Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s intraday weakness Monday was less severe than its overnight weakness ahead of Friday’s open. Could it have fulfilled enough selling pressure to let a new upleg begin?

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s narrowly ranging inside day keeps the bounce off last week’s lows from gaining momentum. But a new downleg cannot begin without closing under 81.65, which should be tested intraday.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s reaction down from having retested the rally’s 1.3333 target was too shallow to indicate trending was underway. The inside day is not predictive, but does suggest the recent highs will be retested.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s retracement of Friday’s recovery did react up from probing under 1300.00. Almost any delay in resuming the rally would suggest a bigger downleg forming.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Monday held 19.65 support, and recovering back above 20.00 Tuesday would still be credible for launching a new upleg targeting 21.50.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s rally had stopped short of gaining traction, but Monday’s reaction down was more drifting than trending. There is no active pattern other than the potential for retestinglastw eek’s low down to 131-06.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Sunday night’s test of 106.00 was recovered just as was Friday’s test of 106.50. A deeper pullback targeting 103.55 isn’t necessarily in-play, but that’s still the likelier scenario.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The week began as last week had ended, drifting down to new lows. There is no active pattern, still needing a retest of “higher prior lows” at 3.55-3.60 to signal the drop may even be ending.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Only hours after recent support (and me) finally having had enough to make a break lower likely, an unlikely double-digit break lower plunged sharply. Then it recovered entirely on Friday’s jobs report. Could that have finally neutralized enough selling pressure for the rally to resume? Almost.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s break back under 82.10 suggests at least 81.65 will be tested before any credible bottom can form.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report bounced off of the 1.3225 pullback limit to retest the rally’s 1.3333 target.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The corrective dip to 1297.50 developed entirely overnight in a plunge that extended down to 1283.00. Its Employment Situation report reaction spiked back up to probe 1312.50. It was still being tested, keeping alive potential for retesting at least 1297.50. Back above 1319.00-1320.00 would resume the rally.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s spike up gained more than $1 to test 20.26. Its reaction down ranged narrowly under 20.00, but any renewed strength would be credible for resuming the rally.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s favorable reaction to the Employment Situation report helps to confirm the week’s lows did fulfill meaningful selling pressure. A retest of the lows down to 131-06 is probably needed eventually to form a durable bottom.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh highs attacking 109.00 Thursday night were rejected back down to 106.50, but not under 106.00-106.50 Friday which would have confirmed momentum was reversing down to 103.60.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Drifting to fresh lows into the weekend without accelerating the drop suggests that Monday may finally test “higher prior lows,” so that its reaction back down into the lower consolidation could form a bottom.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long-bond’s bounce Wednesday only neutralized its attraction above, without gaining any traction for the effort. Buyers were premature. Thursday’s plunge probed under Wednesday’s low. Who’s being premature, now? Well, buyers, if they don’t wait for a fresh low to be rejected.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s new low was reversed sharply overnight to probe all of the bounce limits. Back under 82.10 should at least retest Wednesday’s low, which is likely to hold as support.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s test of the 1.3333 target reversed down immediately Thursday to test the 1.3225 pullback limit, which held. Retesting the target should hold as resistance.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
(Still basis Aug)… Wednesday’s recovery back up to and through 1319.00-1320.00 was retraced again Thursday to spend much of the session ranging narrowly around 1312.50. While the range continues holding, its support is being chipped away more so than its resistance. At least a corrective dip to 1297.50 is becoming increasingly likely, in even the most bullish scenarios. Closing first above 1330.00 would start to signal the rally has resumed already.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging mostly around 19.65 Thursday has drawn lines in the sand — either recovering 20.00 would be very likely to extend through 20.60 to probe above 21.00, or else under 19.45 would target 18.88 and potentially new lows.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close in the 134-00 area was premature after Wednesday’s open had only recently fulfilled the drop’s 132-24 target — especially just ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Thursday’s slide under Wednesday’s low to 132-10 confirmed the bounce had only refueled sellers. At least the market is discounted ahead of Friday’s report, but it’s not being greeted from a position of strength. Fresh lows would target 131-06.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The strength of Wednesday’s rally above 105.00 was surprising enough, the pattern having yet to retest Tuesday’s 103.59 gap down under prior lows. By that standard, Thursday’s extension to 108.00 would seem outrageous. And it is, but still tracking a valid template — so long as Thursday’s peak were to reject any retest Friday by closing back under 106.00-106.50. Closing higher into the weekend would instead require testing 110.65 before the next downleg could form.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s narrow ranging did nothing to reject the recent break lower, or to accumulate a base. Thursday’s slide to fresh lows was already underway before EIA triggered a spike to fresh session lows.  There is no buy signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Long-bond fulfilled its target below just before the FOMC news. Was the reaction up excessively optimistic?

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Trending had resumed already prior to Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC statement, which extended the trending.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Trending had resumed already prior to Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC statement, which extended the trending.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite surging overnight through the 1330.00 buy signal to 1338.00, Wednesday morning’s drop probed under the 1319.00-1320.00 and 1312.50 sell signals — a somewhat surprising reversal. A post-close bounce in reaction to FOMC probed back above 1330.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s dip to 19.35 filled an outstanding gap before firming into the close, and then surging to 20.00 in reaction to the FOMC statement.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging was too timid to be considered defensive posturing ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC news. Wednesday morning’s plunge fulfilled the outstanding 132-24 target did a better job at discounting ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC news. The reaction up was a little optimistic, already filling the gap back to Tuesday’s 134-00 area close.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s rally from under 103.00 to above 105.00 avoided a second consecutive confirming close after Tuesday’s breakout. But it also expended buying pressure prematurely when it could not gain traction for its efforts. Tuesday’s 103.59 gap down under all prior lows must be retested from above to at least seal a bottom, if not to resume the decline.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still no signs of the market disagreeing with its recent break to fresh lows. Thursday’s EIA probably won’t clarify things. A probe back above “higher prior lows” must still be retraced back to the Monday’s opening gap down, whether to form a bottom or to extend lower.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long-bond’s inability to sustain upside momentum could be defensive posturing ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement. But its unfinished business below suggests either a negative reaction, or else a negative resolution will follow.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s bounce back up to 82.10 stopped short of the 82.20 bounce limit. But the decline probably cannot afford to hesitate resuming if its momentum remains intact.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Difficulty upon testing 1.3300 resistance Tuesday reacted down and ranged narrowly sideways. Now pullbacks must hold 1.3225 to maintain the rally’s momentum next targeting 1.3330.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another dip down to 1319.00-1320.00 tried to reverse momentum down Tuesday. Monday’s bounce was probably too shallow for sellers to be refueled yet. But breaking lower would get every benefit of the doubt if confirmed by a second consecutive lower close under 1612.50. Back above 1330.00 should have little reason to further delay launching a new rally leg.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s reaction down from gapping up had stopped optimistically short of actually filling the gap back to its open. That optimism was potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. Tuesday’s gap down confirmed as much, although the balance of the session only ranged narrowly around 19.65 prior lows. Back above 20.00 would resume the rally, and avoid extending down to 18.88.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s reaction down from retesting 135-00 resistance had bounced off of 133-26. Tuesday’s narrow ranging retested the low, not invalidating that the 132-24 gap is in-play.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Further delaying a recovery back above 106.00 all but confirmed that support had been chipped away. Tuesday’s break to fresh lows probing under 103.00 should extend to 99.00 so long as Wednesday were to confirm with a second consecutive lower close.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s break was not rejected immediately even to try forming an Island Reversal. A probe of “higher prior lows” up to 3.55-3.60 would likely reverse down to retest the lows.

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