Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Is there a flight to safety coming? The gap back to the prior Friday’s close was filled. It was created by “ineffectual pessimism,” so its recovery officially traps shorts. Any positive close would signal a new upleg underway.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Close enough for a bounce. The 1361.50 bounce target was met met within 50 cents. A reaction down to test 1342.50-1345.00 could launch another bounce leg targeting 1376.00. But otherwise any lower close would signal a new downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Target met, if that’s the target. The long-standing target at 118’00 was met Friday. It was exceeded enough to make 117’16‘s test likely, too. Any bounce this close to the low would be only a correction.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) An auspicious start. Thursday’s narrow ranging between 90.15-90.75 – the sell signal and its confirmation – wasn’t ready to extend down. Friday’s open held a test of 91.35, whose recovery would have triggered a bounce. The balance of the session plunged, triggering the next downleg targeting 84.00, so long as 90.15-90.75 is not recovered.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Drop and roll. The reaction back down to 4.32 weakened further overnight before Friday’s open. No lower low intraday only creates pent-up selling pressure. And Mondays in this market often duplicate Friday’s action. The week should begin by extending the drop to its 4.13 target.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Pessimism ahead of the report, or prescience? This leg is still on track to be the leg that breaks 119’17 support to test the 118’00 target. Thursday’s opening drop recovered briefly into positive territory, only to close back at session lows, the lowest lows in months. Now testing 119’00, the 118’00 target’s test should not be delayed. Meanwhile, Employment Situation report is due Friday. A bounce has room up to 120’02 before sellers would lose traction.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Careful what you ask for. Wednesday didn’t confirm Tuesday’s breakout, clearing the way for a recovery. But Thursday’s close was still in the process of testing 77.85, whose recovery was needed to reverse momentum up. And it wasn’t just recently tested – it was still being tested since the mid-morning peak. That’s not the spirit of recovering it. Extending the rally requires either gapping up above 78.30, or dipping first to 77.25-77.45.

Gold Apr (GCJ) The countdown begins. Any dip was likely to refuel buyers for another rally attempt. Already having thoroughly tested 1342.50-1345.00 resistance, its next test was likely to slice higher. Thursday’s dip to 1325.40 soon launched a surge to 1356.60. Dipping back down to test 1342.50-1345.00 as support would help the corrective bounce extend to 1376.00. Otherwise, 1361.50 may be the bounce’s peak.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Down, but not out. Wednesday’s recovery from testing 90.75 and 90.15 support made new highs likely. But its 91.35 trigger was probed only overnight, and held as resistance intraday. Thursday’s action mostly ranged narrowly between 90.75 and 90.15. A close above 91.35 would still trigger at least a brief probe of 93.00. But the curious ranging between 90.75 and 90.15 makes it difficult to signal a downleg underway.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) All that, for that? The repeated tests of 4.32 clearly intended to attempt a run at 4.52-4.55. And any such rally attempt was likely to fail. Thursday’s only surprise is that the attempt peaked short of 4.50 before plummeting. At least some new unfinished business above has been created, back to the 4.47 opening gap. That will help in a recovery, but the trek down to 4.13 remains intact.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Sellers absorbed, another rally leg ready. Tuesday’s close under the morning’s lows was potentially bearish. The setup would have been outright bearish had the interim bounce probed above prior highs, and not just into positive territory.

Wednesday’s lower lows tested 90.75 and touched 90.15, whose breaks would have signaled and confirmed a downleg underway targeting 84.00. But both levels held their test. Its reaction almost closed back above 91.35 whose recovery would put into play a fresh high of at least 93.00.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Good news would be bad news. I’m still no fan of the upside prospects without first testing 4.13 below, or recovering 4.55. The past several bounces and gaps up to 4.32 resistance have been easily dismissed for being excessive optimism, and each has been appropriately retraced.

Yet they keep coming. Once again testing 4.32 Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s EIA report – optimistic, but not excessive, suggests a test of 4.55 is coming. Its recovery is needed to turn bullish, but a test of 4.55 seems likely. And a test of 4.55 would be vulnerable to launching a new downleg targeting 4.13.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) When is a break not a break? Tuesday’s break to new lows lacked sponsorship, making it unlikely to confirm Wednesday. In fact, Wednesday did not close lower. As important then is that no strong bounce expended too much buying pressure before it could become pent-up overnight. A valid recovery should be very aggressive – not rallying aggressively would be likely to fail.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Sideways ranging until a bigger bounce begins. Returning so often to test the 1342.50-1345.00 bounce limit suggests its resistance has been chipped away. That is potentially bullish, waiting to be unleashed by probing higher. Then 1342.50-1345.00 can serve as support to launch a corrective bounce targeting 1361.50 and 1376.00. Meanwhile, any dip is likely to recover. I am not looking for a sell signal until there is a close under 1322.00.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Grudgingly dropping to another fresh low . The drop from 121’14 still behaves as if it intends to break the months-long range and test 118.00. Wednesday’s gap up was rejected to close back under Tuesday’s 119’17 low. The drop’s momentum remains intact so long as bounces no hold any test of 120’02 as resistance.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Apr (GCJ) Who needs trending when the range is so wide. Tuesday’s open gapped up to attack the already tested 1342.50-1345.00 bounce target. It was retested after an interim dip to 1326.00. That’s quite the range. But it is no more predictive than Monday’s session, both being inside days compared to Friday’s range. A close above 1345.00 would target 1361.50 and 1376.00.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) New lows ignore two modestly bullish setups. Two-day reversal setups are less reliable than one-day setups. They can work, but Friday’s did not. Tuesday’s open gapped down to a new low and extended down into the afternoon. It’s a little surprising, because Monday’s “ineffectual pessimism” suggested that sellers lacked sponsorship. Failing to close lower Wednesday would confirm, and offer another opportunity to bottom.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) This is the big one, round four. Monday’s intraday chipping away at 120’14 did lay the groundwork for extending down Tuesday. The 119’17 low retested the same level tested three times before it since Christmas. RSIs deteriorated there, so this leg still has a chance at extending down to become the leg that fulfills the 118’00 objective.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) The door is open to drop. Tuesday’s gap down under the 91.45 and 91.30 sell signals wasn’t going to gain traction while leaving outstanding the gap back to Monday’s close. So the gap was filled, and another intraday downleg fell back under the morning’s lows. The next support is at 90.10 and 89.60. Closing back above 92.10-92.40 would signal the correction had become a rally leg targeting new highs.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Inside day with no bearing. Still no rally attempt able to gain traction without first testing 4.13. Closing above 4.55 would be compelling for long-entry.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Making a bigger bottom? Friday’s completion of a two-day bottom signal was tested by Monday’s gap down that probed slightly lower lows intraday.

But Thursday’s low close held as support through the close, suggesting Monday’s price action was “ineffectual pessimism.” And the gap back up to Friday’s 78.28 close (circled green) remains open and unfinished business.

Bottoming remains intact so long as 77.70-77.72 holds as support.

Gold Feb (GCH) Not all pauses refresh. Monday’s inside day was a stark contrast to Friday’s wild swing. And it was biased up, recovering from a gap down to fill the open’s gap. Closing under 1324.00-1326.50 would signal a new downleg underway, targeting 1265.00. Otherwise, more consolidation is likely.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Chipping away at support. Friday’s close at 121’14 resolved the same as prior probes above 121’14, by gapping down under 120’14. An intraday test of 120’14 held as support, which could be bearish. Closing under it would have been likelier to gap up, so closing under Monday’s 120’09 low would suggest sellers were gaining traction.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Better than advertised. Despite falling back down to 88.45 into Monday’s open, the 90.75 overnight high required a retest. It was retested up to 92.84. That filled the gap back to the two-week old sell signal.Closing under 91.45 and 91.30 would signal momentum reversing down, targeting 89.50. Closing above 92.60 would likelier extend higher.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Resisting a bounce. Gap up tested 4.33 resistance, which wasn’t going to recover prior to a bigger dip testing 4.13. In fact, the open’s strength was reversed into negative territory at Friday’s 4.28 low. The open’s gap up could have helped to attract price higher the next day, but the pent-up buying pressure was already released by a surge into the close. A close above 4.55 would still be credible for gaining traction. Otherwise, next target below is 4.13.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).