Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Try, try again. Thursday’s gap up extended higher to avoid confirming Wednesday’s break, just like Tuesday’s gap up had avoided confirming Monday’s break. While 74.15 was recovered through the close, 74.55 held its test as resistance. So, another break under 74.15 could reinstate the drop’s momentum. But closing above 74.55 would still require a second consecutive higher close to confirm momentum had reversed up.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Bouncing on old box springs. Having recovered 1790.00, a retest of 1818.00 was put into play. And it was tested Thursday up to 1829.70. It nearly defined the afternoon’s support through the close. That’s a big target to test after Wednesday’s new high close, which was not itself a new intraday high. A second consecutive higher close above 1818.00 would make the rally likely to extend ($2000?). Closing back under 1790.00 would trigger the next downleg.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Dragged higher by gold? Thursday’s fresh high tested long-standing resistance at 40.75. A second consecutive higher could extend the rally at an accelerated pace. I would want to see 41.45 broken on that close for confirmation. Otherwise, buying pressure is being satisfied without yet gaining new traction, becoming vulnerable to reversing back down.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Trying to beat the next downgrade. Tuesday’s close above 136’20 got its confirmation Wednesday, and then met is target Thursday by retesting 140’00 (up to 141’06). The 139’29 prior high held as resistance through the close, suggesting that buyers gained no traction for their efforts. Now a dip has room down to 138’24 just as noise. But closing under 137’10 would signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Acting like there’s no bottom in sight. The reaction down started Thursday after Wednesday’s test of 89.00, instead of first testing 90.00. And the reaction down extended to 81.15. Closing under 83.25 already puts into play a retest of 78.25 and 75.71. A second consecutive lower close would confirm. Otherwise, closing back above 83.25 Friday would put into play a test of 90.00, and probably a much more substantial upleg.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Trying to avoid a bottom. A spike up in reaction to Thursday morning’s EIA report attacked 4.00 but was reversed to a new low at 3.84. Another reaction up ended the day testing 3.90 as resistance. Rejecting new lows intraday to close above 3.93 would have sealed a bottom. Closing Friday above 4.00 would also suffice.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Darkest before the dawn? Tuesday’s bounce didn’t gain traction, but neither did it confirm Monday’s break that signaled a new downleg underway. Wednesday’s opening gap down to fresh lows now requires its own confirmation from a lower close Thursday. Having filled the gap back to the three-week old low, the only unfinished business below is this downleg’s 73.00 target.

Gold Dec (GCZ) New high close, but not new high. Wednesday ranged flat-to-higher, and ultimately closed higher. It was a new high close, but under both the week-old 1801.00 high, under Tuesday night’s 1797.60 high, and under last week’s 1817.60 overnight high. This week’s rally isn’t gaining traction, but it has room to extend higher before a downleg would be credible.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Chipping away further at resistance. A fresh high up to 40.61 was probed intraday Wednesday. An afternoon dip returned it all to fill the gap back to Tuesday’s close. But a bounce into Wednesday’s close retraced more than 61.8% of the afternoon’s drop, so its buyers did gain traction, making some follow-through likely Thursday.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) The path of least resistance, literally. Wednesday’s weak open was inconsequential and held its test of 136’20 as support. A mid-morning rally extended higher to 138’02. Although a pullback has room down to 137’02 before the bounce would even start losing traction, the pattern’s normal behavior at this stage would simply extend higher to fulfill the retest of 140’00.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Conserving energy that buyers don’t have. This pattern continues to be defined by its flat-to-higher ranging. Wednesday’s open actually gapped up above the 88.00 recent highs and extended up to 89.00 before reversing back down within the range to 86.65. The 90.00 objective may be met before another downleg can retest recent lows. But 90.00 is an inflection point whose test must be rejected almost immediately to prevent the current bounce from accelerating sharply higher.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) A little too sunny-side up. Wednesday’s sideways ranging was supported optimistically above 3.92‘s prior lows. More optimism Thursday morning ahead of EIA reports would be vulnerable to reversing down hard in reaction to the news. But a fresh low that recovers on the news could form a durable bottom.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Not another false break. Tuesday’s gap up probed 74.15 as resistance. Its break as support on Monday had signaled the new downleg underway. The gap back to Monday’s 73.94 close was filled but held as support, while 74.15 held as resistance. A second consecutive lower close would have been optimal to confirm the drop’s momentum remained intact for Wednesday. But almost any break under 73.90 would still be credible for resuming the decline.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Going out with a bang. Outsized gains extended Monday’s rally by gapping up $20 up to 1780.00, and ranging sideways intraday up to only 1790.00. If the corrective bounce has ended, then it intends to test 1818.00 intraday. Either way, this leg should be the last major upleg pending a much deeper extended bear market.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Gong out with a whimper, but going out. Although not quite to the same degree, Gold’s intraday rally was distributed among Precious Metals. And Silver met relevant resistance at 40.15. Either the bounce has now ended, or else a higher high targeting 40.75 should precede a major downleg. Closing above 41.00 would put into play a test of 42.25.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) In the absence of breaking lower. Closing above 136’20 has once again opened the door for a corrective bounce targeting a test of the 140’00 area. Wednesday’s pre-open PPI following suit with Tuesday’s Industrial Production surprise could be the catalyst.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Trying to find its footing. Still not impressed with the rally’s lack of follow-through, even for a corrective bounce. It still has room up to 90.00, but recent lows should be retested regardless.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) An opportunity mostly missed. Fresh lows Tuesday confirmed that Monday afternoon’s surge was overly-optimistic. But Tuesday’s low also stopped optimistically premature of probing prior lows, which would still help to form a more durable bottom.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Making up for lost time. Monday’s open gapped down to and through the 74.55 sell signal, and extended down sharply to probe its 74.15 confirmation that at least 73.00 is in-play so long as 74.15 is not recovered through a close.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Rotation complete. A flat to weaker open Monday eventually gained traction to rally sharply intraday, to within 20 cents of 1768.00 whose break Thursday had signaled momentum reversing down. If unfinished business below at 1715.00-1720.00 were eventually tested, it would now be unlikely to hold on the way down to 1685.00, and potentially 1668.00.

Silver Dec (SIZ) One last bounce, before one more plunge. Fresh highs at Monday’s open accompanied Gold’s flat to weaker open, reflecting more rotation. Both firmed or rallied in unison after the close, too. This brings the rotation one day closer to a broader peak among precious metals.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Getting used to double A. Friday’s ultimate recovery of Thursday’s suspicious 136’20 sell signal didn’t extend higher Monday. But neither did another sell-off attempt to renew the drop. The session ranged narrowly, and a close above 136’20 could now signal a retest of the 140’00 area.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Some benefit, but more doubt. Friday’s momentary strength didn’t extend higher much past the open, and not soon after Monday’s open. But Friday’s 87.37 high was eventually probed intraday up to 88.05. Perhaps the 90.00 corrective bounce target will be met first, prior to  another downleg that retests last week’s 78.25 and 75.71 lows.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Optimistic drop. Overnight weakness under 4.02-4.03 extended down into an opening test of 3.95. It wasn’t quite the 3.93 objective, but an afternoon surge retested 4.06. And 4.02-4.03 was still being tested at the open. The morning’s pessimism could have trapped buyers for another day’s recovery, but it was already neutralized by the afternoon’s optimism. The pattern is still forming.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Lulled into complacency. Friday’s open gapped down a little and extended down only a little more. Session lows held repeated tests of 74.55 support, whose break would have otherwise triggered a downleg to be confirmed under 74.15… Currencies happen to be a market that tends to duplicate Friday’s characteristics on Monday. That would be a neat trick in this headline-driven environment, considering how subdued Friday’s action was.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Not much fear for the weekend. Thursday’s reversal down from attacking 1818.00 was extended down to 1725.80. So long as 1744.50 holds as resistance, this downleg should touch at least 1715.00-1720.00, possibly also 1685.00, and potentially 1668.00. And that’s all just as a correction.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Rotation! Friday’s narrow range ended the day probing Thursday’s highs as resistance. An interesting juxtaposition to Gold’s sell-off. If this is rotation out of leadership and into laggards, then it is the second-to-last step before a comprehensive top. Another day of such divergence Monday would be appropriate. Anyway, the last step would find the Precious Metals complex rallying in unison. Otherwise, still looking at noise.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Saved by the closing bell. As suspected, Thursday’s close under 136’20 didn’t extend down Friday. But it wasn’t recovered by gapping up. Instead, the close back above 136’20 invalidated Thursday’s signal. This reinstates the potential to retest the 140’00 area – potentially up to 140’20 – so long as Thursday’s 135’00 low were not broken as support.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Better luck next time. Thursday’s late surge above the 83.25 signal was extended higher Friday morning. A little. And not for very long. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways, closing on its lows and in negative territory. It’s not optimal confirmation to Thursday’s trigger. Back under 83.25 would now trigger a sell signal targeting a retest of the 78.25 and 75.71 lows.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Wrong pedal, naturally. Rather than extend Thursday’s rally to test 4.20, Friday’s session retraced it down to 4.05. Dipping another 2-3 cents under 4.02-4.03 would target a retest of 3.93 support, and potentially also fill the gap back to last Monday’s 3.87 open.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…