Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold and the Euro each reacted up sharply Friday from targets that were met at Thursday’s lows. Despite having expended so much energy so quickly — actually, because of it — their recoveries cannot afford to hesitate extending higher or else sellers may regain traction.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s fresh high had failed to extend beyond the open. Friday’s brief opening blip-up reacted differently, by plunging back under the prior week’s highs. Closing under 83.35 would reverse momentum down, targeting 81.85.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) An opening blip-down retested the 1.2180 target that had contained Thursday’s sellers. Its reaction up surged steeply back to 1.2265, testing two prior sessions’ lows. Pullbacks to only 1.2210 can still be absorbed to continue forming a bottom, which would be sealed back above 1.2270.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Although Thursday’s $20 bounce from testing its 1555.00 target still ended the day in negative territory, the recovery extended sharply higher Friday to 1596.50. The rally may extend higher to test 1611.00, but back under 1582.00 would trigger another downleg — this time targeting new lows at 1543.00or 1532.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s recovery back into positive territory probed higher highs Friday. The bounce could still extend up to 27.75 without yet signaling a new rally leg underway.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The week-long extended controlled uptrend met its first challenge Friday on surging stocks. The reaction down was more abrupt than the rally, but not of any greater degree being less than 1 point. The close might not have cleanly recovered 151-00

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s fresh recovery highs probed above 86.50, and filled the week-old gap back to 87.00. Opening Monday above 87.75 would be the next available confirmation that the rally has resumed. Closing under 85.50 would all but require testing 82.50, and potentially 78.00.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Not closing Thursday above 2.89, despite probing above it intraday, prevented Friday from extending higher. In fact, 2.89 held as resistance Friday. Its break Monday would still be credible for resuming the rally, next targeting 3.15.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold and the Euro each met big targets at their lows Thursday. If their recent downtrends aren’t soon reversing up, then they’re probably extending down sharply.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s high had fulfilled the rally’s 87.35 minimum objective. Thursday’s open gapped up but never extended higher intraday. Meanwhile, the entire session ranged above prior highs. Closing under 83.60 would signal momentum reversing down.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The next lower objective under 1.2180 was met at Thursday’s low. The open had gapped down, and the targets reaction up did not recover positive territory. Closing back above 1.2245 would signal momentum reversing up.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s open gapped down $15 to quickly test the drop’s 1555.00 target by 50 cents. A recovery held 1570.00 resistance. Closing back under 1561.00 would resume the decline, next targeting 1542.00. There is otherwise room for a corrective bounce back up to 1574.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s gap down to 26.45 was retraced entirely into positive at 27.33. The gap back to Thursday’s open remains outstanding and likely to be filled so long as 27.33 were to hold as resistance.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s recovery of its knee-jerk reaction to FOMC Minutes back under 151-00 extended higher to test 151-20 Thursday. Its momentum remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 151-00 as support.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Despite gapping down Thursday from Wednesday’s closing test of 85.50, a bounce off of 84.21 recovered to probe back above 86.00. A new rally still needs a close above 86.50.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Further weakness down to 2.72 around Thursday’s EIA report was absorbed, allowing a bigger bounce back above 2.83. Even the 2.89 buy signal was probed. But it was not recovered through the close, so it did not trigger.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Reaction to Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC Minutes didn’t shake up other markets as much as it could have. Perhaps that is because so many markets were testing or attacking their near-term objectives. Watch the Dollar and the Euro for any sign of their recent trends inverting.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s failed probe of prior highs was never retraced enough for sellers to gain traction. Now Wednesday’s higher high cannot tolerate any retracement if the rally’s momentum intends to remain alive. That may be difficult since the rally’s 83.75 target was met intraday.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s negative reaction to FOMC probed fresh lows. The next lower objective is under 1.2180 if Thursday and Friday do not recover to fresh highs for the week. Considering the Dollar Basket having met its objective, the moves are definitely vulnerable to inverting.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1580.00 bounce limit held a test Wednesday before the FOMC reaction attacked Tuesday’s 1564.00 post-close low. The reaction off of it was premature, suggesting that sellers are still the strong hands.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s narrow ranging avoided probing under Tuesday’s post-close low. The optimism was unproductive, suggesting that sellers are still strong hands.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The knee-jerk reaction to FOMC news blipped-up to 151-24 and back down to test 151-00 support. A positive close retains the recovery’s momentum.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s fresh low was rejected by Wednesday’s gap up re-attacked the 86.50 bounce limit. The close was still testing the 85.50 buy signal back up to 86.00, so closing Thursday above 86.50 would confirm a new rally leg underway.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s close back under 2.83 was recovered Wednesday. But not immediately to reject its failure, and not yet back above 2.89 to trigger a rally.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s big reversal confirmed that Monday’s bounce was only a correction, and that a retest of the lows is in-play.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s 83.60 high was eventually probed Tuesday, but it held as resistance through the close to prevent buyers from gaining new traction. Its immediate recovery Wednesday would resume the rally next targeting 83.75. There is otherwise room down to 83.50 before buyers lose traction.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s corrective bounce resolved down Tuesday by gapping back to Friday’s 1.2281 low close. A brief bounce resolved down in new lows at 1.2246. Failing to hold 1.2250 as support would signal the drop was extending down, next targeting 1.1255 and potentially 1.8160. But a rally cannot be signaled until recovering 1.2313.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s corrective bounce extended even higher Tuesday to 1602.00. But the intraday reversal broke back under the 1584.00 sell signal to resume the decline, already testing 1564.00. A test of at least 1555.00 is in-play now so long as bounces were to hold 1580.00 as resistance

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s bounce to attack its 27.50 buy signal got no higher Tuesday as its reaction down probed under Friday’s 26.92 low.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s extension of the rally to 150-31 was oddly subdued considering its customary destination as a “flight-to-safety” and the stock market’s steep intraday reversal to probe fresh lows. But the rally’s momentum remains intact so long as pullbacks hold 150-06 as support.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s test of its 86.50 bounce limit to within 2 cents reacted down to fresh lows Tuesday under 84.00. Back above 85.50 would now signal the rally having resumed. There is otherwise room down to 82.05 before signaling a retest of 78.25.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s open back at 2.83 negated Monday’s recovery above it. A deeper pullback ended the day testing 2.76, so an almost immediate recovery back above 2.83 may be the only way to avoid a much deeper decline.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s rally Monday recovered quite a bit of the reaction down from last week’s highs. Almost any higher Tuesday would trap a lot of shorts, suggesting a big rally. The rally probably can’t extend without more news like that from Iran which triggered Monday’s pop.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s dip held the 83.35 pullback limit as support to maintain the rally’s momentum targeting 83.76.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) One day after fulfilling the long-awaited retest of Jun 1’s lows, Monday’s open gapped up a little and firmed a little further from there to test the original 1.2324 target as resistance. Buyers gained no traction for the effort.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s close under 1584.00 was tested Monday by probing above it to almost 1594.00. Friday’s highs held intraday, so back under 1584.00 would signal the decline had resumed.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Despite gapping up and firming to spend all of Monday in positive territory, 27.50 held as resistance through the close to prevent triggering a rally.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Last week’s recovery above 149-00 continued gaining traction Monday by closing above 150-06 and testing 150-23. The 153-04 target is in-play so long as 150-10 now holds as support. Meanwhile, a pullback can be absorbed down to 149-18 before signaling a new downleg underway.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Last week’s gap down from 87.00-88.00 to 84.50 never gained traction. The drop did require closing back above 86.50 to signal the rally had resumed, and Monday’s bounce tested it to within 2 cents. Its immediate recovery Tuesday would be likely to probe last week’s highs intraday.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday’s close under 2.83 was rejected by Monday’s gap up back above it. The intraday high held 2.89, which must be recovered to signal the rally has resumed. A bigger pullback otherwise has room down to 2.76.

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