Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s plunge Tuesday undermined buying spread out over the past three days. So, fresh lows must print Wednesday if the decline’s momentum remains intact.

Dollar Basket Apr Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s drop had bottomed upon testing prior lows. Tuesday’s gap open reacted up sharply, but it was all retraced back to Monday’s 79.70 close. Back above 80.10 would trigger a new rally leg.

Eurodollar Apr Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s gap up had only begun testing resistance. Tuesday’s gap down recovered to fill the gap back to Monday’s close. Any potential to 1.3290 probably depends upon extending higher without delay.  Back under 1.3190 would resume the decline.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The likelihood for reacting down from Monday’s 1670.00 high to test 1650.00 was fulfilled immediately down to 1641.00 Tuesday. The only bullish element is the gap back to Monday’s 1666.50 close. Almost any lower close Wednesday would be likely to resume the decline next targeting 1590.00-1606.00.

Silver Apr Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s open gapped down under 32.30 to resume the decline. More importantly, last week’s ~32.00 low was probed into the afternoon as selling pressure increased. The trend remains down so long as 32.30 is not recovered.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The decline’s next target at 134-10 would remain in-play so long as bounces held 135-16 as resistance. Tuesday’s open gapped up to 136-04, but dipped briefly back into negative territory at 135-07. The entire session ranged around 135-16, so the next trending attempt should be false, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The potential for briefly rallying to fresh highs depended upon maintaining Monday’s break above 107.20. Tuesday’s open gapped down under 107.00 and extended down to 105.35. Recovering to close Wednesday above at least 107.20 would maintain the rally’s potential. Otherwise, Monday’s test of 108.00 would become an Island Reversal pointing down.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) edit

Tuesday’s lows held repeated tests of 2.32. A fresh high above 2.42 may be the minimum requirement to avoid resuming a decline.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond continued to weaken from last week’s 30-year Treasury auction, hurt by the stock market’s rally attracting risk capital from safe havens. Either its drop is fast-approaching significant support, or Tuesday will cut short its decline altogether.

Dollar Basket Apr Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The pullback from last week’s 81.05 high extended further Monday to test 79.60. This was also the last pullback’s low one week earlier on the way to 81.05. Considering the current pullback’s origin was a bias-downward inside day, and also considering that RSIs are oversold, this test of 79.60‘s prior low should react up sharply if the rally still has potential to resume.

Eurodollar Apr Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s rally to 1.3272 extended the rally from last week’s 1.3010 lows. While there is room for extending up to 1.3290 before a bigger rally would become likely, the decline is free to resume at any time.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s test of 1661.00 had reacted back down to 1640.00. Friday’s rally to 1661.00 had held its resistance. Neither stopped Monday’s session from eventually firming to fresh highs at 1670.00. Now almost any initial weakness would be likely to test 1650.00, whose break through the close would resume the decline targeting new lows.

Silver Apr Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Rather than close under 32.30 to resume the decline, Monday’s flat open eventually surged to test 33.00. Now closing under 32.65 would signal a new downleg underway, confirmed under 32.30.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s open did not immediately resume the decline, but its overnight test of 137-00 and the open’s gap up were quickly rejected. Almost the entire session trended down to fresh lows at 135-05.Now 134-10 remains in-play so long as bounces hold 135-16 as resistance. Closing above 135-26 would target 137-10.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s last-minute $1 surge to 107.24 extended higher immediately into Monday’s open, for another $1 gain testing 108.24. The rally still seems premature, but that might only encourage an aggressive reaction down from ultimately testing 111.00-111.75, which are in-play so long as pullbacks hold 106.30 as support.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) An initial dip Monday reacted up sharply from 2.28 to a fresh high at 2.39. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm a bigger rally underway, initially targeting 2.51.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Apr Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s inside day was biased upward, leaving outstanding a gap back to Wednesday’s close. The setup is likely to resolve down, but Friday’s session still extended higher. Closing back above 80.30-80.40 would signal the rally had resumed, targeting 80.85.

Eurodollar Apr Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s inside day has yet to resolve down, and Friday extended higher. Closing under 1.3130 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 1.3090, targeting the gap back down to 1.3020.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s bounce held 1661.00 resistance to prevent a rally from gaining traction. Friday’s opening gap back down to Thursday’s 1640.00 low produced another bounce up to 1665.00, that held 1661.00 again through the close.

Silver Apr Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s gap down recovered quickly to fill the gap back to Thursday’s 32.71 close. Closing under 32.30 would signal the decline had resumed.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Like Thursday’s gap down, Friday’s open also gapped down to 135-30. It also recovered quickly to fill its gap back to the prior session’s close around 136-18. And it also left outstanding a gap back to the prior close. But unless Monday’s open immediately resumes the decline, a bigger correction targeting 138-22 should be underway.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) SPR news had triggered a $2 plunge Thursday to fulfill the drop’s minimum objective of probing fresh lows. Its 104.85-105.15 bounce limit was still being tested at the close. Middle East saber-rattling Friday extended the recovery to 107.20. Unless sellers retake control Monday, then new highs should be in play at 111.00-111.75.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Friday’s range was the week’s narrowest as 2.32 resistance again served as resistance. The extended narrowing range is starting to risk a false breakout that reverses back into and through the range.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Apr Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s gap down extended down throughout the session. But it was an “inside day,” contained within the prior session’s range. Combined with its downward bias, the setup tends to resolve bullishly. The gap outstanding back up to Wednesday’s close should help to attract price higher.

Eurodollar Apr Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Having failed to close under 1.3020 Wednesday to accelerate the decline’s pace, instead ranging narrowly around it, Thursday’s session became vulnerable to a bounce. The open gapped up and the entire session trended higher, but remained within Wednesday’s range to form an “inside day.” An upward biased inside day tends to resolve bearishly.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Fresh lows before Thursday’s open attacked 1636.00. Although a later rally tested 1667.00, closing under 1661.00 kept alive the decline’s momentum, and the likelihood for resolving down to resume the decline.

Silver Apr Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s recovery attempt went out testing Wednesday’s gap down as resistance. It is natural resistance, which should hold any early testing of 33.00 resistance Friday morning in order to resolve down into the weekend.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Overnight lows down to 135-18 were recovering slightly into Thursday’s open, but not enough to avoid gapping down. The gap down was quickly recovered back into positive territory, but only back into positive territory, as much of the session only ranged narrowly around unchanged into the close. There remains potential down to 134-10 so long as 137-10 is not recovered.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) News Thursday about releasing SPR triggered a $2 spike down to 103.78. It was recovered entirely when the news was questioned. The break’s  momentum would remain intact so long as 104.85-105.15 wasn’t recovered through the close — it was still being tested, so initial weakness at Friday’s open would be credible for extending down into the weekend.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s 1712.00 resistance had stopped a decline, albeit prematurely. Wednesday’s plunge to 1636.00 suggests that decline has resumed. Meanwhile, Crude Oil is slipping back from its own corrective bounce to retest recent lows. All while the long bond suffers one of its worst days in one of its worst weeks. Paradigm shift, anyone?

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The rally targeting 81.25 basis Jun (80.85 basis Mar) depended upon extending higher without delay. Wednesday’s session did that, testing fresh highs to 81.06. The rally remains intact so long as 80.75 holds as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Closing under 1.3020 would be likely to accelerate the decline’s pace. But its test Wednesday held as support, delaying the next lower objective under 1.2975.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The entire bounce from 1663.00 to 1712.00 was finally retraced after Tuesday’s close. The bounce’s origin was shattered Wednesday on the way down to 1635.80. So long as 1676.00 were to hold bounces, the drop is targeting 1592.00-1605.00.

Silver Apr Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Having rejected any unfinished business above, only a decisive close under 33.60 was preventing a new downleg. Wednesday’s drop to fresh lows at 31.62 all but require an immediate surge to avoid at least retesting 29.55‘s “lower prior highs.”

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The ultimate 138-16 target wasn’t so ultimate. Wednesday’s open gapped down under it from Tuesday’s 139-00 close, and extended lower to 136-12. It could extend further to 134-10 so long as 137-10 is not recovered.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s corrective bounce to test 107.20 resistance reacted down at Wednesday’s open, and eventually tested 105.12. Just closing under 106.30 suggests the probe to fresh lows under 104.00 is underway.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Tuesday afternoon’s surge to 2.32 resistance did not extend higher Wednesday. But neither was it rejected. The pullback held a test of 2.27. The rally is free to resume.

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