Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Careful what you ask for. Thursday’s gap up was appropriate for the excessive optimism that Wednesday’s gap up exploited. Thursday’s post-open reversal back into negative territory – and under Wednesday’s lows – was appropriate for a rally’s weak-handed sponsorship. Thursday’s close was still consolidating at or under Wednesday’s lows, so the next higher high (if there is one, presumably testing 75.85-75.90) should produce a downleg targeting 74.15.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Feeling left out. Thursday’s relatively narrow range was interrupted by a momentary spike down to the 1522.00 area. That doesn’t undermine the bounce’s momentum. But any weakness upon testing a fresh high in the 1540.00 area would become vulnerable to reversing down sharply.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Denial is making matters worse. Extended ranging around 122’28-123’12 had not only failed to extend higher, but it also produced a gap down Thursday. The gap down didn’t extend lower, but neither was it recovered, as ranging continued around 122’28-123’12. An negative reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report could plunge under 121’00. Avoiding a negative reaction through Friday’s close would be bullish for a bigger corrective bounce.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Too much, too late. Wednesday had not provided a second consecutive higher close to confirm Tuesday’s breakout close above 95.50. Thursday’s open nevertheless gapped up to a new recovery high at 99.42. Despite so much momentum, there was no net improvement from the opening print. Not first dipping under 91.00 before rallying – or rallying too late – is still vulnerable to being excessive optimism, and not a new durable upleg, that could peak at 100.50.

Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) To stand still is to fall behind. Repeatedly refusing to probe 4.40 resistance has resulted in a probe of new lows down to 4.07. A new low had become the likely consequence to further delaying a new rally leg. Closing back above prior lows Thursday could have robbed sellers of their traction. Having failed that, closing Friday back above 4.25 would be needed to form a two-day pattern signaling momentum reversing up.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Patience is a… too late. Wednesday’s rally came without first probing a fresh low under 74.55. And Tuesday’s dip stopped short of actually filling the gap back to Friday’s close. Gapping up Wednesday only increases the excessive optimism. The rally could extend, but it is probably only a corrective bounce.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Too much, too fast. Wednesday extended Tuesday’s rally from Friday’s Island. Already 61.8% of the drop from prior highs has been retraced, and could extend slightly higher to test 1540.00 before reversing down hard.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Not a bullish use of time. Another day was spent only hovering at or above resistance. This limited bounce doesn’t create room to absorb a likely retest of prior lows. And the delay doesn’t prevent sellers from refueling. Resuming the decline soon would likely be violent.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Too little, too late. Tuesday’s breakout above 95.50 was too late to be optimal. But a second consecutive higher close would have confirmed. Wednesday didn’t confirm, so a break back under 95.50 would target a test of 91.00.

Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) The downside of bottoming. Wednesday failed to exploit another opportunity to rally above 4.40, which would trigger a new rally leg underway. The delay can be dismissed due to EIA coming Thursday morning. But no further delay could be considered bullish.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Reluctantly bottoming. A spike up in reaction to Portugal’s downgrade still peaked at the 74.85-75.05 bounce limit that had contained Friday’s bounce. Closing above it prior to fresh lows retesting 74.55 support would not be very credible for reversing momentum up. Trying to rally too soon may only stretch the rubber band tighter for fresh lows to test 74.15.

Gold Aug (GCQ) No grapefruit is an island, either. Tuesday’s open gapped up above Friday’s range, essentially forming an Island. Its recovery extended higher intraday to probe last week’s 1515.00 bounce limit by several dollars after the pit close. Back under 1507.50 would signal momentum reversing down, targeting a retest of Friday’s lows down to the decline’s 1474.50 target.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Beware the shallow bounce. Thursday’s test of the drop’s minimum objective at 122’28 robbed the decline of its traction. It has yet to produce much of a bounce. Friday’s 123’12 high was retested throughout Tuesday. The bounce’s delay should not be confused with basing. No bounce is required before resuming the decline, and resuming the decline prior to bouncing could form a plunge to 120’12.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Beware the false break. An overnight dip to 94.35 stopped optimistically short of touching – let alone triggering – the 94.25 sell signal. Tuesday’s open gapped up above prior highs to attack 97.50. Closing above 95.50 signals a new rally leg underway, but color me suspicious. If a second consecutive higher close on Wednesday doesn’t confirm, then a quick downleg targeting a probe under 91.00 becomes very likely.

Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) That’s the wind-up, now waiting for the pitch. Despite gapping up Tuesday to test the 4.40 buy signal, a steep mid-morning drop to 4.25 probed under Friday’s 4.30 lows. Despite probing under Friday’s 4.30 lows, Tuesday’s close recovered to close positive, attacking 4.40. Early strength Wednesday would be credible for launching a rally leg, but almost any further delay would be difficult to avoid fresh lows under 4.20.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Bottoming too quickly. Friday’s open gapped up from Thursday’s test of the 74.55.74.75 pullback target. That’s a little too quick for a new upleg to begin, and a little too aggressive for its beginning. The bounce limit was tested entirely 74.85-75.05, and sent price back down to test Thursday’s close. If Friday’s bounce wasn’t premature, then it may have refueled sellers to resume the drop, next targeting 74.15.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Back into the shafts. Wednesday and Thursday’s 1507.50 and 1515.00 bounce targets had held their tests, allowing the decline to resume. It began overnight, plunging to fresh lows at 1478.30. That’s within $4 of the minimum target. The character of its test – if even held on a closing basis – would determine whether lower targets are also in-play.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Don’t blink, maybe you missed it. Closing Thursday back above the decline’s 122’28 minimum target allowed a corrective bounce to form. Friday morning’s econ reports disallowed it. Firming early up to 123’14 was reversed 1 point down to 122’13, nearing Thursday’s 122’05 low. Not bouncing into Friday’s close, and/or out of Sunday night’s open, could mean the little bounce there was has already resolved down – and resuming the decline already could resemble last week’s drop.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) The market is waiting for that other shoe. Two days spent testing 95.50 resistance meant that attempt wasn’t going to break higher. Rather than probe a fresh high before reversing down, Friday’s open dipped to 93.45. A bounce peaked 10 cents short of 95.50, so now a break under 94.25 would signal a downleg underway, confirmed under 92.80, and targeting 91.00 or 88.75. Perhaps a new rally leg is already underway if 95.65 were recovered through the close.

Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) After the holiday weekend gas guzzling. Thursday’s stunning recovery from the open’s deep gap down earned some rest before extending higher. Friday’s dip should have satisfied it. Closing above 4.40 would trigger a rally leg underway.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Day late, dollar short. Get it? The 74.55-74.75 pullback target was finally met Thursday before the open. It was a pullback target one week ago, but wasn’t met before a Pivot Reversal triggered a detour back to prior highs. Now a bounce has room up to 74.85-75.05 without yet gaining traction to launch a new rally leg. Meanwhile, extending the decline could test 74.15 before suggesting a much bigger downleg is underway.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Still testing resistance. Bounce potential was increased up to 1515.00 for Thursday after Wednesday’s potential to 1507.50 was attacked to within 50 cents. The higher resistance was attacked to within 20 cents before reversing down sharply. Another bounce intraday was also rejected. There’s still room to fluctuate without yet resuming the decline that is next targeting 1474.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Minimum objective met. The drop from 127’00 extended down sharply Thursday for a third consecutive session. The intraday probe down to 122’05 was recovered to close back above the drop’s 122’28 initial objective. Actually, it was still being tested through the close, making a corrective bounce likelier, but still not required. A corrective bounce’s target would be 124’12, but extending the decline would next target 120’12.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Waiting for a bigger shoe to drop. Thursday’s test of 95.50 held for the second consecutive day Thursday. Breaking higher after testing resistance for two days would be suspicious without an interim pullback. Fresh highs Friday could attract one more round of selling – whether it is organic pessimism, or external (SPR dump). Reversing an early surge to close negative would trigger another dip targeting 92.50, possibly an intraday probe under 91.00, and potentially 88.75.

Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) More sellers trapped. Pessimism down to 4.21 ahead of Thursday’s EIA report triggered a gap down that filled the gap back to Monday’s close. Then, true to form with extreme sentiment before an EIA report, the market reversed up sharply to test 4.38. Just recovering 4.35 suggests sellers have been marginalized. Closing above 4.38 – or else extending sharply higher without delay – would signal a new upleg underway.

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