Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) One day up, one week down. The lower-end of the range was widened as the pullback extended down sharply Wednesday. Last week’s Pivot Reversal that had signaled the downleg’s premature end has been retraced fully. Bounces should now hold 75.20 to maintain potential to 74.55-74.75.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Getting ready to lose its bounce. The corrective bounce extended into Wednesday after Tuesday’s peak stopped short of fulfilling its 1507.50 objective. The next higher objective at 1515.00 was attacked to within $1. Thursday morning’s action might yet test 1515.00, but any pessimistic behavior would be credible for resuming the decline.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) As if a big buyer has left the building. Wednesday’s fresh lows at 123’12 stretched the three-day decline to test two of the rally’s prior lows in the same day. This expends a lot of selling pressure that increases the potential for a corrective bounce as high as 125’00. The trend otherwise remains down.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Warning shot, or direct hit? Wednesday’s 95.84 high filled the gap back to last Wednesday’s close. It also failed again to recover 95.50 which would have triggered a new upleg underway. Potential remains alive to new lows targeting 88.75. In thanks to the extent of the bounce so far, holding an intraday test of 92.50 would start to form another potentially bullish pattern without requiring new lows.

Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) Well-timed pessimism. Wednesday’s low tested 4.28 as support, just 2 cents short of a more constructive bottom. At least the dip wasn’t recovered to close above 4.35. A wider reaction to Thursday’s IEA report could test and recover these levels appropriately to signal the next leg underway, whether up or down.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Upper-end, meet lower-end. The upper-end of the range at 76.15-76.30 finally said “farewell” Tuesday. The Dollar dropped back down to the range’s 75.45 lower-end. The lower-end could expand down to 74.55-74.75, too, before a durable rally leg can begin.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Pausing for the decline to catch its breath. Three consecutive sessions of substantial intraday drops were likely to correct Tuesday, presumably up to 1507.50. The bounce target was met within 50 cents, and could still extend up to 1515.00. Back under 1494.75-1496.75 would resume the decline, next targeting 1474.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Support melting like buttah. Monday’s close under 125’20 wasted no time Tuesday extending down under 125’10, 124’28 and 124’18. Already having been probed intraday as support on the way up to 127’00, bounces should hold these levels as resistance if tested intraday. Extending down would next target 122’28, on the way to 121’25 and 120’11.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Delaying the eventual. Tuesday’s rally may be excessive optimism. The open gapped up, the gap back to Monday’s close was never filled, and the rally extended higher to close above 92.50. Regardless, it does reflect the decline’s waning sponsorship. Whether the potential to 88.75 were realized in the process, recovering a steep intraday drop would finally form a bottom.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Getting readier. Monday’s rally back up to the lower-end of 4.28-4.32 was followed by Tuesday’s slice up through its upper-end to 4.38. The gap back down to Monday’s close will want to be filled, so I would not want to chase near-term strength. But the price action is very appropriate for the bottom we have been tracking.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Stuck between rocks and hard places. As it was with Friday, not rallying immediately at Monday’s open was unlikely to rally at all. So, firming momentarily was reversed quickly to Friday’s low – essentially just noise for the day. Not breaking lower Tuesday would create more potential to resume the rally, first.

Gold Aug (GCQ) It’s a start. Friday’s extension of Thursday’s plunge was extended again overnight. Monday’s session barely retested Sunday night’s lows. That hesitation might allow a corrective bounce, but it should be limited to 1507.50. The trend otherwise remains down and next targeting 1474.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) This time it’s different. Monday’s session was entered without any upward momentum, despite Friday having having touched 127’00. But Friday’s close was back under prior intraday highs, robbing buyers of their traction. Monday’s reaction fell to 125’13, more for lack of new buyers than for new sellers. In other words, sellers have yet to expend energy. Closing back under 125’10 would signal they had begun, and that a new downleg was underway.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Delaying the inevitable. Monday’s wide range developed almost entirely within Friday’s range. But it was otherwise essentially an inside day. So, gapping down and spending the entire session in negative territory was not “ineffectual pessimism.” It is possible to probe lower lows Tuesday.Still, Monday’s largely inside day is another factor suggesting the decline is losing sponsorship, making 88.75 increasingly likely to hold if tested as support.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Getting ready. Overnight weakness was recovered into Monday’s session. But the 4.28-4.32  area was not tested, nor was it recovered, to signal momentum reversing up.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Holding pattern. Friday’s inside day may buy some time – another day – for extending Thursday’s recovery by closing above 76.50. Not just probing it intraday, which would not be surprising, but closing above it. Otherwise, the likelier scenario is still a multi-session range back down to Wednesday’s 75.20 close, and possibly also down to 74.55-74.75.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Going, going... Thursday’s close at the 1521.00 sell signal extended down Friday morning to its minimum target at 1505.00. Although this outcome has long been expected, its timing was surprising after Thursday’s steep drop. Session lows actually touched 1498.50, and closing under it Monday would confirm the next lower target in-play at 1474.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Probing highs without gaining traction. Testing of prior highs – centered around 126’12 – were probed Friday up to the next higher resistance calculation at 127’00. No pattern had put the target into play, but its test had become increasingly likely since sellers had failed repeatedly to exploit opportunities for regaining control.  Friday’s 126’18 close was back prior intraday highs, and still no pattern is active. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm a breakout, but Friday breakouts are seldom confirmed.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) A bigger bottom still forming. Friday’s inside day did not reject Thursday’s new lows. Testing the next potential target at 88.75 may be inescapable, and the trend remains down. Closing back above 93.50 would suggest otherwise, potentially forming a major bottom.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Bottomed out. The second step to forming a bottom was taken by Friday’s bounce from Thursday’s test of 4.16. The third step would be to close above 4.28-4.32. Basing  for another session before extending the recovery would help to launch a more durable rally.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Don’t blink, you’ll miss it. Wednesday’s Pivot Reversal around 74.93 extended sharply higher Thursday amid a the news. It filled the gap back to last Thursday’s 76.22 close, whose open had fulfilled the last rally leg’s 76.40 target. The interim drop’s gaps had suggested it would be retraced. But now the retracement’s own excessive optimism is undermining the recovery potential. Unless Friday were to close above 76.40, the pattern may enter another narrow range.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Five up, reversed by one down. Wednesday’s test of the 1558.00-1560.00 area reacted down immediately. Its 1544.00 buy signal was retraced overnight, the 1533.00 sell signal was triggered at Thursday’s open, and the original 1524.00 sell signal was probed intraday – down to 1511.50. Just closing under 1521.00 would signal a new downleg underway, but it was still being tested through the close. A new downleg remains likely, so long as 1524.00 is not recovered on a closing basis.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Another ceiling test. Without yet having closed under 125’10, sellers had yet to gain traction. Thursday’s gap up was natural for a flight-to-safety, and prior highs around 126’16 were probed throughout the day. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm a breakout. Regardless, fresh highs can be probed intraday up to 127’00 without gaining traction for anything more substantial.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Making a big bottom bigger. Recovering 95.50 should have been only a formality, regardless of the potential to retest 91.52 overnight lows. The Dollar’s overnight surge prevented 95.50‘s recovery, while 91.52 was probed down to 89.69. Still testing 91.52 at Thursday’s close did not allow a bottom to form. Closing back above 83.50 93.50 would suffice, but otherwise lower lows have potential to 88.75. Regardless, the bottoming pattern is only getting bigger.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Slamming impatient buyers. Closing above 4.37 Tuesday was premature without first recovering from fresh lows under 4.32. It only added to the pent-up selling pressure, which made Thursday’s drop extend more deeply under 4.16. Closing above 4.20 would rob the drop of its momentum. Closing above 4.30 would signal momentum reversing up.

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