Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The FOMC taper announcement triggered substantial volatility as opinion’s flipped back-and-forth over its meaning, and prices flipped back-and-forth over relevant levels.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday morning’s sideways ranging reacted sharply to the FOMC news. Ultimately, little had changed, as the sideways ranging continues.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s FOMC news triggered a sharp break below the recent range that was recovered to probe the recent range’s upper-end. A fresh high testing 1.3833 remains likely.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows down to 1227.00 Wednesday were recovered by a spike up to 1237.00 before the afternoon’s FOMC news, which was greeted from above 1232.50 support. A reaction up to 1244.00 still fell back down to probe under 1232.50, still needing to close above at least 1237.00 to being signaling momentum reversing up.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A bounce retested Tuesday’s 20.12 high to within a penny Wednesday morning, peaking pessimistically short, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. The FOMC news reaction was very deep, but fully recovered by a probe above the morning’s high to suggest the rally is underway.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday morning’s gap back under the ongoing 129-16 sell signal didn’t extend down to fresh lows, and probed back up above the signal just before the afternoon’s FOMC news. Its reaction down to 128-13 was recovered to test 129-16 again.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Another test of the 97.85 bounce limit in reaction to Wednesday’s EIA report. There already was no bearish reason to further delay the long-awaited pullback to the 94.00 area. Closing above 98.35 would signal the pullback is being avoided and a new upleg is underway.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s retest of Monday’s highs up to 4.32 didn’t extend higher Wednesday ahead of the FOMC news or Thursday’s EIA report. But neither was it rejected, as the session ranged narrowly just under 4.30. A fresh high close would be credible for resuming the rally.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight One day before FOMC finally tapers — or, not — and the Gold pattern’s elasticity continues to keep the market guessing. A second consecutive higher close didn’t follow the last rally effort, suggesting that the sharpest move of the past two weeks will come Wednesday afternoon. And there have been some sharp moves already.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The gap back up to Friday’s close was filled during Tuesday’s flat choppy ranging. That makes any probe above it likelier to extend higher, since there is no bearish reason to revisit the neutralized attraction. By the same token, the recovery can’t tolerate dipping too much further without becoming a new downleg.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s flat choppy ranging seems to confirm the topping isn’t ready to reverse down. A fresh high testing 1.3833 is not necessary before reversing down, but it is still possible, and likely to complete a top.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s close AT 1245.50 didn’t prevent dipping back down under 1240.00. By a lot. The low touched 1226.50. Except for an interim spike up, the session was spent testing critical support at 1232.50. Greeting FOMC’s news from closing above 1237.00 would be bullish.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down to 19.75 reacted up so far as to fill the gap back to Monday’s 20.10 close. The 19.95 pullback limit was still being tested into the close. Having neutralized the gap’s potential attraction above, a recovery probably can’t tolerate closing under Tuesday’s low.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s bounce back above 129-16 avoided extending the sell signal’s break. Price action ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC announcement may continue to be erratic. But there should be no further backing-and-filling above if the ultimate resolution is still down.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Intraday strength held a test of the 97.85 bounce limit before dipping slightly back into negative territory. There isn’t much excuse for further delaying the pullback targeting 94.00, unless the pullback has already ended.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A deeper dip under 4.25 Tuesday was recovered into positive territory, back at Monday’s 4.32 high. Extending higher Wednesday would be credible for rallying into and out of Thursday’s EIA report.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s surge seems to confirm the ongoing pattern’s elasticity, but it doesn’t preclude the requirement for a second consecutive higher close to confirm.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
[Rolling coverage to Mar from Dec] Monday’s gap down suggests the 79.90 pullback objective (basis Mar, 79.75 basis Dec) will be tested before a durable rally can begin. Closing above 80.50 would signal the rally had begun anyway.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday and Friday’s confirmed reversal signal nonetheless suggested a corrective bounce would precede the eventual downleg. Monday’s gap up held 1.3775, and if not rejected immediately, then a fresh high should be tested up to 1.3833.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s surge through 1240.00 and 1245.50 attacked 1252.00 before settling back at 1245.50. Closing cleanly above 1245.50 would have been preferable, but fresh highs Tuesday would help to confirm that 1260.00 and higher is in-play.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Only having confirmed that Thursday’s plunge had gained no traction, Friday didn’t yet signal momentum reversing up. That didn’t prevent Monday’s strong surge back above 20.00. Exceeding 20.75 would confirm a more durable move underway, but 19.95 must meanwhile hold as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night’s bounce was retraced back to Thursday’s lows, maintaining the sell signal that had triggered under 129-16. The objective to retest the “V” bottom down to 127-28 remains intact.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s bounce filled the gap back up to Thursday’s 97.50 close, which maintains the momentum of Friday’s break lower. The 94.00 area’s pullback target remains in-play, so long as bounces also hold 97.85 and 98.35.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s gap down first bounced from 4.25 support, which was recovered after extending lower Monday intraday. Not closing under 4.25 allows the one-day dip to suffice for a correction before resuming the rally to its 4.48-4.51 target.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s dip Friday was interesting in its timing, as was Gold’s bounce. Both reacted to recent strong trending in the opposite direction, countering it into the weekend. If Friday’s reactions aren’t confirmed coming out of the weekend, then the original trends would be very vulnerable to resuming.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Flat-to-higher ranging Friday happened to confirm Thursday’s surge. Immediate and pronounced follow-through on Monday would help to confirm, as well. Otherwise, a retest of the low would be needed before the next credible rally effort.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s second consecutive close back under 1.3775 confirms the rally has peaked. But reversing down so soon may limit the pullback only to 1.3580-1.3605. Closing back above 1.3775 would invalidate the reversal, and give fresh highs another chance to exceed 1.3833.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming to close back above 1232.00 Friday not only prevented confirming Thursday’s plunge, but also suggested that sellers were done. Still, closing back above 1240.00 and 1240.50 is needed to signal that buyers have regained control for another upleg.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s narrow ranging avoided confirming Thursday’s plunge had gained any traction. But it did not yet threaten to reverse momentum up.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s dip absorbed the 30-year auction, which Friday’s relief rally corrected. Regardless, the 129-16 sell signal is still being tested, and now a fresh low under 128-28 would target a retest of the “V” bottom low down to 127-28.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The reaction down from testing the recovery’s 98.35 target seems to have begun, with Friday’s break targeting the 94.00 area.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s attempt to extend the rally only probed Thursday’s highs briefly. RSIs continued deteriorating. Nonetheless, a pullback would have room down to 4.25 before being considered anything more than just a pullback on the way up to 4.48-4.51.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond ranged narrowly through its monthly auction. Meanwhile, a sell signal is in-play. So, any strength while those two factors are pressuring it, might be reason to sell.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s surge to test 80.20 resistance would leave no unfinished business below if it were extended Friday to close above 80.35. Otherwise, the recent 79.75 low’s retest is likely without extending higher Friday.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Testing 1.3775 support Thursday threatened to reverse the trend down. That will be likely on a second consecutive lower close Friday in this pattern. There is otherwise potential for an oversold bounce to retest recent highs, and to actually test 1.8333 resistance.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s failure to confirm Tuesday’s surge was punished harshly overnight with a drop that gapped down Thursday to test 1232.00. That is a 61.8% retracement of the rally from last week’s low. Room for noise around it down to 1224.00 was tested, too. Closing under 1219.00 would signal that a new downleg was underway. Otherwise, closing back above 1240.00-1245.50 would trigger another rally leg.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap down back under prior highs formed an Island out of the two prior sessions. Gaps were made to be retested, albeit not necessarily immediately. But so long as a lower close Friday doesn’t confirm Thursday’s drop, then a recovery would be likely.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down slightly and ranging sideways through the day and through the afternoon’s auction did not extend the 129-16 signal targeting a retest of last week’s lows.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Ranging narrowly sideways doesn’t suggest a new upleg is forming, so much as a correction to the current upleg remains possible.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh highs overnight were probed intraday Thursday to 4.42. Dipping to unchanged at 4.31 was recovered to attack the morning’s highs, and to maintain the rally’s momentum. .

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