Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Fighting head winds to stay on course. Wild overnight and intraday gyrations did not prevent the decline from attacking its 74.15 target to within 15 cents, which was triggered by Monday’s failure to close above 75.85. The target remains intact so long as bounces now hold any test of 74.65 as resistance. That can be tricky in this news environment.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Quicksand top. Recovering from Tuesday’s 1588.50-1593.50 pullback limit’s test never formed a new accumulation pattern that could resume the rally. Retracing to the pullback’s 1602.00 origin has triggered a dip back down to 1585.00. Closing under 1588.50 would put into play 1575.00, whose break would trigger a new downleg.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) This should be bearish, but… Debt deal news items played ping pong from Wednesday’s close into Thursday afternoon, taking price along for a straight ride down. Although 125’10 was broken through the close, the close was also still in the process of testing recent lows, after filling the most recent gap back down to 124’28. It is bearish price action, and a second consecutive lower close would confirm a downleg is underway. Until then, one more temporary rally up to 127’24 is still possible before failing.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) The reluctant rally. Probes and consolidations above 97.35 resistance up to 99.35 weren’t considered breakouts because buyers never gained traction. Nevertheless, Wednesday night’s pullback to 96.90 produced a rally that probed 100.00 Thursday. Yet again, its close back under prior highs meant buyers didn’t gain traction. A rally could still extend higher, but not with any predictable path or velocity. And a close under 97.35 would signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) One more opportunity to rally. Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction up to 4.56 reacted down sharply to 4.34 on EIA news. That actually fills an outstanding gap. Closing above 4.42 would be credible for extending higher, but an interim dip down to 4.30 would be appropriate, first. Closing under 4.29 would suggest a bigger downleg underway.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Still unwinding the optimism. Wednesday’s open gapped under Tuesday’s lows, which was also under the prior week’s lows, to the lowest levels in nearly three weeks. Just avoiding a close above 75.30 would maintain the decline’s momentum targeting 74.15.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Warning shot across the bow. Tuesday’s post-close dive was maintained overnight, but not much into Wednesday’s session, which retraced back up to 1602.00. The bounce now allows a close under 1592.50 to signal a new downleg underway. Alternatively, a fresh high above 1611.00 that closes negative Wednesday would seal a top.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Defensive posturing ahead of big calendar. Tuesday’s post-close probe above 127’00 wasn’t repeated Wednesday. But the session low held a test of 125’28, and the rally didn’t lose any traction, so 127’24 remains in-play.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Can another downleg even be attempted? The probe above 97.35 resistance was extended through Wednesday, without any accumulation. Closing under 97.35 would still signal a new downleg underway.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) False start. An optimistic start Wednesday was reversed into negative territory. The open’s gap up was not a new high, so it doesn’t require being filled. But the intraday low did hold a test of 4.40 to maintain the rally’s momentum. But it has gotten very late to suddenly appear.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Island gap has downside objectives. Monday’s more thorough test of corrective bounce limits was compensated for Tuesday, by gapping down sharply. A late bounce did not recover back above any relevant support. A downleg targeting 74.15 is underway so long as bounces now hold 75.75.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Vulnerability becomes clear after the close. Monday’s breakout from the two-day consolidation tried extending higher overnight to 1610.70, only to settle back to unchanged intraday as the rally’s momentum waned. A post-close slide pierced 1588.50-1592.50 to put into play a test of 1578.50. Closing any lower would signal a new downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Absorbing sellers has its rewards. Yet another dip under 125’10 was recovered back above 125’20, this time overnight. And the recovery didn’t wait until the close before proving that sellers have been absorbed. Holding 125’28 as support on a closing basis would now maintain potential to the 127’24 target.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Rolling coverage to Sep. A gap up above the 97.35 (97.00 basis Aug) intraday bounce limit also tested 99.00 intraday. The afternoon’s fresh high was retraced to back under the morning’s high, after gapping up, in a day spent exclusively in positive territory – this is “ineffectual optimism.” Extending the rally any further all but depends upon gapping up Wednesday. Otherwise, the session would be likely to resolve down, possibly sharply sharply, which would resume the downleg.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Rolling coverage to Sep. Monday’s fresh high had not extended higher, but at least it had prevented sellers from gaining traction. And they didn’t gain traction Tuesday, either. But the rally does need to extend higher Wednesday’s morning to avoid losing momentum.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Thankful to its opposition. Despite Friday holding its 75.75 bounce limit, weaker currencies promoted the Dollar to higher highs Monday that tested the 75.85-76.00 bounce limit. This test of resistance held, too, reversing to close back under 75.85. Back above 76.00 would signal yet another corrective bounce target in-play at 76.65. Closing above 76.85 would negate the pattern’s last opportunity for launching a bigger downleg targeting 74.15.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Stage-one to a false break resembles a real one. The 1604.50-1606.00 objective was tested Monday. It was still being tested into the close and not rejected. A pullback has room down to 1588.50-1592.50 as just a correction, but closing any lower would target 1578.50, whose break would trigger new downleg underway. Otherwise, the next higher objective is above 1620.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Patient buyers are bordering on comatose. Closing back above 125’28 Friday suggested the intraday dip under 125’20 and 125’10 was a false break. This maintained potential for extending the rally up to 127’24, but the open’s gap up was reversed to retest 125’10–125’20 as support. At least 125’20 was still being tested at the close. Quickly recovering 125’28 Tuesday morning would be likely to extend higher almost relentless to test 127’24.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Perhaps the last chance for a downleg. Friday’s test of 97.00 resistance resolved down immediately and forcibly, testing 94.70 intraday. Closing under 94.25 continues to be the ultimate sell signal. Meanwhile, the pattern is consolidating for a sizable move, which could be up just as easily upon closing above 97.30.

Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) At least sellers were shut-out. Monday’s tendency to duplicate NG’s characteristics from Friday made a rally to fresh highs likely. A rally to fresh highs did test 4.61, but closed almost flat on the day. Another upleg should be launched from just under 4.50 to be credible.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) All packed up and ready to move. Bounce potential up to 75.75 defined Friday’s high. Potential up to 75.85-75.90 is diminished, but still likely to hold as resistance if tested. Dipping under 75.05 would now signal the downleg having resumed, confirmed under 74.90, and targeting 74.15.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Has the music stopped? Friday’s inside day was not surprising after three consecutive up days had resolved all unfinished business above. Trying to resume the rally Monday above 1595.00 would be suspicious, and likely to reverse down to probe under 1579.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Rallies are difficult without Big Brother. Thursday’s inside day didn’t prevent weakness Friday. But it recovered from 125’10, back above 125’20, and back into the range above 126’00. Potential up to 127’24 remains alive.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) No more delay if going down. Friday’s opening bounce retraced a lot of Thursday’s drop, including 97.00. But the balance of the session only ranged around 97.00, and closed under the morning’s high. Sliding through Monday’s open would confirm that its bounce limit had held, and that a test under 91.00 or 88.75 was in-play.

Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) Step one for a breakout: breakout. Early strength above 4.42 was expected to trend sharply higher intraday Friday. In fact, the intraday rally reached 4.55. It is next targeting 4.75-4.80, so long as 4.45 were to hold as support. Its test Monday is possible because Mondays in this market tend to duplicate Friday’s characteristics.

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