Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Just another port in a storm. Perhaps it was due only to Gold’s plunge, but the Dollar surged through 74.15 Thursday and attacked its 74.55 resistance to within a nickel. Probing above 74.55 intraday Friday but closing under it would likely close under 74.15, too. Otherwise, a close above 74.55 would target 76.00.

Gold Dec (GCZ) This is going to take a while. Sharply lower lows overnight extended through the 1739.00 objective to test 1705.00. Newer patterns projected significant support in the 1708.00-1709.00 area. Its reaction up to 1739.00 reacted back down to 1708.00-1709.00, allowing a corrective bounce targeting 1775.00 that was tested after the pit close. The bounce might extend up to 1783.00-1784.00 before reversing down.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Just arguing over price. Thursday’s 38.76 low stopped short of this drop’s 37.06 target. I noted in the blog’s comments section that the 40.22 bounce limit could be extended up to 40.95 without taking the 37.06 target off the table. The session closed while testing 40.95. Closing under 40.55 would signal the downleg had resumed.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) It’s settled then. Thursday’s bounce to 137’24 stopped short of recovering 138’00, confirming Wednesday’s break. That doesn’t preclude another 1-2 sessions spent probing the prior consolidation from below, e.g. the resistance of its 139’06 higher prior lows. But its resolution is now likely to be down to 133’02 and 129’00.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Tease. The recent bounce finally failed Thursday by dropping from 86.55 to 83.00. But it recovered to close back above 84.80, instead of closing under it to trigger a durable downleg 82.25 and 80.65. That remains likely, so long as 86.40 is not recovered.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Sellers still push, but it no longer falls down. Wednesday’s rejection of Tuesday’s close above 4.00 extended down toward recent lows after Thursday’s EIA report. It was recovered to close back above 3.92. Closing back above 4.00 would still be considered a breakout, and strong follow-through intraday would not be surprising.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Try, try, infinity again. Wednesday’s gap down to 73.75 was under Tuesday’s low. An intraday bounce to 74.10 was retraced entirely to a fresh low that chipped away at uptrending support. A reaction up into the close held 74.15 resistance – again – creating support at 73.90. Closing beyond either is likely to extend in that direction, targeting either 74.55 above or 73.00 below.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Not so precious metal. Despite bouncing overnight to 1856.80, the 1817.40 objective attracted Wednesday’s open back down. I had noted in the morning Market Tour  “close under 1817.40 and this pattern is toast, we’ll be looking for a much more substantial decline.” Too late. The session extended down to 1755.10. Just closing under 1779.00 put into play 1739.00, so long as bounces were to hold 1764.00 as resistance… CME raised margins, lower lows testing 1744.00.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Through thick and thin. The rotation ended according to Silver’s underperformance vs. Gold, making both ready to reverse down into a major downleg. And they did. This leg can extend down to 37.06 so long as 40.22 is not recovered on a closing basis.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Broken bonds. Tuesday’s outside day didn’t take any time to be absorbed. Wednesday’s open slid into an afternoon low at 136’24. Closing back above 138’00 on Thursday would trap shorts and target a retest of 141’06. Otherwise, the trend is down, and no more than 1-2 days of bouncing back to 139’06 should delay extending the drop back down to 133’02 and 129’00.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Time to turn. Wednesday’s inside day probed Tuesday’s high before closing negative. Closing under 84.80 would signal momentum reversing down, targeting 82.25 and 80.64. Otherwise, a close above 86.40 would extend the rally to at least test 88.00 resistance.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Getting ahead of itself? Not anymore. Tuesday’s close above 3.95 and 4.00 was retraced through Wednesday’s close. Another close above 4.00 would still be credible for sealing a bottom – perhaps Tuesday’s break was premature ahead of Thursday’s EIA report.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Another false start. Tuesday’s open gapped down under Monday’s 73.90 low from its 74.15 close. The balance of the session ranged sideways, exclusively in negative territory, but back above Monday’s low. This is “ineffectual pessimism.” It’s not a buy signal, but retesting 74.15 would be likely to close above it, and that would target 74.55 and then 76.00. Otherwise, a second consecutive lower close Wednesday – under 73.90 – would put into play at least 73.00.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Dangerously thin air up here. Monday night’s new high up to 1917.90 was retraced entirely before Tuesday’s open, which gapped down to 1881.00. That left no unfinished business above. Breaking under 1873.00 would have robbed buyers of their traction. The drop extended down after the pit close to 1826.00 and should also test 1818.00. A bounce has room up to 1839.00 without the decline losing traction.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Outperforming Gold, on pullbacks. The open’s gap down Tuesday recovered only briefly into positive territory above 43.43 before reversing down further to 42.00, and then after hours to 41.50. Unless Wednesday’s close were to recover positive territory, this may be the beginning of a much bigger downleg.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Volatility is alive, what about the trend? Tuesday’s opening gap down to 138’28 was unlikely to extend since it originated from a narrow extended range. In fact, it was reversed into positive territory at 140’16 above the prior two sessions’ highs. That didn’t prevent another dip into the close back under the prior two sessions’ lows to close at 139’02. That wasn’t necessarily bullish, as outside days expend a lot of energy. Gapping down or closing under 138’00 would still trigger a new downleg, but 141’06 could be retested first.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Testing big resistance. Tuesday’s session probed natural resistance at “higher prior lows” – the 86.10 lower-end of the trading range that launched the last downleg. Being resistance, a reaction down is likely, signaled under 83.65 and targeting 80.00 and lower. Closing above 87.65 – preferably by gapping up – would target 92.00.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) An opportunity to rally. Closing above 3.95 and 4.00 in the same session offers greater confirmation in momentum reversing up. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm. Its minimum objective would be 4.20, with potential to 4.50.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) False start, again. Despite gapping down at its open, Monday’s positive close did not confirm Friday’s break under the 74.15 sell signal. Monday’s positive close was only modestly higher, and spent the afternoon hugging 74.15 as resistance, so immediate weakness at Tuesday’s open would be credible for extending down. A close above 74.55 is still needed to signal momentum has reversed up.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Day-long buying produces nothing new. Thursday night’s test of the 1181.00-1182.40 area was exceeded Sunday night up to 1898.60. It was retested intraday up to 1899.40, after reacting down to 1858.00. The $40 dip was still so optimistic that it only narrowly avoided filling the gap back to Friday’s close. And now there is no overnight high yet to be tested. Closing under 1181.00-1182.40 would have been bearish Monday, but an early break under 1873.00 could gain traction to the downside intraday.

Silver Dec (SIZ) All that glitters isn’t gold. Another glimpse of rotation came in Monday’s intraday uptrend which, unlike Gold, extended through its overnight highs. The 45.55 target is in-play, so long as 42.55 holds as support.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) The calm before storming higher. Monday’s narrow range wasn’t much narrower than Friday’s inside day. In any case, sellers did not gain traction, making a retest of the 141’06 high likely. A downleg could be credible after closing under 138’00.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) False bravado. Initial weakness overnight on the Libya news fell to 81.18. It was absorbed and reversed to gap up back at Friday’s 83.85 highs. The balance of the session ranged sideways, momentarily piercing negative territory under 82.50. While the ultimate reaction to the overnight news was not as bearish as its first blush, its recovery didn’t gain any traction. A close under 82.50 would put into play a retest of August’s lows.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) This time, with feeling. Friday’s gap up never improved intraday. And it was totally retraced Monday, almost back down to Thursday’s low. Now closing above 3.95 would signal a bottom forming, but a close above 4.00 is needed to signal momentum reversing up.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Try, try, etc. After two consecutive breaks failed to confirm the following day, Friday’s open broke lower again. Its close under 74.15 signals that a downleg is underway, targeting at least 73.00. Friday’s 73.68 low did fill the gap back to Wednesday’s 73.75 close, without closing below it, making a second consecutive lower close that much more necessary to confirm the new downleg.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Gold rush. Thursday’s close above 1818.00 signaled the upleg was extending, unless Friday’s open had gapped down back under 1790.00. Overnight action tested 1881.00, pretty much preventing the latter.  The extended targets were 1863.00 and 1880.00, so 1863.00 must hold as support to maintain the extended rally’s momentum. Having tested 1880.00 only overnight, its intraday retest is likely but not required. Closing above 1882.50 would signal the upleg extending again.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Getting to enjoy its ride. Friday’s gap up to 41.75 and 42.58 intraday high never touched the 42.64 overnight high. Just closing above 42.55 would next target 45.55.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Resting on its laurels. Thursday’s test of the 140’00 area fulfilled any unfinished business above, without closing above prior highs. Buyers of that stage of the rally gained no traction. Friday’s narrow inside day avoided upsetting the pattern. Ranging narrowly through Monday morning should launch at least a probe of the 141’06 high. Pullbacks meanwhile now have room down to 138’12 without sellers gaining traction.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Soft landing. Thursday’s drop extended down sharply overnight to 79.37 (basis Oct, 79.17 basis Sep). Intraday ranging barely dipped under 81.50 only momentarily. But 83.05 wasn’t required, so the trend’s momentum remains intact, next targeting a retest of the recent 78.25 and 75.71 lows.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Bringing up the rear. Friday’s gap up and close above 3.93 is trying to finish the job that Thursday started. That had at least recovered from fresh lows to close back above prior lows. Closing clearly above 3.95 would have been helpful, but recovering 4.00 soon after Monday’s open would be credible for launching a rally leg.

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