Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold started out the week with a deep plunge, but it was really only a continuation of the pattern described Friday. The long-awaited retest of the lows is back on.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s fresh high attacking 80.50 was retraced into negative territory. The 81.05 bounce target remains in-play, but now pullbacks must hold 80.20.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s bounce to 1.3430 peaked under the 1.3465-1.3475 bounce limit to maintain the 1.3275 objective below.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s sharp decline instantly compensated for the delay from Friday’s undue optimism that pointlessly avoided probing under 1666.00 intraday. The 1637.40 objective is in-play so long as bounces now hold 1653.00-1654.00 resistance.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday fulfilled the aggressive slide targeting 30.90, likely to extend down to fulfill the 30.25 objective.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday did not immediately resume dropping under 143-04. But only firming slightly and remaining under prior highs intraday does need a little more obvious strength to confirm whether the bounce is first likely to test 145-03.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s sharp rally only returned back to the range’s 97.00 upper-end. Still this is another opportunity — if not the final opportunity — for a breakout quickly targeting 99.00.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Not yet reacting up sharply Friday from 3.25 support made the recent weakness much likelier to extend down to new lows. In fact, Monday’s open gapped down to the 3.21 prior low. It was recovered entirely, allowing one more temporary opportunity Tuesday to launch an upleg above 3.33, and to avoid becoming a much deeper downleg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold seems to have reached an inflection point, both in price and in time. Optimistically avoiding a touch of prior lows Friday, despite gapping down and ranging almost exclusively in negative territory, should either compensate for the delay Monday by capitulating downward, or else rally sharply to prove Friday’s buyers right for having absorbed the day’s sellers (the past week’s sellers, too, for that matter).

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday night’s dip bounced off of its 80.05 pullback limit to retest Thursday’s 80.35 highs, leaving 81.05 in-play so long as the pullback limit continues to hold.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s opening weakness extended down slightly into the weekend. The second consecutive lower close that all but requires there to be a third lower close — not necessarily consecutive, although currencies do tend to duplicate Friday’s behavior on Mondays. The next lower support at 1.3275 is in-play so long as bounces hold 1.3465-1.3475.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday afternoon’s slide back to its morning’s lows extended into Friday’s opening gap down. Despite the extended momentum, optimism prevented even touching Thursday’s lows. Intraday bounces peaked repeatedly upon testing 1669.00-1670.00 resistance, closing back at the 1666.00 session lows. The decline should extend down forcibly Monday without delay if it intends to extend down at all. The entire bearish scenario depends largely upon holding 1675.00 as resistance.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s narrowing range that optimistically avoided even touching Thursday’s 31.30 low suggests that any lower low Monday will slide aggressively back to 30.90 and lower.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s probes above 143-18 weren’t credible, which Friday’s opening slide to 143-00 confirmed. The test of 143-04 held, and narrow ranging around 143-18 through the afternoon avoided either extending higher or reacting down. Not resuming the drop almost immediately Monday would have potential for extending the corrective bounce temporarily to 145-03.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s opening surge peaked under 97.00 and reversed back under Thursday’s 95.55 low. The price action had no predictive value, other than to further solidify the current range’s attraction, which will undermine or abbreviate the next attempt to trend away from it.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday’s weakness wasn’t substantial, and barely avoided touching the critical 3.25 support, but its timing all but requires the rally attempt to resume Monday without further delay to avoid becoming a downleg targeting new lows.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Was Gold’s temporary plunge Thursday morning a “warning shot across the bow” at bulls? Its recovery back to prior highs expended a lot of energy without gaining any traction for the effort (i.e. closing well under that resistance).

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s retest of the bounce’s 79.85 target gave way sharply Thursday instead of first retesting the decline’s target. So long as 80.05 now holds as support, the rally is next targeting 81.05.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The retest of the rally’s 1.3640 target never happened before its reaction down extended much further Thursday to 1.3375. The expectation to resolve down regardless now seems underway so long as bounces hold the rally’s 1.3465-1.3475 prior target.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday morning’s plunge to 1663.40 was recovered back to prior highs in positive territory at 1683.90, only to react back down to attack 1669.00-1670.00. Extending lower Friday morning should attack or probe 1660.00 before any further consolidation that might delay retesting 1637.40.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The break under uptrending support Thursday down to 31.30 was recovered to test the trendline’s 31.77 break before reversing back down to almost touch the morning’s low.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s bounce had held 143-18 resistance to avoid signaling that momentum was reversing up. Fresh highs to 144-06 Thursday during the stock market decline were relatively subdued. Back under 143-18 would resume the decline targeting 141-26.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s open needed to extend higher immediately above 97.00 for Wednesday’s recovery from 95.00 to be bullish. But the opening test of 97.00 reacted down sharply to 95.55. Almost any further delay in rallying through 97.00 would all but require testing 94.20 next.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s recovery to the upper-end of the 3.37-3.43 resistance was reversed Thursday morning in reaction to the EIA report. Its drop to 3.28 .must be recovered to close back above 3.36 Friday to prevent a new downleg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas is creeping higher into what soon should be an obvious rally, if there is any further improvement ahead, at all. Meanwhile, Crude Oil has a chance to extend its own rally.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s fresh high extended the corrective bounce, but essentially only ranged around the bounce’s 79.85 target that was already met Tuesday.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s bounce did not extend Wednesday. Rather it was retraced to Tuesday’s intraday low. The bounce must resume without delay to avoid extending the pullback under Monday’s lows.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s close while still testing 1675.00 left Wednesday’s session vulnerable to beginning a trend, but not yet signaling it. The intraday range testing either end of 1670.00-1680.00 did not signal a resolution, either.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s narrow range offered no new information.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s return to the 142-21 prior lows all but required breaking lower, presumably targeting 141-26. Wednesday’s bounce to 143-18 tried to forestall that downleg, but was still testing its resistance at the close.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Not rallying immediately Wednesday above 97.00 made the pullback likely to extend. Despite the open gapping down to fresh lows attacking 95.00, an immediate rally recovered to 97.00. Closing above 97.00 would have been bullish. Extending higher immediately Thursday would get a benefit of the doubt again, but there otherwise remains potential for extending the pullback.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s late probe above the 3.36 buy signal extended immediately Wednesday to attack 3.47. Extending higher to also recover 3.53 would confirm a new rally leg underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond gapped down to attack last week’s lows, underscoring that Monday’s recovery effort had stopped short of credulity. But there is still a burden of proof on sellers to follow-through Wednesday.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The bounce’s 79.85 target was attacked both overnight and intraday Tuesday. Back under 79.40 should signal the retest underway of the decline’s 79.05 target.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The pullback’s 1.3465-1.3475 target was met Monday night, triggering a reaction up to 1.3600 Tuesday, targeting a retest of the rally’s 1.3635-1.3640 target, probably to 1.3680.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Closing AT 1675.00 Monday undermined buyers only enough for Tuesday’s surge to 1687.00 to react down sharply to probe under 1669.00. Still testing AT 1675.00 Monday’s close prevented the reaction down from gaining traction. Tuesday’s close was again testing 1675.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s narrow ranging avoided extending in either direction. But it did retest 32.00 again. Any further delay in breaking higher should soon break lower, if not already breaking lower at Wednesday’s open.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s failure to close above 143-18 wouldn’t have been a problem had it not been probed intraday. But it was, so the consequence was to gap down Wednesday under 143-04 and to probe under 142-26. Any lower close Wednesday would confirm that 141-26 is in-play.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s gap under 97.00 might have been “ineffectual pessimism,” mostly since it failed to extend down intraday, but also because Tuesday gapped back up. Tuesday’s gap up failed to extend higher, suggesting that it might be “ineffectual optimism.” The alternating sequence tends to favor the latter setup, so immediate strength Wednesday would be credible for extending the rally to 99.00.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The 3.36 buy signal was tested Tuesday, and essentially still being tested through the close. Immediate strength Wednesday would be credible for launching a rally leg.

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