Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Another head-fake. Thursday open gapped up. Like Wednesday’s gap down, the open probed a level whose recovery would signal extending in that direction. Wednesday it was a test of 74.15 support, and Thursday it was 74.93 resistance. But also like Wednesday’s gap down, the balance of Thursday morning trended in the opposite direction. And a final similarly: their afternoons both ranged essentially 74.55-74.93. A close beyond either end Friday would still trigger a new leg in that direction, targeting either 76.00 above, or 73.00 below.

Gold Dec (GCZ) A century mark too far? The trend’s next higher objective at 1818.00 was met Wednesday evening within 40 cents. It was all retraced back to Wednesday’s ~1787.00 close by Thursday’s open. The flat open soon resumed the overnight retracement’s momentum, and extended down to 1750.00 before the close, 1734.00 afterward. A second consecutive close under 1768.00 would confirm momentum reversing down, targeting 1715.00 and potentially 1668.00.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Bear-weather friends. Thursday’s inside day wasn’t very predictive. Which was itself predictive. The inside day undermines Wednesday’s bounce, which was itself “ineffectual optimism” that peaked upon filling the gap back to Monday’s close. A simultaneous surge along with Gold that reverses to close negative would signal a new downleg likely underway.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) 2 points is relatively nothing. Thursday’s auction was not well-received. What had been slight weakness down to 137’00 suddenly spiked down to 135’00. Closing under 136’20 would undermine the rally – a bounce to 136’20 was reversed back down to 135’00. A second consecutive close under 136’20 would signal the trend had reversed down already. Otherwise, recovering 136’20 Friday, probably by gapping up to or through it, would still likely retets Tuesday’s 139’27 high.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Late lift says much. Despite Wednesday’s “ineffectual optimism,” Thursday’s session largely ranged around 83.25, and then surged to 85.90. Unless the late surge were rejected immediately by gapping down Friday, the bounce to 90.25 is underway. Monday’s 78.25 low and Sunday night’s 75.71 low will still need to be tested, regardless. But the interim bounce suggests that their retest will form a durable bottom.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Striking a nerve? Thursday’s initial weakness touched Friday’s 3.94 low close just before the EIA report triggered a spike up to 4.14. That could suffice as a low, despite not filling the gap back to Monday’s 3,87 opening print. But confirmation would be helpful from a second consecutive higher close – preferably above 4.20.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Can’t count it out, so I’ll stop trying. Tuesday’s drop extended down overnight to probe 74.15, whose break on a closing basis would trigger the downleg next targeting 73.00. European bank issues enabled a surge up to 74.92. That still holds 74.93 as resistance, whose break on Monday – along with 75.14  – signaled the bounce had ended. Closing under 74.50 could now trigger a downleg. Closing above 75.15 would suggest another bounce leg underway, targeting 76.00.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Coasting on auto-pilot… and fumes? Monday and Tuesday’s two consecutive closes above the prior trading range had all but assured a third higher high. Wednesday’s test of 1801.00 produced it. So long as 1768.00 support were held on a closing basis, the trend can extend up to 1818.00. Any lower would trigger a bigger dip underway, and not necessarily a correction.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) According to my binoculars… Wednesday’s opening strength settled it – Tuesday’s post-close surge to 139’17 would need to be retested intraday. Wednesday was not that day, and the session high came with 1 point. Now, the trend remains up so long as 136’20 holds as support.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Step one of a bottom is to stop going down. Wednesday’s gap up avoided retesting Monday night’s 75.71 low. Tuesday’s ~82.85 highs were attacked, but not recovered – certainly not above 83.25 which would have triggered a bigger corrective bounce. It still may. But the low’s retest is likely until then.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Buyers not gaining traction. Monday’s shallow blip-down and Tuesday’s premature blip-up were followed by Wednesday’s bounce to 4.08. That should have been tested in any case. And it held. Extending higher Thursday morning to test 4.20 would be very likely to reverse down sharply on the EIA report. Otherwise, a bottom needs another recovery from a fresh low.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Sellers dipped a toe in the water. Tuesday’s gap down ranged sideways through the day. A blip-down to 74.33 on the afternoon’s FOMC announcement was recovered back into the range. It also recovered back above the morning’s low. But it did not recover into positive territory, so the entire session traded negative, after gapping down. That was nearly “ineffectual pessimism,” and it could launch a new rally leg if Wednesday’s session doesn’t resume the decline without delay, closing under 74.15.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Euphoric, yet? Another big gap up Tuesday to 1753.50 reversed down instead of testing the 1782.50 overnight high. The reversal down came within $1 of touching Monday’s 1721.9 high before reversing to attack the 1753.50 open before the close. Post-close action attacked the 1782.50 overnight high up to 1780.90. Being the second consecutive fresh high close, at least a third intraday high is now likely before a durable downleg could begin. So, any interim dip should be recovered.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Maybe the US is a takeover target. Fresh highs surged to and through the next higher objective at 136’16, to attack 138’00. A post-close surge nearly touched 140’00, before settling back to the 137’00 area. Gapping open Wednesday under 135’05 could trigger a downleg without leaving any unfinished business above. Just closing under 135’05 would at least allow a corrective decline, but not without requiring its eventual recovery.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Not exactly gushing. New lows overnight tested 78.95 support down to 75.71. Its reaction intraday tested 83.00. An intraday test of  75.71 that closes back above 78.95 would form a credible bottom. Just closing above 83.25 would at least trigger a bounce targeting 90.00.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Still too little, still too soon. Monday’s shallow dip was only noise, despite recovering from a new low. The recovery followed-through Tuesday, but it was no more relevant than Monday. Closing above 4.07 would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher. Otherwise, another dip under 4.90 is likely.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Reserved currency. The initial reaction to weekend news took price back down sharply overnight to 74.15. Closing any lower would have triggered a new downleg underway, but its test instead produced a bounce back to 75.21. That was a 61.8% retracement of the drop from Thursday’s high, natural resistance, so the balance of the session settled back under 74.93 to confirm Friday’s signal that buyers had lost traction. Now a fresh close under 74.70 could trigger a downleg targeting 73.00.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Amazing… if confirmed. A decline never was attempted, let alone triggered under 1644.50, before weekend developments triggered new highs up to 1723.40. The open’s gap up to new highs allows a pullback to recover from 1676.00. But gapping down under 1676.00 would gain traction for a downleg. Otherwise, the trend now has potential up to 1779.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) They always find a way. The overnight reaction to weekend development’s bottomed 5 ticks short of a full point at 131’11. A flight-to-quality helped to reverse price up, fulfilling the required retest of Friday’s 135’05 high up to 135’16. That could have been delayed by dipping first to 129’00, which should still be tested. Closing under 134’26 would signal at least a correction underway targeting 133’00 and 129’00. Otherwise, while closing above 135’10 would be positive, I have no higher calculable targets, other than there being potential for extending up to 136’16.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Getting ready for a hard landing. Gapping down Monday to attack Thursday night’s 82.87 low took all session before finally breaking down to 80.17. A bounce has room up to 84.25 without a rally gaining traction. Meanwhile, the next lower calculable target is 78.95.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Too little, too early. A shallow blip-down intraday Monday was just as quickly recovered back to unchanged levels. This does not equate to defending the low from a sell-off attempt, so no durable rally is yet expected.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Back to business, and business ain’t good. Thursday’s test of resistance at 75.48 was probed overnight, but didn’t gain traction. Thursday’s 74.90 low was probed intraday, and did. The false break’s The session’s 74.68 low stopped optimistically short of filling the nearest outstanding gap below. This both confirms the recent rally leg has been only a correction, and also that it has ended. Still, there is room down to 74.15 before signaling the downleg targeting 73.00 has resumed.

Gold Dec (GCZ) That which doesn’t kill it? Thursday’s rejection of new highs had gotten ahead of itself, so another bounce needed to test 1669.40 before a downleg could gain traction. It was tested overnight and retested intraday. The tests’ rejection barely avoided reversing momentum down, by managing to close above 1651.00. Any close under Thursday’s 1642.20 low would signal a new downleg underway. And now that the 1169.40 has been tested, any delay in triggering a new downleg could repeat this week’s earlier surge from having held 1620.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Able to leap almost every tall building. Closing above Thursday’s 133’12 close would have targeted 135’10. It was nearly fulfilled overnight anyway to within 5 ticks. That just created more room to absorb a negative reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report, even after dipping back toward 133’12 ahead of the news. But the race is on between retesting 135’05 up to 135’10, before retracing down to 129’00.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) The same, but more of it. Thursday’s low was probed by more than $3 to 82.87 overnight. A bounce to 88.32 was retraced intraday down to 84.35. The session ultimately closed positive, and above the decline’s extended 85.95 objective. Very extended. Closing back above 90.35 – without leaving outstanding a gap below – would signal momentum reversing up. Otherwise, the trend remains down, but still capable of forming a bottom so long as this current downleg were to contain the low.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Holding its own. Thursday’s lows did not extend Friday, and neither were they corrected. Interesting action that suggests the next trending attempt will be false, whether up to 4.07 or down to 3.81.

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