Daily Spot

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Today’s Highlight Crude Oil extended its pullback Monday instead of resuming its rally, which had resumed prematurely last week. That might have bought some time for a little more accumulation to extend the rally.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Having held 83.00 resistance into the weekend, the decline was vulnerable to extending. Monday’s fresh lows down to 82.15 must be rejected back above 83.00 Tuesday to avoid extending the decline.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s test of 1.3145 resistance jeopardized the decline’s resumption. Monday’s open had extended the bounce to fresh highs testing 1.3220. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm a bigger rally leg underway. Otherwise, the decline should resume with a vengeance sometime before Wednesday’s open.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The window had all but closed for resuming the drop that began Wednesday with its Pivot Reversal, since Thursday’s test of 1285.00 resistance wasn’t rejected before Friday’s open. Sunday night’s surge and Monday’s extension tested 1335.00. Probing above 1335.00 Tuesday but holding it again as resistance would signal at least a corrective dip underway targeting 1321.00 or 1297.50.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up through 20.00 allowed the session to extend higher, leaving at least two attractions outstanding below at 18.88 and new lows.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite extending Monday’s gap up above 135-16 higher intraday, it was retraced to test 135-16 into the afternoon. But filling the gap back down to 132-24 is still compromised if the drop isn’t resuming aggressively by mid-morning Tuesday.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Failing to produce a second consecutive higher close Friday prevented entrenching the rally’s momentum. Monday’s dip back down to within a dime of the rally’s prior target of 106.15 basis Sep (106.35 basis Aug) must react back up above 107.70 Sep (108.00 Aug) to reinstate momentum to the next higher target at 110.50 (110.65-110.75).

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s break under 3.73 was not timid. But it did leave outstanding the gap back up to Friday’s close that will need to be filled, and which should inhibit extending down meanwhile.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The weekend had plans for Crude Oil, and those plans differed from the open’s gap up. Its reversal into negative territory isn’t a sell signal, but it suggests that a higher high will also find ready sellers.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s ranging around 83.00 resistance was not recovered Friday, requiring any rally to recover 83.33 before confirming its strength as being more than noise.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s session was spent entirely in positive territory, holding a test of 1.3145 resistance. Just firming that much does jeopardize the decline’s resumption, especially if the decline has not resumed through Monday’s open.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Friday and then firming did not resume the Pivot Reversal setup that had formed Wednesday. While the reversal hasn’t been rejected back above 1294.70, its window for extending has all but closed, leaving only a small opportunity at Monday’s open (if not Sunday night) to be obvious.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s narrow ranging inside day did not offer any evidence of the recent drop trying to recover.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
135-16 resistance was retested again Friday, instead of Thursday’s test extending down for a second consecutive lower close. Now almost any early strength would be vulnerable to extending sharply higher, leaving only a small window for sellers to retake control.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
A second consecutive higher close was attempted Friday by extending Thursday’s rally up to 109.30. But the session reversed into negative territory to 107.50. Extending higher Monday to test the rally’s 110.65-110.75 target would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s gap down spent the entire session ranging narrowly sideways in negative territory without extending down. That was not bearish. But it also avoided extending Thursday’s rally to a fresh high, which would have confirmed a rally underway. Monday and Tuesday could still offer a similar two-day signal, so long as 3.73 holds as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas exploded upward in reaction to Thursday’s EIA report. It had already gapped up from Wednesday’s uncredible dip. Ongoing accumulation should now be trending.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Ranging around 83.00 doesn’t equate to recovering, which would signal an upleg underway if confirmed above 83.33.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s gap down didn’t extend much further before ranging sideways through the day. But not testing 1.3145 resistance suggests the drop back to 1.3020 remains intact.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s narrow ranging was resisted by 1285.00, preventing buyers from gaining traction. But the resistance test should have been rejected more forcibly intraday if Wednesday’s drop was reversing the trend down and not just correcting the rally. Not extending down sharply overnight would suggest Wednesday’s drop had been absorbed.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sideways ranging Thursday has probably only delayed the pattern eventually extending down to test 18.88 and then potentially fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A retest of 135-16 resistance did reverse back under 135-00, signaling the bounce had ended. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm filling the gap back down to 132-14 is in-play.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s gap up through 106.35 resistance extended to fresh highs. A second consecutive higher close would confirm the 110.65-110.75 target is in-play.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Thursday was extended sharply higher on the EIA report, triggering the 3.73 buy signal in-time to still consider recent dips in to the 3.55-3.60 range as accumulation. A second consecutive higher close would confirm 4.10 is in-play.

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Today’s Highlight Gold’s “ineffectual optimism” Tuesday doomed Wednesday’s probe of fresh highs. The reaction down was very destructive.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s choppy ranging around unchanged ultimately ended flat, still needing to recover 83.00 and 83.33 to signal momentum reversing up.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s attack on last week’s Bernanke reaction was cut short Wednesday by this week’s Bernanke reaction. Wednesday’s initial drop was recovered to probe temporarily above 1.3145 resistance up to 1.3165. Unless resistance were probed again Thursday, a slide back down to 1.3020 should be underway.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap down to test 1285.00 was saved momentarily in reaction to Bernanke’s un-embargoed remarks, which triggered a surge to fresh highs attacking 1300.00. But the open’s gap down was revisited and broken before the morning ended. The resulting Pivot Reversal setup also tested 1271.00, which should not have been revisited unless momentum were reversing down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s probes above 20.00 were reversed back down to 19.55 and lower at an accelerated pace to test 19.25. Its break would target 18.88 and fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction to Bernanke’s remarks extended this week’s bounce to fully test its 135-16 resistance, which held after being probed intraday up to 135-28. Filling the gap back down to 132-24 should be in-play so long as 135-16 isn’t recovered.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s failed probe above 106.35 did not extend down Wednesday, as the session only ranged narrowly sideways.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s gap down fell a little further to attack the upper-end of 3.55-3.60 support, but selling pressure was too weak to dig deeper. The gap was left outstanding ahead of Thursday’s EIA report, which would be an appropriate catalyst to launch a rally above 3.73.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s fresh high Tuesday quickly peaked, but only to range sideways through the day. Is it a resumption of last week’s string of gaps up, or a last gasp before reversing back down?

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The 82.60 low in reaction to Bernanke’s speech was all but retested Tuesday. Back above 83.00 and 83.33 would signal momentum reversing back up.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Last week’s temporary surge on Bernanke’s speech to 1.3212 was never attacked intraday, not until Tuesday’s gap up above 1.3100 extended to test 1.3165. Back under 1.3180 after testing 1.3212 — if 1.3212 were retested — would signal momentum reversing back down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s probe of fresh highs above 1288.00 and 1293.00 reacted back down twice to attack 1285.00 whose break would signal that buyers were absorbed. The session’s “ineffectual optimism” essentially requires that break to develop Wednesday, or else a bigger rally leg would be underway.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s test of 20.00 held as resistance. Back under 19.55 would be likely to extend down at an accelerated pace, potentially targeting fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s retest of 135-00 could extend to 135-16 before suggesting that a detour was underway, with potential up to 137-00 before finally filling the gap back down to last Wednesday’s 132-24 close.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s recovery back up to 106.35 resistance extended higher momentarily Tuesday before reversing back under 106.35. A deeper corrective dip to 103.30 would still be preferable to launch a more reliable rally leg targeting 110.65-110.75.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The violent rejection of Monday’s dip into 3.55-3.60 support tried extending higher Tuesday, but still failed to recover the 3.73 buy signal.

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