “scary” morning. So, the pattern’s short-squeeze resolution is done, right? Maybe. Maybe overdone. Both Tuesday’s open AND its close surged. And the second surge originated too late to gain traction for its effort. All of which would be moot by now had last night rallied through Europe’s opens to indicate gapping up, preferably above 2715-2731. That 2715-2731 range is otherwise resistance, at least likely to be tested if the open can maintain a surge or gap up above yesterday’s last-minute 2700 high. Still ranging narrowly into the open would be vulnerable to trending sharply out of the open, in whichever direction. If down, or if opening strength were to falter, then a pullback has room to test Monday’s 2645.50 cash session close equivalent before threatening to probe under Tuesday’s lows.,, BITCOIN, ETC. Near-term resistance at 7850 is being probed by $500, just over 24 hours since probing our long-standing 6100 target by $200 (u.e. 5900-8300). RSIs are diverging negatively into the resistance test while volume slows. This leg seems close to done, potentially one more false break to fresh highs, before a likely pullback to test “lower prior highs” at 7750.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2686.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2682.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2673.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday morning’s gap down and follow-through from Friday’s 2822.00  close only pierced the pre-open low. Both of those lows had otherwise stopped optimistically short of  touching the earlier 2733.00 overnight low. But simply trading in negative territory post-open had put into play a test of at least 2722.00. A substantial bounce was possible first, and in fact, the morning bounced 30 points. But not a durable bounce, as fresh lows were probed during the noon hour. The afternoon plunged almost another hundred points down to 2635.50. There was still time for a 60-point bounce to retrace almost entirely down to 2645.50 at the cash session close. Futures settled more than 43 points lower at 2602.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Extending down 43 points after the cash session close into the futures settlement might seem like a lot. “Hold my beer,” said Globex. Another plunge down to 2529.00 subtracted another 116 points by midnight. Already rallying sharply into Europe’s opens then extended to within 2 points of yesterday’s 2645.50 cash session close equivalent. Its 30-point reaction down to 2573.00 is now bouncing.

If, then…
The plateau at December’s 2688.00 “lower prior highs” was probed from above and broken through that same session’s close. This requires so much selling pressure that it is highly unusual. The next lower prior highs is from early November at 2583.00. It was probed overnight by at least 50 points, but recovering to close above it today would still indicate a low is forming. Which conforms to the timing pattern created by Monday’s expanded follow-through, for a lower low Tuesday to launch a multi-session rally. The overnight lows don’t require being retested first, but the earlier drop could soften the damage a post-open drop might do, having room down to 2509.00 while still being able to recover (if tested early enough). Typically during a multi-session decline’s Tuesday, not already trying to rally into the noon hour isn’t helpful to bottoming… P. S. Bitcoin hit my $6100 target last night, probing it briefly by about $200 around midnight, so I have begun re-buying several cryptocurrencies.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2599.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2621.00 bias-down target by 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2627.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2638.00 bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s open gapped down 16 points to 2806.00, fulfilling the next lower objectives at 2805.00.That was 14-15 points above the pre-open low, which the first half-hour probed down to 2889.00. If not rejected into the noon hour, then the next lower objective at 2766.00 would be in-play. The relentless slide met it, and its room for noise down to 2760.00 at the cash session close. Post-close action spiked down to 2755.25. All of which retraced January’s rally by 61.8% back down to December’s ~2700.00 highs, reversing the first week of the annual earnings onslaught.

Overnight action’s new info…
Extending last week’s decline would next target 2747.00 and 2738.00 then 2722.00. Sunday night’s opening bar pierced 2738.00 by 2 ticks. It was probed and retested, but not broken before price firmed through the night to attack 2752.00. A pullback recovered to 2755.00 before diving into Europe’s opens. That held 2745.00 and recovered to test 2756.00 back at Friday’s post-close lows. That only seems to have angered and awoken last week’s decline, as the past 3 hours have trended straight back down to — and now 3 points through — 2738.00.

If, then…
Isolating the probe under Friday’s lows to the overnight would have formed a setup capable of new highs before allowing the next downleg. The past several hours plunging 20 points makes that unlikely. Still probing fresh lows at Monday’s open, and not recovering 2747.00 and 2738.00 would next target 2722.00. Testing it at the open could find no sellers, and produce a corrective bounce. But any bounce at this stage is only corrective, or at least should be required to prove otherwise.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2743.50 would be likely to trigger the 2747.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Despite an interim rally to 2837.50, Wednesday’s late test of 2814.50 down to 2813.00 was probed back down to 2809.50 just before Thursday’s open. Its reaction recovered 2814.50 into the open, and eventually attacked 2837.50 into the afternoon’s bias environment. Its attack was poorly timed, and bonds probing new lows set the tone for another drop back down to Wednesday’s 2813.00 low. Although there was no bullish reason for the area’s revisit, the close bounced and attacked 2824.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Post-close high-profile earnings (AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL) repeated the after-hours volatility that has become almost normal this week. But the initial Globex bounce up to 2831.00 was reversed back down to Thursday’s late 2812.50 low. Ranging at 2815-2821 gave way as Europe’s opens triggered a collapsed to 2797.00. Its reaction up to 2806.00 has been narrowing to form an Ascending Triangle.

If, then…
Of course, the bullish scenario is that this week’s selling has become more pessimistic than the news can justify. Which could be true, if this week’s selling were triggered by pessimism. But to the degree that it was “triggered,” excessive optimism better defines the origin’s sentiment. Pessimism has surely developed along the way down, and now there’s potential for having overly-discounted its sentiment ahead of this morning’s Employment Situation report. But optimism seems alive and well with the after-hours bounces among yesterday’s post-close earnings plunges. The most bullish scenario would recover enough pre-open to isolate the probe of fresh lows to the overnight — and also maintain and extend the recovery through the open. Another bullish scenario would quickly test the next lower objectives at 2805.00 and possibly 2793.50 and also quickly recover through the open. The weekend’s impending illiquidity can exaggerate the morning’s action in either direction, so first impressions may be lasting.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary levels are not considered on Employment Situation report days.