Saturday Review

Did this week’s fresh lows end the potential for one more new high? That depends on the pullback’s depth and duration. There’s room for a little more of each before considering the trend to have reversed down. This week’s review describes the relevant patterns and likely price action within 15-20 minutes. Then stick around to learn several charting and Fibonacci techniques that help to interpret patterns.

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The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AMZN, AVGO, FCX, XLNX, SHAK, AMD, NVDA, WYNN

and welcome it is Saturday it’s time for the Saturday review please post any questions you have as they come to you and I will surely get to them as possible if you have stock charts that you’d like us to look at the review do instant analysis will do that after we discussed the broader Market bigger picture which is interesting it’s interesting because of the news out there this week yesterday especially should have been Thursday brought to and what is a singular effort presumably not to be redressed soon and that is to change the landscape of Healthcare in the United States which really doesn’t matter generally to the market other than how it affects other initiatives that the market rally was kind of counting on since November it’s a long way down before that goes away but an interesting point to this current down leg is that it is originating from a lower high and that’s not relevant only because it is it means that comes from a as you can see a descending triangle type of pattern and I say type of pattern because it’s actually not a it’s actually not a extended support as I’ve indicated it here I drop my patterns at extremes so this is where this pattern begins and Alternate between support and resistance so this and this are irrelevant which we need to know because we rent a car in a lot of cases we take our measurements from this leg no because this is for this weekend we discussed the 2327 2317 potential coordinate with a replacement of this leg 6182 that Lake this has reverse this is a very common for patterns before the break out more substantial for the purpose percent projection comes in 2333 right now there’s about a three and a half Point discount or premium tooth over futures which puts this is at about 2330 we happen to have unfinished business below at 2331 from earlier this week so a lot of soul and yesterday by the way yesterday is low came due within 3 tix at 2331 which does effectively neutralize that attraction that I just labeled as unfinished business but after several days and on a Friday afternoon when participation is generally less When there’s less liquidity even if there were more volume what does that mean even with more volume there’s less liquidity because that volume tends to be one-sided or easily whipped into a one-sided friends so I don’t really do a Friday afternoon extreme especially when it’s a new trend extreme or new extreme for a move I don’t really view that as representative or predictive so I am expecting 2331 for those reasons to be proud that’s Futures. 2333 something bases cash so let’s just say that we’re going to pray whatever however this resolved it has to include some form of a freshly that’s one candidate for that freshly another candidate for the fresh little bit off these levels because this is Cash There’s different different spreads versus you choose a different times but if this is not the next objective lower there’s an interim objective or what I call room for noise I cash my cash measurements have to happen to be coming in around 2327 which is not exactly correct for futures because Futures actually does come in at 2327 but versus the 21 objective that is in the process of being tested there’s room for 9 to 2327 so this leg can be just a retest of the prior low that’s earlier this week these are not daily bars is there any one minute bars this way down doesn’t have to slow its Pace Monday or I can get back underway Sunday just because it’s test touched the prior low two weeks prior low and held and as we’d be called bounced into the clothes that again this is just not a predictive window for analytical purposes late Friday afternoon so that bounce if anything refueled sellers so looking for that declined to extend or at least momentarily try and find buyers clean out the rest of sellers so that’s the 2327 area if that gives way there’s one more opportunity around 2317 futures and that’s an opportunity for this having failed to retest reptiles with y’all discussing the moment for this to basically serve as a correction to hear to hear little bit of room down at 2310 2311 futures which is the roof for noise under 2317 but that’s all in the context of this being a correction of this and after that resuming the rally that this is not the sort of pattern you see it getting steeper and if we traced out this path I do believe that is the slope that will be it will be entering on that last leg if that’s the last leg this isn’t the kind of pattern that suddenly reverses up on a dime so it’s some sort of backing and filling based on how many weeks this is taken and will it take him presumably to develop this probably takes a week plus or minus a day or two and then Not That We’re Off to the Races again but Riley mode back on and all of that because rather than sending triangle pattern or because it’s just setting triangle pattern has broken lower rather than allowing a retest of the high and not just re-tested Ohio but actually one more Valley leg descending triangles the dissension refers to the lower or the counter Trend action in its extreme here’s the extremes on the count on the counter Trend action they’re descending that’s what is descending triangle refers to it doesn’t necessarily referred to as this one we can see the outcome is descending but that’s not the same descending triangles in uptrends often do brake higher they are corrective patterns they tend to break out when a breaker in a permit into a permit or more permanent durable Peak that in this case basis cash targeted about 2418 2415 filters had this break lower developed instead of here or have that not developed at all which really became all that required as soon as we started entering that like headed instead produced a fresh-caught perhaps allowing this to be more of a symmetrical triangle and not even forming this way then we still would be maybe not so quickly is now but still would be attacking these levels so whatever tential the lower levels but this would be more assertive being a top we wouldn’t be looking for Recovery Potential from 31 2731 we wouldn’t be looking for Recovery Potential from 2317 which we are forever this way it happens to land and that being within this context I am expecting that to launch that one more higher high which by the way I could be more substantial at that point that’s new president so widely accepted the old president to be able to squash it the rest of it this week conservatives and a lot of what the Rally’s built on goes away I don’t really have any opinion on any of that other than to point out that suddenly there’s a bigger reason for exiting stock a bigger reason maybe for focusing on Blue Chip stocks versus speculative or more economically sensitive we’re already saying and some of the Dead I know 0 had just been reporting or disseminating some of the stuff that lone Generations being down used car prices plummeting so there’s reason to be suspicious that this is about to do a 180 or doing a but that’ll all be out in the next day or two the first day or two of this week the bigger minds of all ready I’ve already been making those determinations this is not weak and it last minute stuff they may be already saw that the health-care bill had no chance of passing anyway and already determined what that would mean and have been shifting ahead of that so the more that stuff comes into the headlines the closer we are to a low because the more big money will have already position because of it if that’s the case then that gives us the opportunity for a bottom near-term again in this pattern as you can see from the slopes accelerating the bottom has to begin from almost to capitulated session or two which tends to suggest to 2331 won’t be allowed 23 3127 that’s pretty close but at least on a closing bases will be monitoring those levels especially if there’s an intraday drop down to 2317 for instance that closes back above 31 go to be pretty interesting again not that reverses backup without hesitation because this is not of the bottom we’re not going to get a steep drop that suddenly response it all together but even if we do there’s going to be some hesitation needed because this sort of shock to the system requires 1 more 1 more note and then more durable top could have formed we would be visiting these levels anyway we’d be extending through these levels lower anyway but there wouldn’t be such potential for recovery that’s off the table not 2014-2015 is still has run its course that’s that’s the there’s one other but February at this stage of the pattern based on what that rally that segment of the rally produced in follow through 2 degree that it did before it’s being traced retracing this leg any more deeply than 24 10:20 or 2310 2311 is no longer or tracing but reversing 2415 would be off the table we wouldn’t just be looking at a correction of this up like would be looking at pretty much it’s complete capitulation or if the most bullish just a much much deeper correction if this last leg this app which can be representative this segment can be representative of this last leg basically but if this reaction down this pulled back isn’t just a pullback correcting this leg to this degree they were really looking at a correction of the entire relics in November that’s much lower that challenges 2200 and that probably doesn’t happen in a heartbeat another battery test 52 area is also possible Monday morning before plugging under 31 and what are the odds of testing lower Price Rite 2300 of the next 2 to 3 weeks before making you have questions so the first one that is it possible to bounce a little bit more before resuming the decline because Friday’s late bounce it’s so I took a lot of the edge away from buyers rather than refueling buyers by trapping shorts so that this could be carried over into the next week this time every every cell off every rally please repent the pressures in the opposite direction so when we have it so after this degree to this extent the multiple-time in Windows sewing off to the downside that spit up buying pressure it’s not all shorts that have to cover at some point it’s not all investment thesis Theses that are backing off of exposure to stocks if they anticipate expanding at a later time what is sexually as things move around the mean sell off are ultimately caring this over the weekend probably would have attracted more showing right away if not a mass of gas then probably more showing right away but then things get a little extended to extend it and that pent-up line pressure takes over this case that picked up by and pressure is already been utilized so the question from the template perspective just the way markets work we’ve already got that bass this bounce doesn’t have to extend one tick higher before the decline resume that pent-up bind pressure has been expended the idea that the bad news on Friday is not going to work its way into bad research reports released to the street to the retail proud of the weekend Monday morning lowering of expectations even more so than they have been that kind of action is likely to result and gaps down so the template just the Mechanicals of how the street reacts doesn’t need to bounce any higher if in fact we are bats and 252 and I don’t mean Sunday night before us markets open but if the market does bounce 252 probably were bouncing higher so we did just come into as I defined earlier a potential double bottom retesting the week prior low and holding it through the clothes and that’s just one leg one bounce that doesn’t reverse the trend backup it needed to do more than this come back up above a prior High through Fridays close he can still do that by proxy Monday’s open can be concerned as a short of time machine by proxy not just by extending I are through the day and then closing higher the anchor would be too love but by gapping up to indicate that that whatever happened on Friday was being rejected to indicate that stronger hands more sponsorship was coming in to reverse that the other way should we go to if we go to 52 on Monday we’re probably going back to the hive 56 where there’s there that single parent to come over but are so I left outstanding wanting a retest improbably extending back up the bottom could already be in that 2331 coming to within three types of it and may suffice so we got a 52 or probably reversing the trend backed up anyway otherwise much like we’re all spring equal not just to resume the trend without the leg but to actually Greek Monday’s open Monday’s u.s. open capping down question where the other hundred over next over the next 2 to 3 weeks before making me 2310 2311 refers to if not 2317 that basically refers to getting a steep slope especially and then suddenly running out of steam or basically forming a base 2317 2311 Navy 2310 that really gets dangerous but to come all the way back to 2300 which is another set of lower price and another phase of the market I mean it surely was bullish reason to come back to these little prayer eyes after that consolidation broke higher come back to those lower prayer has produced and Bounds we anticipated that entirely yeah that one set of lower price does not suffice to resume the trend that those lower prioritize our part of then it’s more than just one more lower Pryor High that’ll be were tested so the 2300 2300 area if that has to be rejected then so does the one below it which basically comes in 2280 kinnett really good it’s so then after a couple 3 weeks if the numbers are off to 2317 2311 isn’t it does it just take a week or two more I don’t think so the measurements on this pattern just don’t allow that much deeper the dip structurally today at work itself out back above prioritize the rally has to resume by taking out prior has it that time at that point that stuff you can see how it was here from this to take out its Pryor High never happened 2300 what the last on the order of time it took to climb up oh I see so is this and we really have to determine where are we starting this from I mean I just went from November because that’s the biggest longest drawn-out Market that hit all the right spots as far as holding a lower priority altimate lay its cetera so is there a relationship between the uh plague in the down leg not necessarily but it’s a different mentality if it’s just a correction then yeah there is there should be a ratio but not necessarily so time issue I don’t have a better answer than that extending down Monday morning would make 17 likely on the same day question can sidering the slope of the Sun not necessarily on the same day not necessarily on the same day extending down Monday could leave then a little follow through for Tuesday and that gets the recovery okay let’s look at the compare markets and future this week if there’s any other questions please go and post them and be prepared to list any stock she had as well so here’s our control group major points here and focal point obviously is an extreme Trey Smith new extreme so we got at least a 60 1/8 retracement high to low back to the high you can see the focal points coming into the market 38.2 61 8th here’s where we get our 2311 little bit that would come in at 10 this was coming at 27 alright so this is the ratio this is not driving any kind of value from this pattern from this scheme alone there’s other things that are involved but I’m just pointing out that 61 8th and a leg down that’s extended by 38 – let’s see how the rest of the market is doing compared to that this is one reason why extending down this week comes as a bit of a surprise a bit of a surprise even though we already identified that the Dallas will outperforming the broader Market meeting that they got money they pay for more fiduciary institutional money that has to be in stocks even when it’s not wild about the market was getting overweight on Blue Chip quote on quote so we knew we were into a topping mode but what was surprising is that the bounce reaction or replacement of that first down leg didn’t get to the 61 a so there wasn’t as much of a move into the safe for stocks that it’s may be much more of a problem for the market because if institutional type of money to douchery money is literally moving out of stock. So that they’re not getting overweight Dow stock they’re just getting out we don’t stop at 23 a bassist S&P we don’t stop at 2317 we don’t stop at 2310 there’s a much bigger decline underway but anyway just to make that comparison is that the blue-chip didn’t really bounce that much before extending down and now rather than this leg extending to a 38 to only 6:10 to do a 61 8 in fact the dump of the Dow stocks relative to the broader Market is a little exaggerated here where it wasn’t a little more so exaggerated then it was they said yes but when we compare we can see that you go back to mid February we are still getting to some degree Mark it’s coming into unison let’s see how the speculative interest is going another reason why this week’s drop is a little suspicious or a little surprising is that a big is underway of course Rite Aid has here and then lower highs here there’s not even a comparison to make 38.2% retracement 61:8 this is a replacement this is an extension by 61/8 the interim low that smt’s and dad are both broke this week it helped on and Qs on what should represent the spec you would have interest and I did a lot of that is reflection Apple but it’s more than that so here’s Apple right and here’s the big Target that we had but still ranging around it Netflix still up there or recently up there up their Facebook so it’s not just Apple it is still it is still scattered about the interest Amazon at least holding up so but also not extending so we can’t really describe it to or tribute it to just one but the nature of the MDX does allow it to outperform based on the performance of a handful so just another reason why is somewhat surprising the drop was I mean it happened where it should have happened and it went to where it should have gone but the timing is what if she loved it the timing is one is she loved it and that it interrupted the potential for one more higher high first is another issue the bottom line is we could still get a shower or pull back slightly lower pull back but keep this sat at Shiloh pull back over all bottom for a one-week put some money One or two days and then be back off to be testing the house High Point Andrews holding up but not extending does not mean reverse down on a dime baby nautic if it is like Amazon which I see I believe that the stock request right if it’s like an Amazon Wish printed up fresh high this week that’s one thing that that can reverse down on a dime and it did because it didn’t really pretty much of the high fresh high and it wasn’t part of an uptrend it was just a upper end of the range thing Pro but a Facebook yeah right here there’s a fresh chicken reverse down on a dime absolutely but this is them the more natural consequence of that because you don’t get that kind of ongoing extended Trend and then suddenly wants and do it down trim correction sure you get it correct you get then it looks say this is it we don’t say that we do know with a hundred percent degree of certainty that this is the beginning of it no to anticipate so this is what I call pivotal High the high prior to the actual High the retest of big Trend changes just don’t happen so abruptly there were covered so we know we’re going to now what was that other one 4115 did we get there the opening print above all others not much but it’s not but there’s not enough of that in the the end of the what I suppose my question 2275 okay I think our numbers are a little different here let me know what day in November you’re talking about the market to retracement would have sucked when I moved in new house be less that if the correction 1 / 261 8th Avenue and it which is awesome question because on the one hand a shower pull back leaves the mortgage closer and proximity to the prior high so it’s easier to get to it and threw it 6168 Richmond is actually more constructive because it cleans out the market we can did Longs and get some or shorts in there or at least less exposure if it’s a longer drawn-out move it if it’s a more aggressive move either one of those tens to make the various sentiment index is more bearish witch from a country in perspective than to lose more bullish so creative bigger base is the answer create a bigger base a deeper correction create so much more room to the upside much more momentum that can be created just stopping the answer there we can say six of one half a dozen of the other there is a deciding factor though and it is what was the origin what was the top that led to their placement so if this sad ascending triangle where to produce a 38 to retrace meant whatever leg and you want to go with November’s low I-20 2075 ish 2080 call it 38 to betray Smith gets his back down into these lower price that if you have to Beaver tested gets his past this lower Pryor High to the next lower Pryor High that’s an opportunity to clean out the market pretty considerably what happens if we have to do is 61 eight we get under these under this consolidation that’s where difficult to recover going to get really in the weeds here because as I said the determining factor is what kind of selling pressure led to that so here’s our pattern does Triangle let’s give it as much power as we can there’s a 60181 extension of that triangle coinciding with the 38.2% retracement of this up like 161 8th projection of that 61/8 or any kind of an extension that is a 60181 60181 261 please give me very constructive they’re not mainstream they are definitely more representative Mass psychology that it would coincide with the 38.2 I wouldn’t look at that is being a speculative pull back no be pretty sad if we had to extend down past the 261 8 we’re no longer anchored to this pattern think it’s so extended that price action is no longer influenced by this but buy New Perspectives that came into the market yeah the 61 a replacement of this late at that point could produce about the rally but from where from too deep to be attracted back up to that I so lot of mainstream stuff for mainstream to the degree that there is Fibonacci analysis that is mainstream is just going to look at the lake that got us there and determine a correction of that but it has to be taken to another level which is I just I think I portrayed pretty accurately can get pretty deep in the weeds you have to look at what sort of action is producing it pot leaf on it from the November 7th question I was thinking that I move to 2275 with that have a new high but not romantic that’s possible a lot of it then just as I pointed out this pattern that got this leg going measurements of it will be important so will measurements of what if in fact 2275 holds so will measurements of the base or the actual pattern that forms here if it develops quickly and doesn’t allow a lot of time for accumulation 4 Bit Stronger hands to come in and have positions to defend against pullbacks or being well rewarded they buy pull backs and help to produce higher highs if it’s just a really quick reaction up probably only shallow or high is produced if that this has been a pattern of the last several days what I expected to persist at least Monday yes we’re getting to the end of the road here on the decline you know it’s gotten very high profile in the last couple weeks or the last week I’m sorry because of the slope because we speaking your prices are now if we got more weakness Monday afternoon similar to what you’re describing afternoon weakness afternoon weakness after new week this afternoon weakness that would be part of the same pattern and we’d expect a fresh loaf but it could turn right back around the next day remember at the bottom that we were tracking previously when did it finally bottom right in here what was the first indication that a bottom of that of reversal may actually be fun we had indications of a bottom probably for me because they were prior eyes are being tested what gave us an indication that momentum may be reversing up it was when we finally got a positive close right in here and then more so when we got a second consecutive positive close on the next day he heard something about that first positive clothes that we got of the entire sequence it’s still contain the fresh does that mean it was the bottom now we still had something else to contend with and then the pattern stop that is there’s a rally into the clothes as we talked about 2 weeks ago when we were described discussing this pattern there was still potential for a pulled back but it oughta be recovered in fact there you go so it’s longer and drawn-out real real turning points maybe not real long turning point but this was not arbitrated accomplish something turning points real turning points aren’t just a matter of changing one feature to the pattern that got to that extreme so while the afternoon action would be relevant it won’t be a determination won’t be isolated to that one feature or on the market if there’s more let me know but would pose questions but otherwise I did see some stop request earlier

Last week’s Saturday Review left us confident that the multi-session decline was ending. Which the decline then did. This week’s Saturday Review tells us why its recovery may have ended already. Which it probably has not. Specific setups greeting the new week are defined, along with their likely consequences, and where it all fits into the bigger picture.

 CLICK HERE TO WATCH 

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
FDX, MOV, AAPL, LEN, KBH, VRX, GDX, VZ, ADBE, ORCL

so we had a eventful week we’ve had a good deal of confirmation to the patterns that we’ve been monitoring go back to last week basically it take a look at where we left things heading into the weekend there been two consecutive higher closes in the context of an ongoing declined really just multiple consecutive sessions any bit of these elements on a continual basis lower lows levels lower closes everyday consecutively had that mall for succession that’s a lot of sewing pressure without refueling the refueling came in today but negative close if your negative clothes and finally despite getting a fresh blow intraday got a positive closed last Thursday so big feature to keep in mind about trending trending reversals really difficult to start a reversal to end the trend on the same day or at least that is the day following a fresh low without something else but haven’t happened in that so that’s why I’m last Wednesday we had a reasonable degree of certainty that the trend was extending and it did it has to except for one exception which is the abrupt introduction of new sponsorship instead of this sponsorship running out of steam being fully expended new sponsorship Russians in that’s in the form of the Gabba we got it all really in this spot as last weekend so we enter the weekend with a pretty high degree of confidence built on the high degree of confidence that we had any way that you don’t take a new high and immediately reverse Down Under lower prayer has this show for bass just wasn’t going to give away on its first hit important point to keep in mind first hit and that’s not to say this is the first and second it I’m going take a little longer than usual there’s one more couldn’t get because actually did develop on Tuesday it was contained and Wednesday ahead of them already if a better time to UFC news is that there’s been a breakout and a pull back pull back Target that had been met that’s where the news was greeted why we even entertain to buy signal of course we action pre substantial something to pay attention to hear as before we tie it all together and hear something to pay attention to hear this is the fomc reaction it’s a breakout session it’s the first close above multi-session range there’s another break a couple Wednesday’s prior that’s the reaction to the president joint Congressional speech tonight before that was a one-off no confirmation no second consecutive her clothes the following day is that a pattern here’s Thursday no second consecutive her clothes the following day third time it’s not really a charm and actually if we do see a third break out then we will have a high degree of confidence that it won’t be confirmed but in any case Thursday not event Friday kind of a non-event especially for being a expiration quadruple witching expiration if that come into this pattern on confirmation session on Thursday the set up into it the least likely scenario was for the balance of the session to just trade out and in the absence of breaking of the way before the close the following open was likely likeliest to Gap open and didn’t there’s going to be any time that the mechanics of the market override the normal patterns going to be expiration so it’s also interesting that expiration has traded out as well and I feel like I’m trying the morning drifted down help support the mornings buy a stamp signal the afternoon drift it up trigger no bias actually probe the bicep signal during the nobodies environment being no bias trending it required being retraced and it was a little bit deeper than it needed to be it was likely it was likely to return to 27225 it was likely to return to 2380 if not also 2379 it did that and didn’t stop and that brings us to looking forward never come back inside one more thing together about that Pryor High looking forward we had on Wednesday or bullish FedEx which is influential Friday afternoon and Monday morning now it when we say bullish we think more about this than we think of it like this the timing timing is almost everything in my work so it’s of course major interest as to when this actually became this so if the afternoon was a series of higher highs and higher Lowe’s may be influenced by the bullets wed x may be behaving as though according to the same input output in the bullish way that someone’s day or performing this way in tandem with the boy text whichever we’re going to give her the benefit of the doubt that the WebEx the bullets with ex is in play which is important because of the bullish FedEx is in play if the weather is in play influential will call it on Friday afternoon then it’s likely to be influential Monday morning to whatever degree it’s influential on Friday afternoon it’s likely to be even more influential in other words more aggressive on Friday morning that’s right Monday morning so that’s why we have to pay attention to this did this invalidate this or is this invalidated and it’s the latter this is invalidated as far as being able to invalidate the earlier bullish influence because of the timing it’s expiration day there’s the final hour by the time we eat before we enter the final hour or by the time we do it to the final hour the ongoing series of higher highs and lows remains intact it’s not optimal for sure but I am giving the benefit of the doubt to the bullish FedEx and if the bullish FedEx continues to be influential Monday morning then Post open Action should Trend up aggressively to the morning environment starting at 11:30 the one thing that is where the market will open because that influence applies only to Friday afternoon and Monday Morning Post open the interim reaction the interim price action in Europe can be anything and if it can be anything it can trigger a gap up or down in other words as impedes can trim down even deeper Sunday night greet the open with Monday’s open much deeper and then be influenced Again by the bullets would ex and Trend up to the morning or trim back up to the overnight actually be optimal suboptimal setup is to immediately invalidate whatever made that setup suboptimal what made this is setup suboptimal made it not optimal is that the final hour broke the uptrend so gapping up immediately to retrace that final hours drop would break that up trim or I’m sorry I reinstate that up to break that reverse that break now of course that’s not enough that would need the trend up as well through the open preferably exiting the open above a prior high for confirmation literally reject whatever this late so I’m pressure was because it’s not part of the greater influence some sort of a robe whatever noticed something else price action trimmed it down into the clothes exactly price action trended down into the clothes of an afternoon who’s prot who’s the opposite extreme if we trim down the opposite extreme is the high noticed it proceeded to 30 it was in the 1:20 to 2:30 window it develop during the bias environment so getting up not only back above that last hour segments of the decline but also back above the afternoons high after having trended down into the clothes would form a session Long Valley set up so is session long Riley says at whatever slope every time in window usually with one exception usually the noon hour will at some point probe the prior timing Windows High sounds like an uptrend it’s actually possible to do that each timing window probing the prior timing would have died and maybe have a series of horizon Harlow’s but not really Advanced rate for that if the bullets wed x is going to control this is just a rogue wave Friday’s late down leg then this should be done more aggressively Monday morning there’s also discounting for being over the weekend I tend to dismiss that over expiration because expiration is one movement that’s why they wed x applies to both the Friday afternoon and Monday morning why I can leap frogs over the weekend or basically ignore it so if we get a on Monday backup up Friday afternoon so I haven’t rented down into Friday’s close I’m going to give it every benefit of the doubt that it’s a session Long Valley set up and we’ll be monitoring each time in window for prior timing windows I and so one question maybe not so likely had a post expiration session it would be more unlikely less likely just a normal weekend but after expiration because of the two sections being tied together a setup and one much more often than any normal weekend can LeapFrog over that question should be in Monday and after the bullets way that she’s no more a factor and it Friday afternoon trending down is the movie Rush that’s a possibility because that’s final hour that otherwise invalid it then otherwise trended counter to the bullets wed x actually does invalidate or ultimately invalidates the bullish FedEx it’ll do that not just by tapping down or trending down into the open member the open the following up and can get down and still trimmed up because of the set because of the Red X influence the open the oven in 15 minutes about ility will need to trim down as well and the biased and Signal will need to trigger that’s a general statement about the bike down single triggering because we can get down under it if the buyers down Target is fulfilled but he’ll that’s not the Bears we can try and write back up to the bias down signal but the point being if there’s any reason that any lower Target is put into played by the open by the behavior of the open not just getting down that’s that does not put into play lower Target anything else so any other formation setup structure that would give more credibility to this Final hours reaction down and I wouldn’t be so quick to do that if the bullets wed x influence it actually produced a fresh pie not just broke the prior session so I this is the three minute chart again this is Friday looking at Thursday so not even the side just after noon should give that back less credibility that it can even develop into something more bearish there is any way an attraction remember we entered last weekend with a pretty bullish Outlook in that the I’m going to climb had produced two consecutive higher closes but even that didn’t prevent and wasn’t expected to prevent one more pull back which we got on Tuesday same thing here even if we have the most bullish Outlook that doesn’t mean that there can’t be one more pull back because we do have some kind of Unfinished Business it’s typical I don’t want to say traditional but it’s just typical that the origin of NFL on Siri action is retraced it’s off and retraced within a handful of days if not the following day that origin of course it 370 50 which I suspect will be a probe under 2374 the point being that there’s still an attraction outstanding does it have to happen intraday like it happened on Tuesday that’s Tuesday and have an intraday to pull back it doesn’t have to overnight is more than welcome to get that test out of the way maybe even get down to it having tested it overnight and having completed that pull back take off for the rest of the day or the rest of the morning that is who is no actual pull back limit that says this rally is done instead there’s a balance women that has yet to be exceeded to tell us that this rally this leg is durable why is that because that hi to Wednesdays ago two and a half weeks ago doesn’t actually require big were tested are a size ultimately were not over but simultaneously what is most attractive most of an attraction of this session structurally is its cap up above all prior hide that kept up wants to be were tested from Below and as soon as that’s the only structural elements calculations you know if we do we test Wednesday that Wednesday’s High the objective on that is 2401 if we do resume this rally its next Target is 2415 to their calculus AB of structure which is what is most important is that guy that wants to be retested from below its were tested here from Below but that’s not an arbitrary below originate from touching a prior sessions ring so not until these lower prioritizer touched would have bounced filling the Gap back to that Wednesday’s open not until then with that actually neutralize that attraction and as soon as those lower prayer Heiser touched the first opportunity actually neutralize that attraction was on Thursday Two Thursdays so that’s done there is no requirement to extend any other potential going a couple days without exploding that this upside attractions been neutralized couple sessions without explaining that we’re still in an upward tilt remains intact so I am looking for 2401 as I’ve been looking for looking for last week looking for that ultimately to recover putting out right now is that recovery was please let me know as far as other markets so as soon as we just stupid looking at who is this is the cash got that replacement haven’t really closed substantially higher but if closed but it bounced I enough to qualify as a 61 8 replacement ndx which is speculative index is come alive this is where this reflects more speculative activity even before Excellency in the last weekend we had a retest of the high the damning while significantly underperforming a not even getting to a 61 8 Richmond so as it fixed itself not necessarily there’s a there’s often a final coming together one final thrust we’re not going to see a substantial reaction down while in the ex is making my eyes though not a substantial reaction down that doesn’t recover but just another reason why I am still looking for a retest of the highs at the least and possibly even higher say another 20 points 20s points any questions please go ahead and post them

FOMC’s policy statement is this week, and it’s being greeted by a lot of distribution. Quadruple Witching expiration ends the week. None of which means the reaction will be negative, or that it won’t. Following the path higher, first, can be obvious at Monday’s open. So can a brief detour down. Or a deeper detour. I describe those paths in detail during this week’s Saturday Review, including the specific levels and behaviors that will indicate which one is likely being followed.

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The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
TGT, QCOM, WIX, RH, DPZ, BUD, RAD, SODA

Alleged transcript:
Alright good morning and welcome it is Saturday and time for the Saturday review thanks everyone who is here for being here to to those questions comments as they occur to you will come back to everything if you have any stocks be prepared for those I think we’re going to be about 20 minutes on the market and then any stock requests so let’s get started basically it’s been an interesting week on top of rounding out we were still in progress here as far as the pattern but rounding out a 4 week four weeks tent so we can go back 3 weeks to see that lower price lower prioritize that still we can just buy two consecutive positive closes that the back is done that’s the short week hear that started with a gap up because the President’s Day holiday weekend rallied no confirmation sideways range the following Monday or false Breakout fall start really and anxiousness Tuesday ahead of the president’s State of the Union Address that was taken very well Trend it up overnight Gap top extended higher into last Wednesday’s High last Wednesday’s hi and by the way we’re looking at June which is about three to three and a half point at the time discount to March rolled the front-month this week 2404 essentially 2401 is the room for noise above last Wednesday time if and or when it is we tested 2415 being the next time jective actually as far as recover and one level and extending to the next level that’s our objective if this recovery is going to extend their objective is actually too just structurally structurally to retest last Wednesday’s opening Gabba which base is June was 23 7775 the lower the blow of the bar 7750 that is the minimum objective we did have another objective outstanding 7450 actually was 7758 buy a subsequent tests of the bicep signal that was never tested and remained outstanding to give us Insight confidence that the pull back or they declined we were looking at at least until 7750 basses March 7450 bases June was touched was just temporary but that was retested overnight or I should say pre-open there’s the is a 18 minute chart pre-open yesterday and reaction to the employment situation report so the next objective structurally that’s outstanding as I said is a retest of Wednesday’s opening app for 7750 being it slow and then really nothing above there I’ve been there is a gap also to a close out standing there we can watch them together then that 2401 2401 objective on retesting the high that’s next truck projective then again calculate 2415 or not the not being that and let me narrow our Focus here the not being that this test of lower price which normally holds normally it is retested lower Pryor has the size of the price range that are than lower normally after a breakout it’s quite normal to test that tag up as it were and resume in the direction of the trend normally and usually that normal occurrence resolved and one or two sessions now in this case lower prioritize begin at 2364 which were tested already on Monday we tested on Tuesday as I said normally one or two sessions of that and we’re back off in the direction of the trend of the prevailing Trend did not resume and the stead trend downtrend quite literally a series of lower lows and lower has every single session printing a little low and a lower high persisted and these lower prioritize were probed infect the price range was Pro calculate to it almost at the lowest point that could have been tested before crossing over that point of equilibrium think of it as going over the falls so with the employment situation report approaching the certainly influence their that had the market nervous and went ahead line crossed that regarding the truck and ministrations plans or it is own commitment Trump that’s the market down and had to the week and we know that as a rule because that’s what kind of money put his price in response to headline and then being ahead of the employment situation report we knew that wasn’t going to extend down that it was likely to recover not that it would recover necessarily in the same day which is actually did as a very nice way to end the day but that also broke a trend as I described the ongoing series of lower lows and lower has all of that selling pressure also resulting in lower closes until Thursday Thursday’s was the first session that recovered to close positive despite program freshen today look and that’s been well rewarded already by extending our overnight and Gathering up it’s also been punished or penalized for that because extending her overnight first of all regardless of the news or the scenario situation or whatever the environment a singular trending or singular Trend overnight Relentless singular Trend overnight often is reversed at the open not always and when it’s not very often the remainder of those outcomes very often will just persist that singular Relentless overnight trip and then there’s the remaining few outcomes that are not reliable so if yesterday’s open had resumed singular Relentless overnight trend and extended hire through the open we could have been looking at some significant highest intraday it’s a Friday and so Friday factors get involved that is the impending illiquidity it’s just a different mindset or different influences and when the when that didn’t happen than the alternative off and reverses and the reversal to cold a lot deeper th and that’s what’s so important herean it needed to but we do have a second consecutive positive close  and that’s what’s so important to hear which is that despite reversing the singular Relentless overnight uptrend which by the way in light of the news we were already concerned about excited at the opportunity to extend higher if it could be avoided if we gather above Pryor has could be maintained that is fertile ground up there but still the concern that I had lighted before the open was a lot of optimism ahead of such a weighty announcement being the mornings employment situation report that’s a lot of optimism witch from a country in perspective is potentially barish it proved to be bearish that’s the route of the two pads available to this setup that’s the route the market took and so it’s doubly interesting really exponentially more interesting that despite that despite having overdone the outside and despite being penalized for that even reversing of the negative territory and on Friday no less the market still closed positive for a second consecutive session after six consecutive sessions I’m going thoroughly tested the lower prioritize and still couldn’t break through so the very bullish shut up I’m still very suspicious about the downside the burden of proof is after all of this even more so on sellers because they keep dropping bits of evidence they don’t make their case so it remains to be seen whether all of this selling has served a useful future purpose in chipping away at that support so that for instance after about after neutralizing the attraction to last Wednesday’s open which has to be rejected before a durable top can be credible which can’t be retested like this dipping under it and then retesting it from below it has to be rejected the origin of that retest leg has to be back within lower price we only got the lower price here on Monday and since then there hasn’t been a significant enough to neutralize that attraction and at that point there is a delay and doing that itself being pessimism despite coming so close a couple times that starts to suggest will have an even more bullish have come to that so maybe all this chipping away at the lower prioritize has served a useful future purpose that once that upside attraction or this upside attraction or an even higher upside attraction is neutralized and a down leg can be credible and begins that it doesn’t really have much obligatory support are much support little loaded look at Torrey at what is otherwise a pretty solid shelf of support head that gives way we’re into what what preceded that range I trim trending to the previous consolidation majority of any markets time or stocks time is spent consolidated different estimates 15% 25% 35% markets time is actually trending from consolidation consolidation we’re headed to this trim replacement there’s a variety of different ways to calculate that can identify the levels they graduate in here around 2323 10 with room for noise but that’s what happens next if and or when we break under the show and probably not I’m still forming more credible top if we break lower first if despite two consecutive higher closes say positive closes say that yesterday’s clothes yes as positive close was just a function of that Friday Factor will know that pretty quickly Sunday night or at least Monday is open at least you’re upset by then we oughta be seeing clearly keishin that Friday’s range Fridays bounces being rejected never what the Europeans got to trade on before their markets closed was a pretty favorable reaction to the Employments report that Retreat to wear the market was when the report was released but other than that didn’t even show much more than here at least of even probing into negative territory that may prove very disappointing out that actually resolve that didn’t recover how that really did have that weekend maybe after we can not but or something else comes up but if Friday session isn’t powerful enough to resume the rally there’s really in there is really no excuse to further delay recovering this down to have it all this sewing pressure that was unproductive that’s not two consecutive sessions two consecutive hire a close is no excuse to the rally to further delay its recovery so just further delaying its recovery at least to the Oakland but more likely The Berrics scenario with gas down reject Fridays range we do have unfinished business below at Thursday’s low yeah it originated as a knee jerk reaction to a headline and it was weak and its sponsorship but it had complexity and it did create simultaneously over sold one and three minute all right size at the law that requires an eventual retest so if Monday is open is rejecting Fridays recovery Friday second consecutive are close there’s one more opportunity to form a durable bottom here because we can’t really take a knee-jerk reaction counter-trend to the closes two consecutive closes it was positive closes and so while I ate Immediate Care Trend to that counter-trend action probe of the low good actually reversed and resume the prior week’s Decline and be pretty productive about it Dad to 2310 not from a credible origin so we expect that to be temporary but still pretty productive well that can’t happen the likeliest scenario in the event of testing Friday’s low probing Friday’s low testing Thursday’s low is that that load does hold and that it does launch that more substantial recovery back to the house then we test the highs 2450 that’s where the durable download can take for let me come back to the questions the market cannot have a dream with a client until at least completely round to the Wednesday open I just say I didn’t try that there is more to the answer that what I said I’m sure that we would expect that at the time because of this holding these lower price or be if the lower prioritize were to break that they break prior to neutralizing the March one Gabba we can test that Marked Ones and 2415 would still be on the table but will have a higher pull back actually actually 2357 Sunday night there’s any questions let me know probably let’s look at the comparisons among the indexes and as we do that just as a reminder this last search was preceded by other performance among the more speculative issues performance among the safe for Havens so this was almost Wednesday sure it was almost her essentially originally done not the stuff of strong-headed accumulation invulnerable there for launching a durable download this to a current lease require retest before bigger top form and this pattern this whole stage of the rally is extremely vulnerable to forming that bigger top and that bigger reversal down that will not be surprising be very prepared if I’m not correct about the retest of the high do you think about the Gap up and I’ll be surprised if all this sewing pressure has enough balance that we do get a fly out of it it just won’t be necessary it will be on guard at any time any way for a big drop big persistent The Climb that should be the next stage of this market and it should be Felicia relatively speaking ndx into lower price and remember the law requires weren’t even tested until this week so we haven’t looked at this yet savers just have to be exposed to that kind of exposure but that’s 500 stock index index got down to lower price on Monday and get there until late Wednesday and then really tested it on Thursday barely Safe Haven speculative we already they were already but it has to travel to my comparisons is being any more General comparisons the average post alright so when we look at this I guess it was last week Target needed to recover about 70 to put this pull back out of it so out of control but it decided to go the other way and break under what if I’m sorry I’m going to base is it had room dad to 6150 3575 someone in here that the pattern was basically dictating should be tested anyway that was the opportunity to come out of here we have had a lower Buy Signal but instead the pattern just leapfrogged over it so while that had to be tested a take that test could have been avoided by gapping up that we have been lower Buy Signal with a lower bicycle calculable but I wouldn’t be interested in any bicycle in this time that is nothing to be taken lightly that’s nothing there’s a book here that’s a valuation that historically the market has been comfortable with at least four by four score of stopping profit-taking selling stopping selling any case it is obligatory support nothing bullish about that that support reduced if I had to return to it likely to give away to some degree it looks like a pretty major degree that at some point probably at least most likely I see lower price here around 5870 so I can’t say from here from that prior alone as surely it is obligatory support but it is still likely Torrance it’s not prevented from being probed one thing yes some point I think 4850 needs to be touched maybe there’s a trade in here if there’s a boogie Tori support isn’t much support of the other it’s going to bounce first 25850 59fifty in fact I’m just going to call 39 maybe it’s going to bounce first and then resolve down otherwise if it gets to 48 51st then there’s a corrective belts none of which says this is ever going to return it our lifetimes to acquire hives but that is a pretty substantial turn but that’s the kind of challenge alright come any other starts go ahead and post them please Hisense a pretty decent spot for a bottom on Qualcomm I would suspect I would expect that these higher fryer Lowe’s will be tested next and if not next then it’s some pointthat’s a good that’s a decent spot to originate that move it it’s already on going for a little over a month anyway but that requires at this stage since it’s trying in the volumes a little weak on this afte r the rest follow through though that does require holding 5680 5675 so under 5675 it’s kinda pulled back limit 5675 holds probably headed up here to test-fire Prairie Lowe’s route 6475not going to get very jealous without closing under 5425yeah um Wix you looking for the stock correct and Robert Half Tulsa OK