Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s rally Monday could have probed fresh highs, but didn’t which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Ranging narrowly sideways Monday didn’t extend Friday’s drop, but the session did not retrace it, keeping the decline’s momentum intact so long as 82.20 were not recovered.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s highs held as resistance as price only ranged narrowly sideways Monday, so the rally’s momentum remains intact so long as 1.3205 were to hold as support.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s dip to the 1312.50 sell signal and recovery back above 1319.00-1320.00 extended sharply Sunday night. Testing 1338.00 stopped pessimistically short of probing fresh highs, which potentially is bullish from a contrarian perspective, so long as 1319.00-1320.00 now holds as support.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap up above 20.00 immediately filled the gap back up to Thursday’s close, and its immediate reaction down entered a narrow range around 19.90. Closing lower Tuesday would signal a bigger drop underway. Otherwise, back above Monday’s high would resume the recovery.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night’s test of 135-00 resistance held again and Monday extended down to 133-26, whose break Tuesday would suggest last week’s decline targeting 132-24 has necessarily resumed.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s retest of 104.00 did not yield any further bounce Monday as price ranged sideways, still needing to recover above 106.00 to avoid a deeper break targeting 99.00.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
There was no bullish reason for dipping Friday back into 3.55-3.60 support, which Monday’s open proved by gapping down to new lows. The gap down under all prior lows prevents it from serving as a bottom, although gapping up back above would form a temporarly Island Reversal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond ended the week optimistically back at resistance, leaving unfinished business below with another FOMC meeting just ahead.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The decline had resumed Thursday with a new low close, but not yet much of a new intraday low, which Friday fulfilled. Currencies tend to duplicate Friday afternoon trending, so the drop should extend initially so long as 82.20 isn’t recovered.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The rally had resumed Thursday with a new high close, but not yet any new intraday high, which Friday fulfilled. Currencies tend to duplicate Friday afternoon trending, so the rally should extend initially so long as 1.3205 isn’t broken.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Resuming the rally proved difficult Friday, as the 1319.00-1320.00 support was tested, and probed briefly down to the 1312.50 sell signal. Recovering to close above 1319.00-1320.00 kept alive potential to extend the rally.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down under 20.00 on Friday and extending down has left unfinished business above, making a second consecutive lower close Monday unlikely, but very dangerous.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s gap up extended higher intraday to test 135-00 resistance. Without closing above it, attraction back down to the 132-24 gap remains intact.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s key reversal setup was a little lacking, and then very much so as Friday gapped back down to erase Thursday’s gains and retest 104.00. Closing back above 106.00 would reinstate the rally, but there is otherwise no active pattern.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rejecting the 3.73 buy signal Thursday was punished by dropping sharply into the weekend to retest 3.55-3.60 support, which there is no bullish reason to be retesting.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s wide two-day swing was relatively shallow compared to recent trending. But it was noteworthy for probing so far above one session’s close, only to be rejected so far back under that session’s lows. The shock to the system might not resume trending immediately, but the correction should be ending.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s bounce was too weak to end the decline, which resumed Thursday, and remains intact so long as 82.40 holds as resistance.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s dip was too shallow to invalidate the rally, which resumed Thursday, and remains intact so long as 1.3195 holds as support.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s tumble from Tuesday’s post-close surge was extended only slightly Thursday before reversing well up into positive territory. The rally can resume, next targeting 1375.00, so long as 1312.50 now holds as support.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s pre-open dip to 19.75 recovered back above 20.00 again, and should no longer delay recovering to 20.55 and higher if a deeper drop is going to be avoided.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Relatively narrow sideways ranging Thursday follows two consecutive falling sessions. The drop should resume without much delay, or by rejecting an early blip-up.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Yet more fresh lows Thursday attack $104 to within a dime which launched a bounce back into positive territory testing 105.85. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm the Key Reversal. Otherwise, there is no requirement to trade any higher.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s early test of the 3.73 buy signal was rejected by another dip attacking the upper-end of 3.50-3.60, whose retest is becoming likelier.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Not extending its rally Wednesday suggests that Crude Oil’s higher targets are invalid.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s rally tried to retrace all of the prior two sessions’ decline, which would signal the decline had ended, but must now recover 82.75 to avoid resuming the decline.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s decline tried to retrace all of the prior two sessions’ rally, which would signal the rally had ended, but must now break back under 1.3145 to avoid resuming the rally.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Consolidating under 1335.00 Tuesday instead of above it made fresh highs likelier than a corrective dip. Although fresh highs came immediately after the close and extended considerably up to 1348.70, Wednesday immediately reversed and extended back down to 1312.70., with potential down to 1297.50 if not recovered immediately back above 1335.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s test of 20.00 was still being tested, and must hold Thursday in order to avoid extending down to 18.88.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s half-point gap down could not confirm Tuesday’s drop from 135-16 was a momentum reversal, but extending down to test 133-16 did, suggesting 132-25 is in-play.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s intraday recovery had stopped short of probing above Monday afternoon’s high, which would have been optimal for signaling momentum reversing up, signaled above 107.70. Wednesday exploited the vulnerability and extended down to fresh lows testing 104.80. Reversing up immediately Thursday back above 105.75 would be credible for extending higher intraday. The drop otherwise has room down to 104.25 before considering it to be a new downleg.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesay’s initial weakness was recovered to fresh highs at 3.78, but a reversal into the afternoon fell sharply to test 3.69, again avoiding a confirming close above the 3.73 buy signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude should resume its rally early Wednesday if its higher targets remain intact. Interestingly, the timing coincides with weekly EIA data.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s second consecutive lower close was still testing Monday’s intraday low, which undermines whether Monday’s break was actually confirmed. This sort of a breakout cannot hesitate extending if it is valid, and is likely to react back up sharply above 83.00 if it is not.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s second consecutive higher close was still testing Monday’s intraday high, which undermines whether Monday’s break was actually confirmed. This sort of a breakout cannot hesitate extending if it is valid, and is likely to react back down sharply under 1.3145 if it is not.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
That 1335.00 is relevant resistance was confirmed by Tuesday’s narrow range around it. But ranging mostly under it, instead of above it, suggests the rally will resume before a deeper pullback can develop.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down and attack on 20.00 support was “ineffectual pessimism.” It does not signal momentum reversing down, regardless of there being unfinished business below at 18.00.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s test of the 135-16 bounce limit was rejected by gapping down Tuesday. A second consecutive lower close would confirm the gap back down to 132-24 is in-play.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s gap down to test 106.00 reacted up to Monday afternoon’s 107.35 high, trying to resume the rally, which would be triggered back above 107.70 and targeting 110.50.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap and drop were rejected by Tuesday’s open that extended higher to test the 3.73 buy signal.

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