Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil has extended its drop to fully test the noise range around a constructive 61.8% retracement of the recent rally leg. Any lower would suggest that peace is breaking out all over. And peace is not breaking out all over.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The 80.50 pullback limit wasn’t even attacked before Thursday’s rally extended into the weekend. Closing above 81.00 would target 81.66.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s second consecutive lower close confirms a new downleg is underway, targeting 1.3540 and potentially 1.3485.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1232.50 target’s overnight test included 1237.00 before dipping back into Friday’s open. Its intraday retest extended to also fulfill most of the target’s upper-range to 1240.00. Potential for extending to 1270.00 now depends upon holding 1232.50 as support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Interestingly, only shallow strength accompanied Gold’s rally Friday. But the afternoon continued firming back up toward the overnight highs, still giving the recovering a benefit of a doubt.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still awaiting a signal for momentum reversing up, or for a new downleg to be forming. But the 127-28 target’s test and retest did suggest the downleg had ended.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s retracement of 61.8% of the rally leg wasn’t a buy signal, but it did warn that Friday’s action could then be predictive. Its fresh lows down to 94.00 must now hold for any recovery leg to be credible.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initially dipping to 4.20 filled the gap back to Tuesday’s close before EIA triggered a surge back above Thursday’s high and through 4.33 resistance. Holding above 4.33 would be likely also to extend back to recent highs.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight If the year’s first trading session is any indication, then this year will not reward complacency. Thursday’s abrupt resolutions to the recent Euro topping and Gold bottoming patterns might still be absorbed Friday. But entering the week without rejecting Thursday’s action will confirm their new trends are underway.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Gapping up Thursday helps to confirm a bottom is forming, which will continue being the premise so long as 80.50 now holds as support.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Three sessions of consolidating at resistance proved to be distribution when Thursday’s open gapped down sharply to the prior bounce’s origin. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm a new downleg underway potentially targeting 1.3500. Otherwise, a bounce must hold 1.3695 to maintain this break’s momentum.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s gap up extended through the 1217.00 resistance whose test had produced Tuesday’s new low. The 1232.50 target remains intact so long as 1221.00 now holds as support. The target can be tested up to 1237.00-1240.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher without delay Thursday would have been credible for putting in a bottom. Gapping up sharply fulfilled the condition. Extending higher without delay Friday would be credible for extending the recovery to 20.70.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s retest of the decline’s 127-28 target was recovered back above the 128-06 to test 128-26. This suggests that a bottom is forming, which would be signaled by closing higher Friday.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh lows Thursday extended down sharply, too deeply to be considered only a corrective dip. Any potential for resuming the rally will require another accumulative consolidation pattern to form, and then to trigger. Thursday’s 95.50 low is a 61.8% retracement of the rally from 92.15, so trying to extend down Friday morning might stretch the rubber band too tightly not to snap back up. The delayed EIA report will be released Friday morning.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s year-ending fresh low was seemingly rejected by Thursday’s new year gap up, yet again missing a second consecutive lower close that would have been bearish. The inside day retraced only 61.8% of Tuesday’s drop to 4.33, so extending any higher Friday would credible for surging sharply intraday. Closing under 4.23 Friday would be very difficult to recover without yet forming another accumulation pattern. The delayed EIA report will be released Friday morning.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Year-end fluctuation might be confused with elasticity. But it’s not that opinion is isn’t fixed. It’s that opinion  can be irrelevant at year-end.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s flat-to-higher ranging is in-line with Monday’s retracement being only that, and not a new downleg. But upside follow-through is needed for confirmation.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping down Tuesday undermined Monday’s retracement, but 1.3550-1.3570 held as support to avoid signaling the downleg was yet underway.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday night’s recovery back up to 1205.00 confirmed the post-close drop was only noise. Sponsorship of Tuesday’s pre-open plunge to new lows at 1181.40 wasn’t any stronger handed, which recovering to 1214.00 confirmed. A close above 1205.00 was missed, but extending higher without delay would confirm the 1232.50 target remains intact.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
After plunging to almost 18.70 Tuesday morning, a temporary recovery back above 19.70 dipping into the close. Extending higher without delay Thursday would be entirely credible for putting in a bottom.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s bounce above Friday’s high had begun from too low to gain traction, leaving the door open for Tuesday’s drop to fulfill the unfinished business below at 127-28 down to 127-23. The drop’s momentum remains intact so long as 128-06 holds as resistance.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s gap down tested the rally’s original 98.35 target as support down to 98.15. Closing above 98.75 would signal the rally had resumed. There is otherwise no active signal.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Neutralizing the gap back up to last Thursday’s close on Monday neutralized an attraction above, which didn’t inhibit Tuesday’s drop to fresh lows. The pattern doesn’t yet contain two consecutive lower close that prevent recovering.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Friday’s price action was all rebutted Monday, but only enough to threaten reversing direction, and not quite enough to actually reverse. That often leaves no room or time for delaying the original price action’s intent — whether that was trending, or a correction — from extending in its original direction.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s recovery attempt was retraced entirely Monday back to Friday’s post-open lows, which was also 61.8% back to Thursday’s night’s lows. This is the optimal pullback limit, which would be confirmed by resuming the rally without further delay or backing-and-filling.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Already closing under 1.3750-1.3770 Friday was concerning for possibly being premature to reversing momentum down. In fact, Monday’s bounce retraced much of Friday’s reaction down from its gap up. Almost any delay in reversing back under 1.3750-1.3770 would be likely to extend back up to 1.3833 — where a new upleg could be triggered if not rejected intraday.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting down from Friday’s test of 1217.00 resistance, Sunday night’s slide pushed Monday’s open to gap down at its 1205.00 pullback limit. But Friday’s bounce also confirmed Thursday’s break above 1205.00, requiring there to eventually be at least a third higher close before sponsorship can reverse momentum down. So, quickly rejecting Monday’s late probe under 1205.00 support is all but required to keep alive the bounce’s ultimate 1232.50 target.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing slightly higher Sunday night was dragged down by Gold’s difficulty, gapping down Monday and extending to test 19.70 support. Tuesday’s open should reject Monday’s dip without delay if the rally’s momentum remains intact.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s bounce did probe above Friday’s 128-23 interim high, but not by gapping open above it. So, the decline’s momentum remains intact, targeting a test of fresh lows at 127-28, so long as 129-00 isn’t recovered.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s rally to within 75 cents of the pattern’s 101.50 target was concerning for having waited so long since the breakout before behaving aggressively. Sunday night’s dip back down to “lower prior highs” extended slightly lower intraday Monday to test 99.60, and then lower to test 99.15. The pattern cannot tolerate much delay in resuming the rally.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[ROLLING COVERAGE FORWARD FROM JAN TO FEB] Friday’s probe under the 4.42-4.45 pullback limit (basis Feb, 4.39-4.42 basis Jan) was reacted to Monday by an “inside day” attacking Friday’s close. Closing above 4.50 would be likely to resume the rally.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil finally behaved in-line with its buy signal, although delayed aggression can be only so aggressive. Its rally probably wouldn’t absorb a lower close, nor would Gold’s rally which was just confirmed before the weekend.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s gap down held prior lows and trended back up intraday to close at session highs. There is no requirement to retest Friday’s low, but the recovery must be extending before noon Monday to be credible.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
A single break lower had never been confirmed, and two subsequent sessions were unpredictive and offered no new information to the pattern. The pattern’s vulnerability to backing-and-filling was exploited by a spike up. Closing back under 1.3800 confirmed the spike was only a retest of prior highs. Closing back at 1.3750-1.3780 began to signal momentum reversing down. That was a little too deep too soon to be reliable — reacting down so deeply a little slower would have been more bearish.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s second higher consecutive close confirmed Thursday’s break above 1205.00 targeting 1232.50, which already tested 1217.00 Thursday.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs Friday still hesitated pessimistically upon filling the gap back to prior highs, which tends to be bullish from a contrarian perspective.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Friday to within 3 ticks of the longstanding 127-28 target reacted up to 128-00, but that was retraced into the afternoon’s return back to session lows.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh highs Friday were finally aggressive, the first time since signaling the rally had resumed. The 101.50 target was attacked to within 75 cents, which remains in-play so long as no session were to close negative first, which would signal a false breakout had peaked.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Failing to recover Tuesday’s 4.45 high Thursday prevented signaling that the 4.39-4.42 pullback limit had held each session’s tests. Gapping down ahead of the EIA report was later retraced enough to fill the gap back to Thursday’s close, but only temporarily before dipping back under 4.39. Closing above 4.45 is needed to reinstate any upside momentum.

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