Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap up to 2348.00 was briefly consolidated before surging to attack 2855.00. RSIs diverged negatively on its retest, presaging a 30-point drop to 2825.50. The afternoon bounce probed a couple of points back above Tuesday afternoon’s highs up to 2845.25. It held as resistance through the close to prevent the afternoon’s buyers from regaining traction for their effort. However, Tuesday afternoon’s last relative lows at 2837.00 were recovered to prevent the morning’s sellers from gaining traction for their effort. Meanwhile, “unfinished business below” was created by the afternoon’s “bias-down rally” which requires retracing its 2835.50 bias-down signal that was recovered prematurely. Also left outstanding was Wednesday’s 2848.00 opening gap which requires an intraday retest.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially dipping through the Globex open pierced the 2835.50 attraction below by 1 tick before bouncing 8 points to test what is this morning’s 2843.00 bias-up signal. Its retracement down into Europe’s opens came within 1 point of the earlier low. Reacting back up has extended to fresh highs probing yesterday’s 2848.00 open by 2 points — also probing what is this morning’s 2849.25 bias-up target.

If, then…
Last night’s initial dip neutralized the required retest of 2835.50. Its recovery can’t neutralize the 2848.00 attraction until the open. And its probe is already testing the objective’s room for noise, with ECB, Draghi, and four pre-open econ reports yet to have their impacts. Almost any higher would become likely to probe yesterday’s 2855.00 high, and then 2872.25. Meanwhile, a new observation suggests otherwise. Yesterday’s drop rivaled last Tuesday’s 39-point high-to-low intraday drop. Yesterday’s low retraced 61.8% of the distance back down to the 2809.50 origin of last Tuesday’s drop. Several other Fibonacci relationships between the two drops and their interim price action all suggest the one-week, 85-point move reflects the same sponsorship. This implies that intraday behaviors will repeat. Not extending higher intraday is becoming likelier, as is an intraday rejection of morning strength. So, maintaining the rally depends on not rejecting early strength early.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2850.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2849.25 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2855.00. Exiting the open above 2845.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2843.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s impressive surge might have quickly peaked after extending into Tuesday morning. But a 13-point pre-open slide reinserted pessimism and refueled buyers. And probing fresh highs overnight created a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest. Threatening to open under the earlier overnight low could have been bearish, but absorbing it put into play a near-term retest of the overnight high. Which is what the morning did, probing it by 2-1/2 points. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways, above Monday’s highs. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the morning high’s the overbought RSIs.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s choppy sideways ranging shrank in size as it hovered at or above the afternoon’s 2837.00 lows. Surging well before Europe’s opens attacked the 2843.50 upper-end of yesterday afternoon’s range, then extended to new highs attacking 2847.00. Overbought RSIs at the intraday high were neutralized, and no complexity formed the requirement for a retest. Nevertheless, a reaction down to 2843.00 is now attacking 2848.00.

If, then…
If no interim downdraft appears before the open, then the overnight action could be the temporary relief rally that was yesterday’s original template. Three other helpful elements to topping are: avoid gapping up above yesterday’s 2844.50 high, probe the overnight high by 6-8 ticks, all by mid-afternoon. But that’s just enough to optimize the vulnerability to reversing down without leaving unfinished business above. Forming these topping elements without tracking the reversal template could resolve as bullishly as the resolution could have been bearish. Producing only a post-open pullback could still extend down, but probably not durably.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2840.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2843.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2845.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
A pullback triggered by the government shutdown was likely. The pullback was likely to be shallow, but unlikely to recover quickly. Sort of like the shutdown itself. Sunday night’s 8-point gap down to 2803.75 affirmed the expectation, as did the reaction down from a pre-open surge. I’m not sure whether the absence of rhetoric should have meant a political deal was close, but the market was clearly relieved — a deal was reached Monday morning while the market rallied to new highs. The morning’s bias-up target was probed up to 2822.50 during the open. The afternoon’s bias-up target was probed up to 2828.00 during the noon hour. The last half-hour surged most steeply to 2835.00 and 2836.50 into and out of the cash session close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially retesting the cash session close back down to 2834.00 was held, and the range had begun trending higher by midnight. A blip-up to 2842.00 into Europe’s opens wasn’t extended, but its move was complex to form a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring eventual intraday retest. A relatively narrow consolidation started slipping a couple of points, and now has collapsed into negative territory testing 2829.00. The first reaction up is already testing the earlier 2834.00 overnight low as resistance.

If, then…
To the degree that Friday’s very late probe higher can be considered a breakout, then Monday’s higher close could be considered its confirmation — but Fri/Mon breakout confirmations aren’t reliable. If the chart were inverted to form a plunging correction, then I would expect the friction of ground already covered previously to produce a reversal soon. Fresh territory like most of Monday’s range still has the friction of calculable resistance, but it’s more vulnerable to bigger capitulation. Now that the overnight probe has left a path of crumbs to find its way back up, then dipped back into negative territory, retesting the previously covered ground above can offer a more predictable friction. Probing the highs — perhaps up to 2848.00 — after gapping down would form the basis for a bearish Pivot Reversal if reversed into the close. Rallying this morning will be difficult if the earlier overnight low isn’t already recovered through the open, since yesterday’s high has been probed overnight. But a a deeper pullback this morning has a lot of room below to expend selling pressure before breaking any relevant levels that would damage the uptrend. The burden of proof is still on sellers.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2833.000 would be unlikely to trigger the 2831.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2830.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night had initially probed under the intraday low, testing support at 2792.00. Reversing up to 2806.00 was retraced 10 points down to 2796.00 before Friday’s open. That’s a lot of volatility. Friday’s expiration open continued the volatility by surging to 2808.00 and then swinging a couple of times down to 2801.00 and lower. Then, as is typical of Friday afternoons, volatility disappeared through the noon hour and most of the bias environment. But the balance of the session resumed the rally to new highs up to 2815.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
We discussed during this weekend’s Saturday Review that buyers would all but disappear ahead of Monday’s open. Nervous retail sellers are likely to flood Monday’s open in their first opportunity to react to the government shutdown. Sunday night’s open gapped down to what is this morning’s 2803.75 bias-down signal, and extended immediately to 2802.00. Immediately, but also briefly, bouncing almost as quickly back up to 2809.00 and later briefly 2810.50. Eventually dipping back down to 2806.00 has reacted up again.

If, then…
The open is likely to downtick from the retail crowd’s selling pressure. Its arrival is obvious, so the question is whether it’s quickly absorbed, or extended. Extending down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, would get every benefit of the doubt for extending into the noon hour as if the bearish WedEX were influential. Friday afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence wasn’t obvious, if it existed at all. The signal did not invert, and may as well be considered invalidated — except that it still provides a template for trending down throughout Monday morning. Later, the new trend extreme close on a Friday now requires another eventual new trend extreme close.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2805.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2803.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2809.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2812.50 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s session added to the week’s collection of multiple personalities. The pattern was already forming Tuesday, which had gapped up sharply to new highs and plunged sharply intraday. All of which Wednesday’s session-long rally had retraced into its final hour. Naturally, Thursday would be vulnerable to digesting the volatility, ranging choppily through the close. A flat-to-lower sentiment was inspired at first by not gapping up, and reinforced by the relentless series of dueling headlines ahead of a possible government shutdown. Price action was sloppy, but otherwise behaved appropriately at relevant levels during relevant windows.

Overnight action’s new info…
Intraday sentiment remained unchanged initially. Thursday night’s low fulfilled the potential down to Wednesdays “lower prior highs” at 2792-2793, which Thursday morning’s no-bias trending had barely attacked to within 1-2 points. Firming into Europe’s opens quickly became a rally that is attacking yesterdays highs to within 2 points at 2806.00.

If, then…
Although not required, Thursday’s flat-to-lower choppiness did not affect the potential for a probe of new highs. Last night’s probe under intraday lows and then its significant recovery make a probe of new highs even likelier. Actually requiring new highs still wouldn’t diminish the vulnerability of rejecting new highs intraday and trending down into the close. The afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence doesn’t impede new highs during the morning, but should erase them by the close.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2807.50 would be likely to trigger the 2805.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2801.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.