Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s last plunge last week did hold support, but its recovery has become slow to materialize. Friday offers one more opportunity to launch a rally, but it must be obvious by the close.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s gap down to test 79.50 was recovered back into positive territory and extended to fresh highs above 79.79 that now target 80.20 so long as 79.69 holds as support.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The 1.3305 corrective bounce target was attacked Thursday before reacting down into negative territory under 1.3225. Closing any lower would launch a new downleg targeting 1.3080.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The recovery pattern should have produced a more substantial recovery above 1657.00 by now, instead of only ranging around 1660.00. Not extending up sharply early Friday — preferably closing above 1675.00 — would more likely attack 1652.00, if not also close under it to target fresh lows under 1635.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s late-morning surge to test 30.50 was unable to cleanly recover above the 30.25 prior highs. It must hold as support to maintain potential for extending the bounce up to 31.65.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Three days of ranging around the 147-12 corrective bounce limit resolved up Thursday while stocks fell sharply. The flight-to-quality attacked 148-16, and now a close back under 148-00 would target 147-00.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Fresh highs up to 91.44 Thursday were reversed back into negative territory. No second consecutive higher close means Wednesday’s surge was not confirmed as launching a new upleg. Closing above Wednesday’s 91.00-91.30 highs would restart the process and then require a second consecutive higher close the following day. Closing back under 89.30 would signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s gap down followed Wednesday’s gap down, with neither gaining any traction for their efforts. This is essentially “ineffectual pessimism,” and suggests the recent false starts have been chipping away at resistance to launch a rally. That said, I would only consider buying strength, and not weakness.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil got into the holiday spirit Wednesday, a little late in more ways than one, as the reaction up must avoid any lower close.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) After teasing it Thursday, the 79.79 corrective bounce target was met Friday. And tested further Monday. Its reaction back down to 79.50 was largely recovered. Closing under 79.55 would target 79.30 and 79.05. But another probe above 79.79 would target 80.20.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The 1.3140 target was never tested, and not even attacked. Meanwhile, the reaction down from 1.3313 was retraced by 61.8% to test 1.3265. Any higher would target 1.3305, whose break would target new highs. Under 1.3196 would resume the decline.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The extended consolidation around 1657.00 was extended Wednesday to attack 1669.00. The session returned to 1660.00, but did not close under 1657.00 where the recovery would be rejected.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The bounce potential to 31.65 signaled Friday has not yet extended, but has meanwhile absorbed selling pressure back down to 29.85.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s dip back into the 147-00/147-12 corrective target area was rejected somewhat Wednesday by firming. But the session ultimately only ranged around 147-12.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Avoiding a second consecutive lower close Monday all but marginalized sellers. Firming back to 89.20 over the holiday launched a surge through 91.00 Wednesday. Now pullbacks to 90.05-90.30 are likely to hold, if the rally is to extend.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s rejection of Friday’s recovery did not gain traction, but there is no signal in-play to trend either way.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s reaction up from support nearly sealed a bottom. But that’s what Mondays are for.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) the 79.79 corrective bounce target was nearly met by Friday’s gap up that extended sharply higher intraday. It remains in-play so long as 79.55 holds as support.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s reaction down from retesting 1.3313 extended down Friday to 1.3170. The initial 1.3140 target remains in-play so long as 1.3225 is not recovered.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s test of the 1636.00-1639.00 area was repeated somewhat overnight before Friday’s rally back up to and through 1652.00-1657.00. The range’s upper-end was still being tested throughout the afternoon. Closing Monday above 1665.00-1667.00 would confirm momentum having reversed up.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Holding 29.50 as support suggests a bounce underway targeting at least 31.65.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Two consecutive shallow tests of the 147-00/147-12 bounce target’s lower-end kept alive potential for probing the range more thoroughly. Friday’s gap up to the range’s upper-end held its test. Despite extending at one point up to 147-23, the strength still seemed subdued relative to the stock market decline, suggesting its bounce was only temporary.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s retest of 90.25 resistance was rejected by Friday’s break back under 89.65, which extended down to test 88.00. Another test of 86.80 is likely so long as 88.88 now holds as resistance. Avoiding a second consecutive lower close Monday would all but marginalize buyers, so look out above if the reversal down fails.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s probe of Tuesday’s high all but required that Friday extend higher sharply, or else a rally would be unlikely. Trending up immediately Monday could serve by proxy for Friday’s sideways range.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Symmetrical Patterns are neat, because they often break falsely in one direction and then reverse more substantially in the opposite direction. That’s the pattern that launched Gold’s renewed plunge Thursday — after Wednesday failed to confirm Tuesday’s plunge. Overkill?

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s 79.09 gap low was filled Thursday. A bounce tried to recover back into positive territory and was still testing Wednesday’s 79.35 high. Now any higher close would trigger a rally to 79.79 or 80.25.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The structure including Wednesday’s 1.3313 gap high was attacked Thursday to 1.3308, close enough to qualify as filling it. Potential to a fresh high at 1.3330 was not fulfilled before dipping back into negative territory under Wednesday’s 1.3245 low. Now any lower close would trigger a corrective dip targeting 1.3140 or 1.3040.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s non-confirmation session was nonetheless followed by another plunge Thursday to 1636.00, rivaling Tuesday’s $35 dive. Having originated from an overnight Symmetrical Triangle, closing back above 1652.00-1657.00 would signal the drop had been absorbed, allowing a bounce to either 1700.00 or 1717.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s plunge extended the decline considerably below its 30.90 target to 29.63. A bounce to 31.65 should follow so long as 29.50 holds as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s shallow corrective bounce was extended Thursday. up to 147-04. That’s still not very aggressive, but it was reversed back into negative territory. Closing under 146-06 would trigger at least a retest of the 145-18 low.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday morning’s pullback recovered to probe Wednesday’s 90.25-90.33 highs — but only slightly, up to 90.55. RSI diverged negatively and Wednesday’s highs were still being tested. Despite the rally’s hesitation, not closing back under 89.65 Friday would allow the rally to extend, with potential up to 99.00.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s gap up rejected Wednesday’s semi-Island, resuming Tuesday’s lackluster rally attempt. Tuesday’s 3.45 high was probed, and there is no bullish reason to further delay rallying aggressively higher into the weekend.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold didn’t extend down Wednesday, while Silver did extend down — sharply. It’s not divergent price action, but one more day of anything similar would make Silver likely to snap back up — sharply.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s gap down was recovered immediately to test Tuesday’s lows as resistance. While the gap down to fresh lows does require a retest, it’s not required to break lower, and would be vulnerable to producing at least a corrective bounce.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s open gapped up to a new recovery high just short of 1.3330 resistance before reversing back down to Tuesday’s 1.3252 high. At least the gap’s new high should attract price back up, where closing above 1.3330 would confirm a bigger upleg underway targeting 1.3640. Color me skeptical.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s plunge did not extend down Wednesday, and only briefly probed fresh lows. Not confirming the plunge with a second consecutive lower close means that a bottoming process can form. No lower close Thursday would suggest as much.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s fresh low should still extend down to 30.90 so long as 31.65 is not recovered.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The 147-00/147-14 corrective bounce target was tested to within 1 tick Wednesday. Its half-point reaction down was shallow. So long as 146-00/146-06 were to hold as support, the bounce target’s upper-end should at least be attacked.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The 88.80 bounce limit (basis Feb, 88.30 basis Jan) was tested Wednesday morning. Its test caused hesitation. But its test also soon provided an inflection point for a surge that extended up to 90.33. A second consecutive close would put into play 99.00. So, new lows would require immediately rejecting Wednesday’s surge.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s failure to extend above Friday and Monday’s ~3.37 highs undermined the breakout. Wednesday’s gap down back to last weeks’ lows around 3.28 now requires that another recovery attempt above 3.37 gain traction and extend to at least 3.58.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…