Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Too little, too soon. Wednesday’s gap up had peaked upon filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close. This natural resistance didn’t offer a good base for the overnight attempt to extend higher, so Thursday’s opening gap up was retraced. The gap below at Tuesday’s close can now attract price back down, whether to hold a test of Tuesday’s lows, or to resume the decline targeting 73.00 (+/- 0.05).

Gold Aug (GCQ) Any optimists left? Yet another opening surge above 1620.00 was retraced into negative territory, this time nearly filling the gap back to Friday’s close under 1603.00. Excessive optimism prevented it from being filled before bouncing into the close. Closing under 1602.00 would now signal a new downleg underway. Closing above 1620.00 would be bullish, possibly extending up to 1650.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Size doesn’t matter. Despite probing the 125’28 buy signal immediately Thursday, the balance of the session essentially ranged narrowly just above 126’00. That doesn’t undermine the quality of the breakout, except to make it easier to reject by closing back under 125’28 Friday. Otherwise, extending higher would confirm 127’24 is in-play.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Taking a little too long to get short. Wednesday’s dip back to the 97’35 sell signal was probed occasionally intraday Thursday, but never broke lower. An actual break lower would now be credible following another momentary blip-up. Breaking lower immediately Friday would be as credible as it is forcible – dipping only slightly at this stage probably won’t gain traction like it could have Wednesday or Thursday.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Punishing weakness. Not greeting Thursday’s EIA report from above 4.42-4.43 left the pattern vulnerable. Its negative reaction plunged to 4.23, filling another outstanding gap below. Now a close above 4.30 would be bullish. There is otherwise no buy signal.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) The decline got ahead of itself. Tuesday break under the decline’s 74.15 target was valid, but it was not confirmed by a lower close Wednesday. Wednesday bounced to fill the gap back up to Monday’s close – its attraction above has now been neutralized. And now the gap back down to Tuesday’s  close is an attraction below. Perhaps a bottom is forming, which would avoid actually touching the decline’s next target at 73.00. But Wednesday’s bounce is not likely to extend higher before retesting Monday’s 73.60-73.65 lows.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Proof of excessive optimism. Wednesday’s session almost did everything that a top needed to do. Sunday night’s 1624.30 high was probed intraday, and the probe was rejected back to prior lows. But the rejection stopped short of actually closing under prior lows. Optimism remains too excessive to extend the rally. But a new downleg can’t be signaled before closing back under 1605.50.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) No panic. Yet. Still no close above 125’28, so no rally targeting 127’24 has been triggered. But sellers aren’t gaining any traction either, despite their recent sporadic efforts, and despite having headlines in their favor.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) One step away from a tumble. Wednesday’s open gapped down and quickly broke under 98.35 to the 97.35 support. There was no bullish reason to revisit it. Just returning down to 97.35 confirms the probing above has been distributive. Closing any lower would signal a downleg underway. Breaking under 97.35 would be entirely credible for extending down to probe under 91.00.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Missed opportunity for strength. While Wednesday’s session didn’t extend Tuesday’s “ineffectual pessimism,” it also didn’t exploit it with a rally. So, Thursday’s EIA report won’t be greeted from a bullish posture above 4.42-4.43. Oh, well. We’ll look at any pre-report extreme sentiment – which tends to be contrary – and at the reaction to the report, for an opportunity.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) The bottom drops out. Overnight weakness stumbled through 74.15 (which, by the way, has yet to be touched intraday) down to 73.60, targeting 73.00 (+/- 0.05). The gap back up to Monday’s 74.25 close will need to be filled at some point, but its test would likely be a short-entry opportunity.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Nothing but gold bugs here. Extreme optimism at Sunday night’s open left no room to extend higher. Excessive optimism at Monday’s lows helped the pullback to narrowly avoid touching last week’s highs as support. A decline can’t gain traction from a consolidation above prior highs. An intraday probe above 1320.00 that closes under 1307.00 would signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) If not fo all this default talk… Monday’s close under 125’10 was rejected like Thursday’s – not by gapping up, but by rallying intraday to retest 125’28. Closing above it would still put into play 127’24. Just holding it as resistance into the close keeps the pattern vulnerable to yet another sell-off attempt.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Probing higher, without gaining traction. The extended consolidation above 97.35 without extending higher does not make a reversal down less likely. But it does make a false break higher likely first. Tuesday’s open dip to 97.76 was recovered to fresh highs at 100.62, before reversing to close back under prior highs. Now a close under 98.95 would signal a new downleg underway. Otherwise, the next higher resistance is 101.55.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Trying to dump sellers before EIA day. Tuesday’s gap down probed a new relative low, and spent the entire session in negative territory. But the prior session’s low held as support through the close. This is “ineffectual pessimism.” It is not a buy signal, but almost any immediate strength Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Remarkably calm… before the storm? Monday’s inside day neither extended Friday’s premature recovery attempt, nor tested the decline’s 74.15 target. Its test intraday is all but required for forming a durable bottom. Closing under it would suggest the decline was extending.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Up, in lieu of down. Despite no accumulation pattern, the weekend’s news triggered sharply higher prices overnight. Monday’s open did not retest the 1624.30 overnight high. And the intraday low stopped short of touching last week’s 1608.00 prior highs as support. Closing under 1604.00 would trigger a bigger downleg underway. Closes should meanwhile hold under 1620.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Another sell signal, still suspicious. Monday’s gap down under 125’10 undid Friday’s recovery back above 125’20. An intraday recovery into positive territory above 126’00 was not maintained, so 125’28 was not recovered to trigger an upleg. Closing back under 125’10 has once again signaled momentum reversing down. A second consecutive lower close would confirm. Closing above 125’28 would still out into play 127’24.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Not exactly surging past resistance. Friday’s inside day met a smaller inside day Monday. Its gap down did not extend down. The gap back to Friday’s close was filled, neutralizing its attraction above. Almost any intraday probe Tuesday beyond Monday’s 98.52-99.77 intraday range would likely fail and reverse more substantially in the opposite direction.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Trying to absorb sellers. Another rally effort was reversed back down under the prior session’s lows Monday. Extending the morning’s 4.43 high any higher would have triggered a rally leg. Holding a test of 4.35 prior lows could work, too. Regardless of its path, the more credible rally would be obvious by Tuesday afternoon, instead of later.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Target met, an opportunity to bottom. Thursday night’s low touched the 74.15 target, put into play when the rally into Monday failed to hold 75.85. An intraday test of 74.15 would help to form a durable bottom upon closing back above 74.75. Closing under 74.15 would suggest the decline is extending.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Ineffectual optimism. Friday’s open gapped up to reject Thursday’s close under 1593.50 and 1588.50. But no accumulation pattern had yet formed. And now there is a gap back down to Thursday’s 1586.70 close outstanding. Closing under 1592.50 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 1588.50.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Walking on eggshells. Suspicion about Thursday’s drop to 124’28 proved warranted, as Friday’s open gapped up above 125’10 and extended higher to test 125’28. A close above 125’28 is still required to signal a move targeting 127’24 is underway. Perhaps anxiousness ahead of the weekend’s debt impasse prevented 125’28 from being recovered. Closing again under 125’10 would be bearish.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Pushing the edge of the bearish envelope. Friday’s recovery back up to Thursday’s highs was really just noise in the range. Thursday afternoon’s drop had fallen back under prior highs, offering natural support for a bounce. Steep trending is likely to follow another sideways day Monday. A close under 97.35 at any time would signal a downleg underway. Meanwhile, the pattern may continue probing higher highs intraday.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Taking care of loose ends. Friday’s gap up was a little too optimistic, although Thursday’s low had filled an outstanding gap below. The gap back to Thursday’s close was soon filled, and held as support through the close. Back above 4.44 would be credible for extending higher intraday. Closing under 4.35 would make another rally leg difficult.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…