Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Optimism not so excessive anymore. Overnight lows tested 75.00 to retrace the doomed breakout rally back to its origin. A bounce into mid-morning turned positive up to 75.64, which was still being tested at the close. A bounce still has room up to 75.75, perhaps up to 75.85-76.00, before resuming the decline to its 74.15 objective.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Music slowing, and one chair missing. Thursday’s third consecutive higher close was the first not to extend higher after the pit close. Now all post-close higher highs have been tested intraday. The rally’s next higher objective is 1604.50-1606.00, so long as 1578.50 were to hold any pullback as support. Closing under 1568.50 would trigger a new downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Ducking the bullets for a day. Thursday’s close was in the process of testing 125’28 support, without having improved Wednesday’s intraday recovery. The muted reaction to three pre-open reports would have been bearish had it included a failed probe above a prior high, but the session was instead an inside day. The pattern is not attractive for trading, but its 127’24 objective remains outstanding so long as 125’20 holds as support.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) This could leave a mark. Thursday’s steep slide reacted down sharply from Wednesday having filled the gap back to last Thursday’s Island at 98.46. Closing under 96.90 would have sufficed to signal momentum reversing down – the session low was 94.53. Closing under 94.25 would confirm a probe underway of 91.00, potentially down to 88.75.

Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) Another opportunity to rally. Thursday’s session was interesting not just for absorbing a steep intraday dip down to 4.25 and recovering back to almost 4.40, but for patiently hovering into the close just under positive territory. Firming above 4.42 could seal a bottom and trigger a rally sharply leg through Monday.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Imagine what sellers could do with traction. Buyers had lost traction Tuesday after rallying to the 77.10 objective. But sellers didn’t gain traction. Last week’s rally was built on excessive optimism, but a pullback could have been contained to 75.85-75.90. It wasn’t. Wednesday’s session tumbled on Bernanke’s testimony – in which he did not back away from QE3 talk – back to Friday afternoon’s 75.40 low. Bounces should now hold 75.75 on the way down to 74.15.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Not too shabby, considering it’s not really money. Effects from Bernanke’s QE3 talk had legs, and helped Gold to extend its surge into new highs Wednesday. Tuesday’s rally had extended higher after the pit close, and so did Wednesday, attacking 1589.00. This is the second consecutive higher close, which requires at least one more higher high. Indications of weakness upon testing 1589.00 would suggest the higher high had held.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Waiting for 1:00. Two consecutive closes above 125’28 had confirmed 127’24 was in-play. The setup also helped to recover from Wednesday’s early weakness that tested 125’28 as support. A very busy calendar – including a 30-year auction – all but assure a volatile day Thursday.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Buyers shooting themselves in the foot(s). The Dollar and the EIA report helped to improve Crude Oil through its 97.00 bounce limit Wednesday. Session highs at 99.21 filled the 98.46 gap back to Thursday’s Island. Closing above 99.00 would confirm a new upleg underway. Meanwhile, there is potential for Tuesday and Wednesday’s bounce to have formed a Double Top, which would be triggered by closing back under 96.90, targeting a probe under 91.00.

Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) This resistance test should be different. Despite not clearly recovering 4.30 in a timely manner, Wednesday gapped up to test 4.40. Its resolution wasn’t likely to be much different than at 4.30. In fact, 4.40 was still being tested as resistance through the close. Now there are two gaps outstanding below (~4.30 and ~4.20) to inhibit a rally effort. Let’s see how EIA’s weekly inventory report is negotiated.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Time to pause. After testing its 77.10 objective overnight, a reversal back into negative territory also probed Monday’s lows, robbing buyers of their traction. The session closed while still in the process of testing Monday’s lows, so sellers did not gain traction. A pullback could recover from testing 75.85-75.90, but closing any lower would target 74.15.

Gold Aug (GCQ) In a world of its own. Rallying strongly back to and through prior highs has given the pattern a chance to extend much high, unless not confirmed by a second consecutive higher close on Wednesday.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Safe port in a storm. A flight-to-quality extended the rally further past 125’28 to probe prior highs up to 127’15. A probe above Tuesday’s highs is likely up to 127’24. A new upleg is possible, but not signaled.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) One more chance to refuel. Overnight lows down to 93.55 were recovered to test the 97.00 bounce target into Tuesday’s close. A downleg targeting under 91.00 should be underway by Wednesday’s close. Otherwise, extending higher would suggest that a much larger rally was already underway, and that 91.00 would not be tested first.

Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) Grinding out a bottom. Monday’s gap up probed 4.30, but didn’t close above it to trigger a rally. Tuesday’s close above 4.30 also probed Monday’s high, which held as resistance. The gap back down to 4.20 is likely to be filled, which would form a more compelling bottom than simply extending higher to close above 4.40.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Supporting excessive optimism. Monday’s open gapped up much more substantially than the rally’s two prior gaps up. The 75.85-75.90 target was exceeded, never touched intraday. But in a sign that too much buying pressure was expended too soon, the open’s gap up was never extended higher intraday, either. Avoiding a close under 75.85-75.90 Tuesday would allow the rally to extend higher, next targeting 77.10 and potentially 77.60.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Stuck up. Friday’s test of 1540.00 wasn’t rejected in time to reverse momentum down. Much higher highs up to 1557.00 were largely retraced, but only down to 1542.00 intraday to fill the open’s gap. Closing under 1540.00 would now signal a new downleg underway. Meanwhile, the alternative is probe fresh highs above 1560.00, probably without gaining traction, while awaiting a downleg to begin.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) A big bounce, for a bounce. Monday’s flight-to quality (how quaint) extended Friday’s bounce through its next resistance to 125’28, and higher. Closing above 125’28 signaled that the last downleg has been fully absorbed, putting into play new highs at 127’24. A second consecutive higher close – preferably above 126’18 – must still confirm. A new downleg would be signaled by closing back under 125’10 – preferably Tuesday.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Still paying the price of impatience. Last week’s unconfirmed rally that tried extending higher continued to unwind on Monday. The original 94.25 sell signal was tested intraday without recovering back above 95.50. This may be equilibrium, which would allow a temporary bounce Tuesday up to 97.00. Otherwise, the drop underway has potential to probe under 91.00.

Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) Too much, too late. Monday’s open gapped up to test 4.30, whose recovery through the close would have signaled momentum reversing up. But 4.30 held through the close. Gapping up Tuesday above 4.40 would offer another opportunity to rally. Otherwise, filling the gap back down to Friday’s 4.20 close and then closing positive above 4.30 would trigger a rally.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Excessive this optimism is not a sell signal. Thursday’s reversal into negative territory was still clinging to Wednesday’s lows. This prevented sellers from gaining traction and preserved the corrective bounce’s potential to 75.85-75.90. It also didn’t prevent Friday’s open from gapping up. This second consecutive gap up was also reversed into negative territory – testing Thursday’s lows – but closed positive. The corrective bounce’s momentum remains alive so long as 75.30 holds as support on a closing basis.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Sellers stretched to the max, and ready to snap back. Friday’s surge confirmed that Thursday’s relatively narrow range had not deprecated the corrective bounce’s momentum. The surge’s 1546.00 high was consolidated back down to 1540.00 through the close. Back under 1537.00 would signal momentum reversing down, probably very aggressively if valid. Otherwise, the bounce could extend to probe prior highs above 1560.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Bigger slide delayed, not averted. Avoiding a negative reaction to Employment Situation report allowed Friday’s session to bounce. Its 124’18 bounce target was probed up to 125’00, and could extend up to 125’12. Regardless, this action is still considered to be only a corrective bounce.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) False break, after all. Thursday’s gap up came after Wednesday’s failure to confirm Tuesday’s gap up. Thursday’s close reflected no net gain from the open’s gap up, despite probing fresh highs intraday. The excessive optimism had lost traction. Friday’s gap down easily extended down intraday to within 1 tick of 95.50. Closing under 94.25 would still trigger a test of 91.00, which could form a durable bottom.

Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) Raising the bar. Friday’s rally back to stopped short of recovering 4.25, which would have helped to seal a bottom. Prior lows at 4.19-4.20 were still being tested as resistance, buying some time for closing Monday above 4.30 to signal momentum reversing up. No bottom or recovery is signaled otherwise.

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