Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Aggressive selling… too aggressive? Sliding from Wednesday’s open fell relentlessly back under the pattern’s 101.50 recent highs, filling the gap back to Friday’s 100.47 close. That left outstanding the gap back up to Tuesday’s 102.50 open. It doesn’t require being filled since it was produced by a 3-day holiday weekend. A second consecutive lower close under Wednesday’s 99.91 low would put into play a test of 97.50. Closing under it would target 88.75. Meanwhile, a bounce has potential up to 101.80 without a bigger rally gaining control.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) A refreshing pause ahead of news. Extending aggressively up to 4.70 Wednesday had created room for a pullback down to 4.58. It was attacked at Wednesday’s low, and could be tested intraday Thursday (EIA is reporting) down to 4.53 before considering whether the rally is losing momentum. Otherwise, the rally’s 4.80 target remains in-play.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Could have been worse, which is bullish. Wednesday’s gap down initially extended Tuesday’s drop. The gap’s open was essentially at Tuesday’s 74.55 low, and Wednesday’s 74.35 low was recovered to close back above Tuesday’s 74.55 low. Closing back above 74.75 (instead of still in the process of testing it) would have trapped shorts, but closing back above Tuesday’s 74.55 low does prevent sellers from gaining any new traction for their efforts.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Approaching the danger zone. A surge to new highs came within $6-1/2 of the 1558.00-1560.00 corrective bounce target. This leg should touch 1553.00 before becoming vulnerable to a bigger dip. So, the afternoon’s drop to 1542.00 is probably just a temporary pullback. The rally wouldn’t start losing traction without closing under 1538.50.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) As if being forced reluctantly to rally. Tuesday morning’s recovery to fresh highs had extended up only narrowly through the close. Wednesday’s open exploded higher to fulfill the next objective at 125’20 (126’30 basis Jun). A second consecutive higher close would confirm the next objective in-play at 127’00.  A pullback would meanwhile have room down to 125’10 without letting sellers gain traction.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Momentum of truthiness. The recent drop’s moment of truth began with Monday night’s test of 74.75 as support. Repeatedly testing it intraday never gained traction to extend down. But neither was its testing recovered. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would be credible for signaling a much bigger downleg underway. Avoiding a lower Wednesday would maintain the potential for retracing back up to and through the pullback’s ~76.50 origin.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Losing sponsorship as the bounce progresses. Tuesday’s fresh high attacking 1542.00 closed back under last week’s ~1540.00 high. Its pullback didn’t dip under 1531.00, whose break would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 1528.50. The bounce’s 1558.00-1550.00 target otherwise remains in-play, next confirmed above 1544.00.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Inching higher, almost literally. Tuesday morning’s dip down to 125’11 was recovered to probe fresh highs above 126’00. That was by mid-morning. The balance of the session eked narrowly higher. The pattern’s potential up to 126’30 remains alive, albeit not yet with any reliable path. But now pullbacks have room down to only 125’11 before the rally would lose traction.

Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Pent-up buying pressure releases steam. Gapping up Tuesday to 102.50 was entirely appropriate for having ranged narrowly just under 101.50 resistance through Friday. By not spiking up, an Island has potential to form by gapping down back under 101.50. Otherwise, a fresh high would still target a probe above 104.50, where a bigger downleg would be likely.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Continuing the power play. Friday’s test of the 4.55 target was not corrected before extending higher Tuesday to 4.70. In fact, the rally gapped and then extended higher, reflecting a lot of optimism. But the next higher target at 4.80 remains in-play, so long as pullbacks hold any test of 4.55 as support.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Stretching (my) credulity. I am surprised that so much selling pressure already expended through Wednesday – from Monday’s fresh high – could be followed so dramatically Thursday. So, imagine my surprise at Friday’s deeper gap down. Thursday’s sellers gained no traction and left no unfinished business below. Extending down into a downleg would all but require gapping down under 74.75 prior lows. Otherwise, I have to view the pattern as over-extended pullback that makes the eventual recovery likelier to be a new upleg instead of only a retest of the 76.54 prior high

Gold Jun (GCM) Giving the bounce more room. The recovery extended up above the 1527.00 and 1530.00 resistance, getting a benefit of the doubt for extending higher to the 1557.00-1560.00 corrective bounce target. The bounce must continue performing without hesitation, which is the nature of a corrective bounce. That could be an issue in case of a $USD bounce. Now pullbacks must hold 1527.00 as support to maintain the rally’s momentum.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Waiting for firewords. Friday was not very productive, failing to confirm Thursday’s breakout. But 125’06 wasn’t attacked or broken, so there remains potential up to 126’30. The path is not yet predictable, so the pattern is not attractive for trading. But  until actually closing under a prior low there is no sell signal to calculate.

Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Optimism in check. Friday’s narrow inside day did not exploit the repeated testing of the 101.50 upper-end of the trading range. The delay, without a deeper dip, does help to confirm that any break higher is likely to be only temporary. Regardless, closing under 99.35-99.50 is still needed to trigger the next downleg targeting 88.75.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) A little room to pause. Friday’s gap up above 4.40 extended higher to totally exploit Thursday’s big recovery back above 4.33. The intraday day high fulfilled the 4.55 target, which held an intraday retest. A pullback has room intraday down to 4.35-4.40 before extending higher to 4.80. But actually closing under 4.40 would become vulnerable to trending down sharply.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Squeaky wheel finally getting grease. Has the repeated testing of 125’06 finally chipped away at its resistance. Reactions down all failed to gain traction before being recovered. And Thursday’s new high up to 126’00 suggests that a breakout is underway. Its target is 126’30 so long as Friday confirms by closing higher for a second consecutive session, and 125’06 holds as support.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) A little late for such selling drama. Thursday was a little late to finally force a gap down, considering that price has been under pressure since Monday’s open gapped up. An intraday bounce narrowly missed filling the gap back up to Wednesday’s close, reflecting pessimism to suggest the bottom may be in. Initial strength Friday would be credible for extending higher into the weekend.

Gold Jun (GCM) No Island, but no rally either. Thursday’s gap down wasn’t deep enough to form an Island from Tuesday and Wednesday’s ranging. And the morning’s 1514.60 low already filled the gap back to Monday’s 1515.70 close, so now an Island isn’t possible. A close above 1527.00 would signal the corrective rally extending higher, confirmed above 1530.00 and targeting 1557.00-1560.00. Until closing above 1527.00, a dip should test 1511.50, whose break lower would trigger a bigger drop targeting 1501.00.

Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Reacting down from resistance. Wednesday’s rally to the range’s 101.50 upper-end was retraced back under 100.00 Thursday. Closing under 9935.00-99.50 would signal momentum reversing down, targeting 98.75. But a fresh high close above 101.50 would get a benefit of the doubt for triggering a rally.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Absorbing a big dip. Modest weakness down to 4.30 (basis Jun) into Thursday’s open was exacerbated down to 4.20 in reaction to EIA. Despite the sizable plunge, the close recovered above 4.30 to maintain the rally’s momentum. Basis July, closing above 4.40 (basis Jul) should signal the rally has resumed.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Ready to rock, or else to roll over. New relative highs up to 101.63 probed the two-week old range’s upper-end. Unless reversed immediately back under 99.35 to launch a new downleg targeting 88.75, the bounce is targeting 103.00 A close above 103.75 would trigger a new upleg.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Just waiting for an updraft. Tuesday’s modest dip down to 4.27 was recovered through the close, and Wednesday extended it back to the range’s 4.38 upper-end. Any fresh high would be credible for extending to the next higher targets at 4.50 and 4.80.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) No harm, no foul, no rush. Wednesday’s opening strength wasn’t too modest, but it didn’t gain any traction. It was reversed instead, back into negative territory. The reversal was no less modest than the opening strength, and also did not gain traction, as the session ended the day ranging narrowly around unchanged. That is essentially three days of selling pressure since peaking at Monday’s opening gap up. The rally can resume now without delay, if it intends to resume at all.

Gold Jun (GCM) Island hopping? Wednesday ended largely unchanged after extending slightly higher overnight, while other metals were rallying more strongly. This repeats the potential for gapping down under 1319.00 at Thursday’s open to form an Island out of Tuesday and Wednesday’s ranging. The corrective bounce’s trend otherwise remains up.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Big time distribution, or else. Despite probing new highs overnight up to 125’23, the rally’s 125’06 target again held as resistance through the close. So much chipping away at its resistance eventually makes an actually rally effort all but obligatory. Regardless, a downleg wouldn’t be triggered without closing under 124’20.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).