Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold tripped its signal almost immediately Thursday, which was ultimately very productive intraday. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm that higher targets are in-play. And Gold having the portfolio application that it has, a rally mentality there would have interesting complementary and contrary implications elsewhere.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Very narrow ranging Thursday extended the narrowing range that was underway already Tuesday, making the first trending attempt vulnerable to reversing more substantially in the opposite direction.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s gap up never extended higher despite ranging entirely in positive territory. Like Tuesday, the price action offered no new information to the pattern.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Returning to 1205.00 Thursday didn’t hesitate much before extending through the sell signal up to 1215.40. So long as 1205.00 holds as support, then 1217.00 and 1232.50 are in-play.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s open gapped up to and through the pattern’s 19.70 buy signal, extending higher to put at least 20.45 into play

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ranging around the 129-16 sell signal finally broke lower, testing 128-10 and targeting fresh lows at 127-28 so long as 128-20 isn’t recovered.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh highs at 99.70 Thursday appear to be resuming the rally already underway that is targeting 101.50. Closing back under 98.55-98.65 first would signal instead that a false breakout was reversing down.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday morning’s dip was a more thorough test of the 4.39-4.42 pullback limit. It held again, reacting back up to Tuesday’s 4.45 highs. Almost any initial strength Friday would be credible for extending sharply higher through the one-day delayed EIA report. Closing above 4.51 would renew the rally’s momentum. There is no bullish reason to extend the 4.39-4.42 pullback limit’s test.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The day before Christmas, and all through the brokerage houses, very little was stirring. That’s it. Have a great holiday!

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Firming Tuesday filled the gap back to Friday’s higher close, so extending further in a subsequent session would be likely to trend in that direction. There is otherwise still potential to fill the gap back down to last Wednesday’s close before rallying further.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s gap down probed back into Friday’s range, but did not gain traction, leaving potential for filling the gap above back up to last Wednesday’s close before extending down.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming Tuesday attacked 1205.00, whose retest would be likely to extend higher targeting 1217.00 and 1232.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging to a fresh high Tuesday attacked 19.70 resistance whose recovery would be likely to trigger a bigger bounce back to prior highs. The blip-up may have been more in sympathy with a “fat-finger” spike up in Copper, but relevant levels are not affected.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Tuesday back under 129-16 extended down to the lowest levels yet of the ongoing range around it, which remains likely to extend back down to fresh lows at 127-28.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The confirmed breakout has yet to extend higher, although Tuesday did firm back toward recent highs. But now an extended narrowing range is forming, whose first breakout is likely to be false and then likely to be reversed more substantially in the opposite direction. Surging in either direction would still get a small benefit of the doubt for extending.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s dip fully tested the 4.39-4.42 pullback limit, whose break would suggest the rally’s momentum had lapsed, but not yet that momentum was reversing down. Holding its test makes a retest likely of the rally’s 4.51 target, and potentially resuming the rally.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Very little intraday trending on Monday, as the holiday liquidity began evaporating. The difficulty in generating sponsorship is as difficult as generating countertrend sponsorship. It also makes markets vulnerable to oddities like Sunday night’s bond blip-up.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s gap down went nowhere, ranging sideways essentially back down to Friday’s low. There is no requirement for the next trending attempt to begin immediately, and another intraday dip that recovers into positive territory is the only reliable long-entry setup.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s failure to confirm Thursday’s breakout made the attraction back to Wednesday’s close likelier to fill the gap. Monday’s gap up only ranged sideways within Friday’s range, leaving no particular timing to the next trending attempt.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s dip back down to 1192.00 was sufficient to complete the reaction down from Friday’s test of 1205.00 resistance. A retest of 1205.00 would be likelier to break higher for a corrective bounce with potential back up through 1217.00 to 1232.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s sideways ranging still has room at least another dime higher to 19.70 before suggesting that a more sizable bounce is underway.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Regardless of an overnight “fat finger” surge to 135-23, Monday’s ranging around 129-16 continues to leave the pattern vulnerable to breaking back to recent lows at 127-28.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s fresh high didn’t extend higher Monday, which would have been helpful confirmation to Friday’s second consecutive higher close that was still within Thursday’s breakout range.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s 4.53 high probed the 4.48-4.51 target area’s upper-end. A dip back down into Monday’s open confirmed the area’s resistance is influential. But there is room back down to 4.39-4.42 before suggesting the rally’s momentum may have ended. Closing above 4.53 would next target 4.69.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight While Wednesday’s FOMC news enabled or triggered strong moves among several markets such as Gold, that strength may have produced trend extremes. Durable reversals, and new trends, are another story.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Blipping up momentarily at Friday’s open was reversed into negative territory instead of extending higher to confirm Thursday’s break had resumed the rally. Another break higher Monday would still be likely to extend higher intraday, but still not requiring that it be confirmed.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s opening blip-down was reversed into positive territory Friday, just enough to avoid confirming Thursday’s break had resumed the decline. A fresh low close Monday is no less likely.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Although Thursday’s post-close low wasn’t revisited, Friday’s open briefly probed a fresh intraday low to fulfill the pattern’s minimum downside requirement. The reaction up to 1205.00 resistance suggests as much. This is not a permanent bottom, but back above 1217.00 would target a test of 1232.50 resistance. Backing-and-filling first down to 1195.00-1197.00 would be helpful.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Without probing any lower than Thursday’s intraday lows, Friday’s bounce signaled room up to 19.70 just as noise without yet reversing momentum up.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ranging around 129-16 revisited its upper-end Friday at 130-04, further delaying the attraction back to the lows but not invalidating it.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
[ROLLING COVERAGE FORWARD FROM JAN TO FEB] Friday’s second consecutive higher close above the prior rally leg’s 98.65 target has confirmed the pullback targeting the 94.00 area already ended and that 101.75 is in-play. Pullbacks must now hold 98.15 as support.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s surge on the EIA report extended higher overnight to test the 4.48-4.51 target’s lower-end. Its reaction down Friday held lower prior highs down to 4.41, maintaining the rally’s momentum.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight One day after the world changed forever, i.e. the possibility of Fed tapering was announced, Gold behaved accordingly and plunged. Crude Oil rallied on the endorsement of economic recovery.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s washout gave way to a fresh relative high Thursday. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm a bottom is in, and that momentum has reversed up.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Having held a test of 1.3833 resistance after Wednesday’s FOMC news, Thursday’s gap down to fresh relative lows confirms the level’s relevance. But a second consecutive lower close is still needed to confirm momentum has reversed down. That might be difficult with the gap back to Wednesday’s close outstanding.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite not immediately extending down or recovering from the week’s earlier closes under 1232.50, and despite testing the 1237.00 buy signal both before and after Wednesday’s FOMC news, price eventually extended down to fresh lows. Thursday’s lows under 1192.00 allow room for a corrective bounce either to 1205.00 or 1217.00 before resuming the decline. Regardless of whether Friday produces a second lower confirming close, some eventual intraday probe under Thursday’s lows is all but required.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap down under almost all prior lows filled a gap outstanding to 19.10. Despite gaps outstanding above, the pattern is likely also to print new lows under 19.00 before having a chance to recover.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Testing of the 129-16 sell signal produced fresh relative lows under 129-00. Closing lower Friday would confirm the retest of prior lows is underway, targeting 127-28.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Multiple tests of the 97.85 bounce limit already had lingered longer than optimal for a deeper pullback to 94.00 to remain likely. Thursday’s fresh relative highs probed the rally’s original 98.35 target to test 99.00, signaling the rally was more likely resuming, next targeting 101.50.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The three-day consolidation resisted by 4.30 reacted up sharply after Thursday’s EIA report, testing 4.45. Testing the 4.48-4.51 target area without closing above it would start to suggest a top was forming.

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