Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open back within Wednesday’s range had isolated the probe under Wednesday’s lows to the overnight. This Isolation setup was completed when the opening 15 minutes of volatility had maintained the recovery and also trended up. Its 12-13 point surge to 2723.00 reacted down to 2708.00 and still managed another upleg to fresh highs that touched 2731.00 at noon. Then the three-day old pattern of rejecting early strength resurfaced. The balance of the afternoon trended back down, probing under the morning’s lows down to 2696.50. But that was still within Wednesday’s range to avoid invalidating the Isolation setup, albeit barely. Closing action bounced to close 2-4 points above the critical 2701.50 level that still allows this week’s decline to be considered a pullback from last Friday’s high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s late bounce didn’t delay extending higher through the Globex open. Its first consolidation developed from just under 2715.00, and extended to attack 2728.00. Europe’s opens were greeted several points lower, on the way down to 2713.00, which has since bounced more than 10 points to attack 2724.00.

If, then…
The Isolation setup remained in-play yesterday by Wednesday’s lows holding as support. The fourth consecutive afternoon rejection of early strength failed to end in negative territory, also keeping the door open to reversing the recent trend. Of course, not recovering Wednesday morning’s 2716.00 low wasn’t optimal, but gapping up today could cure that by proxy. Last night’s bounce could be the beginning of the next upleg if it’s maintained above relevant resistance through the open — preferably above Thursday afternoon’s 2720.00 bias environment high or even Thursday’s 2731.00 noon high. And now having rallied overnight, a post-open rally would be doubly bullish for not attracting sellers and for still ignoring the four-day pattern of early rallies being rejected. Which necessarily means that not extending higher through the open could be doubly bearish. Fresh lows may be only a formality. More so, fresh lows would all but destroy the temporary pullback’s limited measurement. Friday Factors are likely to leverage either setup, whether to squeeze a post-open rally into a bigger recovery, or to help post-open sellers break through prior lows.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2720.00 after touching it post-open would be unlikely to exceed the 2721.00 bias-up signal through 10:15 or to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2715.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2712.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open was greeted at the overnight range’s upper-end. A choppy, wide overnight range, indicating flip-flopping between polarized opinions. a Tuesday afternoon’s sellers had gained traction, so not gapping up above a prior high would doom to failure any rally attempt. The open did rally, and then the morning, and finally the knee-jerk reaction to the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes, totaling 23 points from the open up to 2747.00. The bias environment exit reversed polarity, apparently delivering quite a shock as the balance of the session plunged 47 points to test the next lower objective down to 2700.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Extending down to 2693.50 through the futures close initially fell further to 2682.00 through the Globex open. Gradually recovering through the night greeted the Globex opens back at 2693.50. Cautious strength has gotten more daring, now having extended up to 2708.75. That’s back above Tuesday’s late low, and stretching the room for noise around a 61.8% retracement of yesterday’s last downleg (the post-position-squaring window). It’s resistance.

If, then…
Haven’t three consecutive rejected early rallies yet conditioned the market not to rally early? It seems that one of Pavlov’s dogs has gotten loose overnight, but he’s only reached the property’s fencing — resistance being tested by this overnight bounce. This could become an Isolation setup, by greeting Thursday’s open back within yesterday’s range and thereby isolating the probe under its lows to the overnight. Isolation setups tend to be durable reversals. Pavlov’s dog won’t hear the open’s bell if he’s already escaped over the fence. Ending the pullback from last week’s highs, whether to retrace the pullback or to resume the rally, in either case would rally today. Otherwise, not triggering the Isolation setup after fully forming it could be as bearish as the setup would have been bullish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2709.00would be unlikely to trigger the 2710.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2701.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2695.00 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Trending down through the weekend to eventually touch 2709.00 didn’t affect whether the bullish WedEX could influence Tuesday morning. In fact, gapping down to 2721.00 surged 11 points through the open to maintain the signal. A lengthy 14-point pullback resolved in a 20-point upleg to test 2737.50 into noon to fulfill the signal. WedEX’s influence ends there, which the balance of the session made obvious by sliding to fresh lows at 2705.75. Sellers gained traction through the bias environment exit and the final hour’s entry, before closing action bounced to touch 2720.00. Overbought RSIs at the high printed just after noon to avoid requiring a retest, while oversold RSIs at the afternoon’s low require a retest.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially firming slightly further up to 2721.50 suddenly collapsed before midnight, attacking yesterday’s low to within 2-3 ticks. A shallower bounce was still sizable, attacking 2719.00 before collapsing again to attack the low. The range has continued narrowing around 2714.00.

If, then…
Regardless of whether last week’s rally was only a temporary corrective bounce, it’s premature to pronounce its passing — let alone the previous decline’s resumption. Yesterday afternoon’s traction and oversold RSIs at its low haven’t been neutralized overnight, so the reversal attempt has no excuse not to become more obvious today. Not already rallying overnight makes the open unlikely to gap up enough to neutralize the afternoon’s traction. Satisfying its fresh lows, retesting oversold RSIs, and holding the next lower objective still could launch another upleg. The afternoon’s FOMC Minutes may prove instrumental to the market choosing its next direction.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2711.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2709.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2707.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s widening swings around 2737.50 had greeted Friday’s expiration open on a downswing to 2722.25. One more upswing persisted into the noon hour and extended up to 2754.75, fulfilling the rally’s next 2753.00-2757.00 objective. Yet another downswing fell to 2726.00 and the balance of Friday afternoon narrowed its range around 2737.50. This enabled the afternoon’s bullish WedEX to be considered only nominally influential, if dismissing the final 3 minutes.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night initially firmed to attack 2748.00. Reversing down extended through the night and into Monday’s holiday morning to 2719.50 before recovering to 2733.00 into the early close. Firming another 2 points into last night’s open briefly tested 2735.00 before returning back into a range contained above Monday morning’s lows. A downleg underway into Europe’s opens has broken to fresh lows at 2709.00, now consolidating in a wide range back up to yesterday morning’s 2719.50 low… Bitcoin meanwhile has all but ignored my 10,225-10,500 target for launching a corrective downleg. The area held initially, but was exceeded by $1,000. Its reaction down used my target area as support to consolidate the pullback, which has resolved up to fresh highs testing 11,600.

If, then…
The open is indicated to gap down. WedEX influences regular trading hours behavior, so gapping down is irrelevant. Friday afternoon’s bias environment didn’t trend down, and it ultimately absorbed dips. This behavior barely qualifies as remaining vulnerable to rallying sharply at the next regular open. But it qualifies. That said, even the most obvious influence on Friday still would require evidence coming out of Monday’s open. Initial strength would get every benefit of the doubt for extending through the morning. Otherwise, the morning would be free to trend down with potential to 2701.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2717.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2722.00 bias-down target through 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2725.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2729.75 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The past week has been marked with some meaningful recoveries. They began last Friday afternoon when the morning’s 60-point plunge rallied 110 points. They include Wednesday’s 49-point pre-open CPI-plunge that was retraced during the first hour and reversed up 70 points. Their last instance was Thursday morning’s 29-point drop which then rallied 55 points. The last one began from gapping up, so buyers have grown less patient. Two consecutive afternoons have rallied when they could have afforded to refuel the rally by backing-and-filling, also reflecting less patient buyers. Meanwhile, a second consecutive higher close above 2684.00 makes 2753.00-2757.00 even likelier.

Overnight action’s new info…
The rally has extended higher overnight in two distinct legs. Their reactions suggest a third upleg is needed soon to avoid reversing down. Thursday’s late surge firmed 6 points into and out of the 2732.00 cash session close to attack 2738.00. Then price action narrowed to a 6-tick (ticks, not points) range for several hours. A momentary surge after midnight reacted down to pierce the earlier overnight high down to 2732.50 — keep an eye on that level. A more considered extension to fresh highs attacked 2647.00 and also reacted down, attacking 2736.00. So far, still hovering back above yesterday’s highs.

If, then…
Call it a domino effect. Wednesday’s close above 2684.00 and Thursday’s close above 2698.00-2700.00 have put into play the next higher objective at 2753.00-2757.00. The higher objective seems to be intact and even in-play for today with overnight action trending up and this afternoon becomes yet to be influenced by the bullish WedEX. But be aware that a session-long signal can still invert the WedEX influence. I wouldn’t bother addressing that this morning, if not for overnight action having pierced the earlier Globex low (described above). Exiting the open under it would form the same sell signal that had triggered at the Jan 29 top to point lower through the following morning. At least that instance could have been contained to that morning, but today’s expiration is usually a session-long influence. Otherwise, the bullish WedEX influence could still be greeted lower if those dominoes that point higher test 2753.00-2757.00 early, which could quickly become more like a house of cards.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2744.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2740.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2738.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2732.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2726.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.