Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Not buying it. Wednesday’s ineffectual pessimism was recovered by gapping up sharply Thursday. Its initial objective at 75.48 was attacked into the afternoon. Its next higher objective at 76.05 is in-play, too, so long as pullbacks hold 75.15. Regardless, this is not a durable rally, and the decline’s eventual resumption will still target 73.00.

Gold Dec (GCZ) New highs. Quickly, take a picture. Thursday’s session followed the bearish path of probing Tuesday’s post-close ~1676.00 high (up to ~1685.00), and then reversing down to close negative (under ~1662.00). The downleg actually filled the gap back to Tuesday’s ~1645.00 close, which held, robbing sellers of their traction. While a bearish top is forming, a retest and rejection of 1669.40 should occur before momentum can reverse down sustainably.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Size doesn’t matter, 1. Enabled by a flight-to-safety, the rally that was signaled at 125’28 added more than 2 points Thursday to test 133’12. Closing any higher would put into play 134’18, and potentially 135’10. Post-close buying extended up thus far to 134’08, which is not a close. Friday’s Employment Situation report might initially extend the rally, but a pullback to the 129’00 area is increasingly likely.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Size doesn’t matter, 2. The downleg targeting a probe under 92.00 extended down $5.50 Thursday through its next lower object at 89.35 to new lows  at 86.04. Despite the extension, this leg could still suffice as the long-awaited final downleg to complete a bottom. Closing above 89.40 would signal that momentum was reversing up, at least to test 93.00.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Old lows give way to new lows. Tuesday’s shallow attempt at new lows had reflected too much optimism for a bottom, and Wednesday’s drop back to prior lows at 4.07 confirmed. Thursday’s reaction to EIA plunged to 3.91. A corrective bounce has room up to 4.03 (which is almost a target at this stage of the pattern) before sellers begin losing traction. The next lower objective is 3.70.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Almost sitting this one out. The premature rally was rejected again Wednesday, by gapping down back under Tuesday’s lows. The balance of the session only ranged sideways, and repeatedly held tests of 74.15 support, whose break would resume the decline.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Sky’s the limit. Limit met. Tuesday’s post-close new highs at 1675.90 did not extend higher overnight or Wednesday. In fact, Wednesday’s high was 1674.60. An Island reversal would form from gapping down Thursday under 1643.50. But the rally remains intact without a close under 1652.00, now having potential  to 1696.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) No rating cut. We get it, already. Wednesday’s 132’08 tested the rally’s 132’04 target, then dipped under the prior day’s highs. Closing Thursday under Wednesday afternoon’s 130’26 low – after probing Wednesday’s high up to 132’12 – would be likely to react down sharply on Friday’s Employment Situation report. Just closing Thursday without yet correcting to at least 129’12 would be vulnerable to finding any good news already discounted fully.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Room for a bottom, but not necessarily time. Thursday’s low probed well under the 92.00 objective. This would suffice to form a durable bottom, with momentum reversing up on a close above 93.35. Otherwise, closing under 91.30 would next target 89.15.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Position of weakness. Wednesday finally printed a fresh low, but it wasn’t recovered to form a bottom. Instead, it spiked down to test July’s 4.07 low. Its precise low. Hesitating here suggests buyers are impatient, which suggests that any favorable reaction to Thursday’s EIA report would be a short-entry opportunity.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes... Also, Tuesday’s Market Wrap recording link was incorrect. It can be played here.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Like moths to a flame? The premature bounce extended to fresh highs at 74.91 Tuesday morning. But the 74.55-74.60 prior highs were still being tested through the afternoon.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Back to square-one. Friday’s close above the 1622.00 buy signal wasn’t confirmed Monday by a higher close. Tuesday’s open gapped up anyway, above Friday’s 1637.50 prior high, and extended higher to attack the breakout’s 1652.00 target intraday up to 1646.80, and after the close up to 1664.50. Closing Wednesday above 1652.00 would put into play the next higher targets at 1682.00 and 1699.00. Closing under 1627.00 would reverse momentum down sharply.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Goodbye default, hello Employment reports. The 125’28 breakout has yet to correct, and barely consolidated Monday. But its 130’08 target was met Tuesday. And exceeded, up to 131’04. There is potential to higher targets at 132’04 and 132’18, so long as pullbacks now hold 129’12 as support. But that’s not very close to present levels, especially for a rally leg that has gained over 5 points in as four days. Especially ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Inching down to a big support. Tuesday’s lower close once again extended the drop underway from last week’s probe above 100.00. And Tuesday’s close once again barely extended under the prior day’s low. Monday’s 93.42 low had recovered to close above 95.00. Tuesday’s multi-dollar dip to 93.20 expended a lot of selling pressure with nominal effect. Regardless, this leg’s long-standing objective has been to probe under 91.00. Simply probing under 92.00 could suffice for completing a major bottom.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Skipping a bottom. Tuesday’s retest of Friday’s low was not deep enough to earn confidence that a bottom is in. Closing Wednesday above 4.20 would suffice. Otherwise, a probe under 4.12 that closes back above 4.15 would help to trap shorts ahead of Thursday’s EIA report.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Dollar stakes out both sides. Monday’s 73.75 low was recovered to close back above 74.15. Closing under 74.15 Friday had signaled the decline’s resumption. Touching 73.75 did not end fulfill it. Unless the decline were extending down obviously on Tuesday, then sellers will have lost traction – at least to delay the decline until another distribution pattern could form.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Buy signal not confirmed. Friday’s close above 1620.00 had put into play 1650.00. The signal needed confirmation from a second consecutive higher close. Monday’s reaction to the weekend’s debt deal triggered a gap down back under 1620.00, which was still being tested through the close. Without the buy signal’s immediate confirmation, a pullback has room down to 1602.00-1603.00 before a bigger downleg could gain traction.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Lifting another ceiling. A wobbly start to the debt deal’s reaction was recovered to extend the rally that triggered Thursday above 125’28. The 129’00 resistance was tested, the only calculable resistance to fulfilling the 130’08 target. Despite testing resistance up to 129’09, 129’00 was still being tested at the close. Pullbacks must now hold 128’06 as support to maintain the rally’s momentum.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Lightning fast. The 97.35 sell signal finally broke lower Friday, but didn’t extend intraday, further suggesting that sellers were not gaining traction for their efforts. Monday’s opening strength was appropriate, gapping up back above 97.35 and extending higher to 98.60. Without waiting for Tuesday, the corrective bounce already ended, and slid intraday down to 93.60. The pit close was under Friday’s low, to give the decline a benefit of the doubt. But post-close action tried to recover into Friday’s range. Closing above 97.35 could become bullish.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) A little too soon to bottom. Monday’s gap up was an impatient rally attempt, leaving outstanding the gap back to Friday’s close. A dip did fill the gap, which held as support. Recovering from a fresh low Tuesday to close positive would rob sellers of their traction, and avoid extending the decline to fresh lows.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Back in the hole. The reaction up from Tuesday’s new low was doomed to failure. Friday’s drop under 74.15 signaled the decline has resumed. And so long as 74.15  is not recovered, the decline’s next objective is to test Tuesday’s lows down to 73.60-73.65, before extending down to 73.00 (+/- 0.05).

Gold Aug (GCQ) Out of the soup? Having finally worked off its excessive optimism, the pattern became free to launch its next trending leg. Thursday’s low under 1603.00 wasn’t even attacked to try signaling a downleg underway. But 1620.00 resistance was recovered, putting into play 1650.00. A second higher consecutive close on Monday would confirm, which isn’t usual for a Friday breakout.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Procrastinators gets it done, too. Thursday’s opening break above the 125’28 buy signal never really extended higher all day. Friday’s session compensated for the delay by surging to the 127’24 target, and through it to 128’05 intraday and then to 128’18. Closing above 128’06 Monday would signal the upleg extending to 130’08, with resistance along the way at 129’00.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Gift horse. The delayed break under 97.35 had made one more refueling bounce likely. But Friday’s open broke lower, anyway, and extended down intraday to 94.95. But even that is suspicious, since all deterioration after the open was maintained through the close. The decline gets a benefit of the doubt, but it should also get a very tight stop.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Point of no return. The decline persisted Friday down to 4.14, despite Thursday’s low having filled and held an outstanding gap below. A retracement back to the last rally’s 4.07 origin is unavoidable, except for a close above 4.30 that would signal momentum reversing up.

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