Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Monday’s big reaction among currencies after they tested their targets Friday does suggest that a durable extreme has printed. But that extreme (i.e. Friday’s extreme) should still be retested.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s open gapped up above Friday’s range. It’s not an Island, but it does suggest that a bounce is underway to 79.85. Friday’s test of the decline’s 79.05 target is likely to be repeated, and is capable of forming a durable bottom.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s open gapped down under Friday’s range. It’s not an Island, but it does suggest that a pullback is underway to the rally’s 1.3465-1.3475 prior target. Friday’s test of the rally’s 1.3635-1.3640 target is likely to be repeated, and is capable of forming a durable top.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Gapping Monday down to probe briefly under 1665.00 support and then bouncing to test 1475.00 resistance — still testing 1475.00 at the close — failed again to signal that trending either way had resumed.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s gap down expended too much energy to extend down any further. Its reaction filled the gap back to Friday’s 31.90 close without closing above it. The next trending attempt is likely to extend in that direction.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s gap up immediately rejected Friday’s close under 142-26. Its reaction up probed above 143-18, but was still testing it into the close instead of recovering it. Buyers gained no traction for their effort.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The repeated testing of 97.00 support had held Friday, but Monday’s open gapped down under it to test 96.00. Tuesday’s open must reject this immediately by gapping up back above 97.00, or else a deeper dip to 94.20 is probably underway.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) While waiting for the potential to trigger a buy signal above 3.36, Monday’s dip retested the pullback’s 3.25 target. The test held, but still no buy signal has triggered.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Friday’s Employment Situation report had quite an effect on Currencies and Gold, which swung widely during the morning. Will Monday trend, or just be spent absorbing Friday’s shock to the system? Regardless, not trending any further would suggest that these extremes will hold for some time.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The 79.05 target was attacked ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Its  reaction down to 78.91 was recovered, and the balance of the session ranged around 79.05. No lower target is in-play.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The 1.3635-1.3640 target was already being probed ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Volatility around it touched 1.3715. Now back under 1.3635 would signal momentum reversing down.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Despite rallying sharply to attack Wednesday’s 1685.00 highs up to 1683.00, the reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report sent price plummeting again to 1662.50. And despite probing back above the 1675.00 bounce limit intraday, closing back under 1669.00-1670.00 confirmed the rally attempt’s rejection. Still, a second consecutive lower close was avoided, which would have signaled the new downleg underway.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday morning’s rally was retraced entirely, keeping alive potential for the pullback to reach its 30.25 objective.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Still testing 143-04 resistance at Thursday’s close prevented having any confidence in an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up on Friday’s Employment Situation report from gaining traction. The reaction up did probe above 143-18 to 144-13, but still reversed back down to test 143-04 and under 142-26 to put into play 141-26 so long as 143-04 is not recovered.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Repeated dipping to 97.00 never gained traction, and a recovery extended Friday back up to test the 98.25 highs, leaving the 99.00 target intact.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s test of 3.36 resistance didn’t fair any better Friday, and its recovery is still needed to trigger a new rally leg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s bearish scenario remains intact, with Wednesday’s sudden surge being retraced entirely Thursday.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) A fresh low Thursday probed slightly under WEdnesday’s low to test 79.15, nearing the 79.05 target that remains in-play so long as 79.40 isn’t recovered.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s early dip was recovered to a fresh high attacking 1.3600 a little closer than Wednesday, but the session essentially only ranged narrowly around 1.3580 resistance. Now pullbaks must hold 1.3505 to maintain potential for the rally extending to 1.3635-1.3640.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) After Wednesday’s sudden rally from 1663.00 to 1685.00 had stopped short of proving its sponsorship was strong hands, Thursday’s reversal under 1677.00 signaled as much. Extending down under 1669.00-1670.00 signaled momentum reversing down, eventually touching 1658.40. A second consecutive lower close on Friday would confirm that 1637.40‘s retest is in-play.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s rally to 32.25 was retraced entirely back to 31.12, resuming the pullback targeting 30.25.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s probe above 143-04 to 143-24 did not decisively recover 143-18, so a bullish reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report cannot be assured. But a retest of 142-26 that recovers 143-04 could rally sharply intraday. Closing back under 142-26 would next target 141-26.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s test of 98.25 was retraced modestly Thursday, without extending down, so the 99.00 target remains intact.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s gap up from testing the pullback’s 3.25 target Tuesday stopped short of recovering 3.36 to signal a new upleg underway. Thursday’s pessimistic dip to 3.25 ahead of the morning’s EIA report was recovered to fresh highs at 3.40, but 3.36 was still being tested through the afternoon to still avoid signaling a new upleg underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s surge Wednesday tried to undermine the bearish scenario. Good job. But the bullish scenario remains suspect. Meanwhile, the long bond held a test of its target, allowing it to greet the Employment Situation report in bounce mode.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Rather than immediately reject Tuesday’s break lower, Wednesday’s gap down extended to fresh lows testing 79.25, targeting 79.05.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s break higher wasn’t rejected immediately Wednesday, and instead extended to fresh highs attacking 1.3600, targeting 1.3635-1.3640 so long as 1.3460 now holds as support.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s opening surge immediately recovered Tuesday’s high and 1670.00 to undermine the downleg’s momentum. The bounce could test 1687.00-1691.00 before considering it to be a new upleg. Otherwise, closing back under 1677.00 would suggest the bounce had ended, and back under 1670.00 would resume the decline targeting a test of 1637.40.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The corrective bounce extended to test 32.25, which could prove very bearish if extended up to 32.50 without first completing the pullback down to 30.25.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s retracement back to Monday’s 143-04 lows extended down Wednesday to probe the 142-26 target down to 142-19. Its reaction up on the FOMC statement probed back above 143-04 to rob sellers of their traction. Closing back above 143-18 should signal momentum reversing up, potentially greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report in rally mode.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s pre-open probe of fresh highs tested 98.25. Not printing above 98.00 intraday suggests that pessimism remains alive and well, enough so that squeezing outstanding shorts can fulfill the minimum 99.00 target.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s gap up immediately recovered 3.29 to signal the pullback had held its 3.25 target. The 3.36 confirmation was only attacked.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond’s potential corrective bounce was cut short Tuesday by a return to its lows. Perhaps the shrinking window preceding Friday’s Employment Situation Report will be used forming a better bottom. Bouncing Wednesday would suggest the correction scenario remains intact. Meanwhile, Natural Gas may have completed its own correction, fulfilling its pullback objective. The next move should be productive.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Recent ranging around 79.85 broke lower Tuesday to test 79.60. Unless rejected without delay Wednesday, a new low targeting 79.05 is in-play.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s close above 1.3465-1.3475 is targeting 1.3635-1.3640 unless rejected Wednesay without delay.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Gapping up Tuesday from Monday’s shallow probe of fresh lows — instead of simply firming, or recovering intraday from a fresh low — probably prevented buyers from gaining traction while sellers refueled.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s bounce up to 31.25 left outstanding the attraction down to 30.25 support before a reliable recovery attempt could begin.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Extending above Monday’s 143-18 bounce limit Tuesday to 144-03 only stretched the rubber band back as its reaction down attacked Monday’s 143-03 low, suggesting the 142-26 target remains in-play.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s open was the best effort yet at resuming the rally to 99.00. Not gapping up for the first time in three sessions allowed buyers to gain traction on the way to 97.75. The rally remains intact so long as pullbacks hold 97.10-97.25.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The extended un-refueled rally reached its minimum 3.25 corrective target Tuesday. Closing back above 3.29 would start to suggest momentum was reversing up, confirmed above 3.36, to at least retest the 3.60 high if not also trend through it. Closing back under 3.16 would take off the table any such recovery potential before forming some other accumulative pattern.

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