Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Tuesday failed its early attempts to undo Monday’s efforts. This was especially true with Crude Oil’s bounce back to its bounce limit, which was retraced back down to Monday’s low.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s initial weakness extended to fill the gap back down to Friday’s 79.40 close. Its support held, allowing an afternoon bounce that retraced 61.8% of the drop from recent highs.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s initial strength did not extend very far. And it was finally retraced into negative territory late in the day. But Tuesday’s extra gain up to 1.2983 allowed the reaction down to 1.2930 to hold a 61.8% retracement back to Monday’s 1.2902 low. Any immediate strength Wednesday would again be credible for extending higher.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s extension down from Friday’s peak $32 higher may have ended the drop faster than it was signaled. But that required immediately resuming the rally effort to validate Friday’s highs. Tuesday’s opening attempt was retraced back to unchanged, keeping alive the potential recovery, but still not allowing any dip into negative territory.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Apparently Monday did expend more selling pressure than could be expended so quickly. Tuesday’s open gapped up above Monday’s high. But a reversal dipped back into negative territory, threatening to close lower and confirm a new downleg was underway. Otherwise, back above 34.55 would trigger one final upleg targeting 35.40.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Despite retracing Tuesday’s gap up back into negative territory, the afternoon recovered to fresh highs at 148-13. This does not change the 147-04 sell signal, but back under 147-09 would offer an early warning that the sell signal should at least be probed.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s gap up tested the 93.00 bounce limit, but subsequent weakness held it, and kept in-play the next lower targets at 89.75 and 87.00.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Fresh highs tested 2.90 Tuesday for the first time in a week. Its recovery would resume the rally next targeting 3.25.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Friday’s pressures were retraced into the new week Monday. The shallowest reaction was Currencies, while Precious Metals and Crude Oil fell aggressively to reject Friday’s bounces.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s open gapped up to pierce last week’s high but never extended higher. The balance of the session ranged narrowly flat-to-lower. Early strength Tuesday could still extend higher, but otherwise an attack on recent lows remains likely.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Although Monday’s gap down to the 1.2920 area probed all of last week’s lows, the balance of the session ranged narrowly flat-to-higher. A lower close Tuesday would get a benefit of the doubt for extending down to 1.2750. Otherwise, almost any initial strength woul be credible for launching a retest of recent highs up to the 1.3200 area.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s gap down obviously failed to extend the rally immediately, which qualifies as beginning a downleg. The $32 drop from Friday’s 1790.00 high down to 1758.00 did expend a lot of energy very quickly without actually gaining traction closing under the 1760.00 area. So, the drop may have ended as quickly as it began, or else its next resistance (e.g. 1814.00) should be rejected very quickly..

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Delaying the rally Monday essentially signals that a new downleg has begun. The sizable roundtrip from Friday’s 35.28 high down to 33.63 Monday may have expended more selling pressure than can be sustained so quickly. Unless the reversal down were confirmed Tuesday by a second consecutive lower close, the 35.40 should still be tested.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s inhibition to resume the decline was rewarded by a fresh high Monday. Thursday’s 147-19 high was probed up to 147-28, but the session essentially ranged around Thursday’s high. This rally’s pattern won’t trigger a buy signal, as its sponsorship is weak-handed, but now a higher sell signal than 146-06 can trigger back under 147-04.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Having held its 93.00 bounce limit Friday, fresh lows remained in-play down to 89.75 and 87.00. Monday’s gap down under Thursday’s low resumed the drop, and 93.00 must still hold as resistance.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday missed an opportunity to close above 2.90 and resume the rally. Its recovery Tuesday may be given a benefit of the doubt, but it is not any more likely to trigger.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Precious Metals needed to resume their rallies without delay Friday. Both Silver and Gold did. Apparently, only one was serious about it.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s gap down extended just enough to fill the gap back to Wednesday’s 79.10 close. That’s just optimistic enough to suggest a durable rally leg has yet to form.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s gap up firmed a little before ranging sideways through the day, stopping pessimistically short of filling the gap back up to Wednesday’s 1.3080 close. Any early weakness Monday could extend back to 1.3110 and 1.3200.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s extra dip required the rally to resume immediately Friday, if at all. It did, gapping above prior highs to probe fresh highs up to 1790.00 intraday. Almost all of which was retraced by an afternoon plunge back to Thursday’s late 1772.00 highs. The same requirement applies to Monday as it did to Friday, which is to rally without delay or else begin a downleg.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s extra dip required the rally to resume immediately Friday, if at all. It did, gapping above prior highs to probe fresh highs up to 35.26 intraday. All of it was retraced by an afternoon plunge into negative territory down to 34.37. The session recovered to unchanged levels, facing the same requirement Monday as it did Friday, to rally without delay or else begin a downleg.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s early weakness held its 146-06 support and bounced to attack Thursday’s 147-06 opening gap within 2 ticks. Back under 146-06 would still trigger a downleg targeting fresh lows under 144-10.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s gap up soon settled back to consolidate at the 93.00 bounce limit. Closing Monday above Friday’s 93.85 high would rob the decline of its traction. Otherwise, 89.75 and 87.00 remain targeted next.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday morning’s rally was retraced 61.8% intraday. Closing above its 2.90 high Monday would trigger a new upleg targeting 3.25.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond had signaled already that this week’s bounce was temporary. Thursday’s action heightens the pattern’s vulnerability to reversing down. So, it’s interesting that no economic reports are scheduled before the weekend.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s gap up soon peaked. Its retracement held 79.40 support, so its test Friday could be the second part of a two-day peak, in place of a traditional one-day pattern that would have rejected the fresh high intraday..

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s gap down did not extend lower any more so than did Wednesday’s gap down. But Thursday’s session remained under pressure throughout. RSIs diverged positively into session lows, so fresh highs above 1.3200 would be triggered back above 1.3020.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday morning’s dive back under 1760.00 was recovered to back above 1770.00 — almost. Friday must maintain a breakout above the current consolidation range, or else the pattern will become very top-heavy, very quickly.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday morning’s momentary dive to 34.12 was retraced entirely back into positive territory. But what seems like strength will become weakness if Friday does not exploit the recovery by producing a fresh high close above 35.00.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s clsoe back at/under Tuesday’s high robbed the bounce of its momentum. It did not signal momentum reversing down. So, Thursday’s gap up was doomed to failure, and it retraced entirely. Now closing under 146-06 would trigger a drop targeting new lows under 144-10, and bounces meanwhile should hold 147-10.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Having slid recently so substantially, Thursday’s session only ranged narrowly. The 93.00 bounce limit was never attacked, let alone touched.At least 89.75 should be touched, and its break would confirm that 87.00 is in-play.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s gap up into a narrowly ranging flat session offered no new directional clues. There was no requirement to reject or extend Wednesday’s reversal. It is still too soon in the pattern to calculate a lower buy signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s failure to recover Tuesday helped to confirm the Double Top pattern was taking control. Wednesday’s $4 drop to fresh lows confirmed, too.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s early aggressive strength should have been credible for extending sharply higher intraday. But there was no post-open buying, and a quick reversal back into negative territory eventually fell to Tuesday’s lows. Now a recovery above 79.40 would be likely to extend sharply higher intraday. Fresh lows could extend to new lows for the trend.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s opening dip almost immediately bottomed and began reversing up into positive territory. Tuesday’s intraday highs held as resistance, stopping pessimistically short of ever touching Monday’s range, still being vulnerable to touching fresh highs 1.3200 above.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s recovery back above 1770.00 from Monday’s dive under 1760.00 did not extend higher Wednesday. Not a problem. Not if Thursday does close at fresh highs, which would resume the rally targeting 1814.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) A rogue dive attacked support, but recovered back into positive territory, maintaining potential for extending to the 35.40 target

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s initial strength was retraced entirely to back under Tuesday’s highs. This should clear the way for a drop to fresh lows under 146-00 on whatever catalyst (Thursday’s econ calendar is pretty dangerous), where there will be potential to launch a better bounce to above 150-00.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s shallow temporary bounce kept alive the bearish Double Top pattern. Wednesday’s $4 tumble confirms it. Closing above 93.00 would rob sellers of their traction for a bigger bounce up to 95.50. But otherwise 87.00 and 85.00 are targeted.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s extension of the decline signaled that no buy signal would be valid Wednesday. Wednesday’s gap up to 2.85 was retraced entirely back down to Tuesday’s 2.74 lows. Now a buy signal would be triggered back above 2.83.

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