Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s gap down Friday had to be dramatic to break the rally’s momentum already in-play. Rejecting Friday’s tumble immediately by resuming the rally Monday would be that much more credible. Otherwise, a retest of recent lows could soon be apparent.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s 83.50 high stopped short of retesting June’s 1’s 83.76 opening gap. Its test remains in-play so long as 83.35 holds as support.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s follow-through to Thursday’s resumption of the decline fulfilled the long-awaited retest of Jun 1’s opening gap 1.234 under its 1.2292 intraday low down to 1.2271. The next lower objective is under 1.2180.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s test of 1598.00 did not produce a recovery above 1613.00, leaving Friday’s session free to extend the decline. The open slid immediately to test the pivotal 1584.00, which ultimately broke lower in the afternoon. Its recovery Monday would rob sellers of their traction, but reversal otherwise remains intact and targeting 1550.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Despite having held 27.75 through Thursday’s close, Friday’s open slid sharply and extended lower to test 27.00. Now, recovering 27.50 would trigger a rally. Otherwise, at least a retest of 26.15-26.20 is underway.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s recovery was still testing 149-00 instead of recovering it to trigger a bigger rally underway. Friday’s open surged through it, and through its 149-18 to retest the 150-00 resistance that had contained Monday’s rally. So long as 149-18 holds as support, the rally is already signaled. But closing above 150-06 Monday would offer very helpful confirmation.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s narrow range was not in itself bearish. But that didn’t prevent Friday’s open from gapping down to trade the day ranging narrowly at 84.25-84.75. Closing above 86.50 would signal the rally had resumed. Closing under 83.35 would target at least 80.00, if not also 78.20.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Fresh highs up to 3.06 Friday morning reacted down sharply to test the 2.83 pullback limit. It was still being tested Friday afternoon. Back above 2.89 would signal the rally had resumed. There is otherwise room down to 2.76 before signaling at least a much bigger pullback underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight There was room for currencies to firm just a little more against the Dollar before resuming their declines. They didn’t need it — the Euro weakened over the holiday, plunging into Thursday’s open. And there’s long-outstanding unfinished  business below.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) No further dip was needed after Tuesday before launching a rally leg. Thursday’s open gapped up sharply and extended back to last week’s 83.07 high. So long as a close under 82.85 is avoided, the rally should extend to fill the gap back to June 1‘s 83.76 open, and to test its 83.94 intraday high.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The decline didn’t need any more room before resuming. Last week’s 1.2475 low was retraced by the open’s gap down from 1.2625. There is no bullish reason to further delay filling the gap back to June 1’s 1.2324 open, and to also probe under its 1.2292 intraday low.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s close under 1613.00 signals momentum reversing down, but still needs a second consecutive lower close to confirm 1598.00 and potentially much lower is targeted. The entire session ranged sideways below 1613.00, so closing above it Friday instead could be bullish.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Closing above 28.50 Thursday would have been bullish, but a gap down back under prior highs avoided it. At least 27.75 held as support, so a close above 28.50 would still target 30.00-30.35.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Holiday bounces tried to recover 149-00, as did Thursday’s open, probing it up to 149-12. But it was still being tested at Thursday’s close, which would have made a new rally leg obvious. Closing above 149-18 would still be bullish.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Although a fresh high had attacked 89.00 before Thursday’s open, intraday action only ranged narrowly under 88.00. Pullbacks now have room down to 86.00 before resuming the rally next targeting 91.10.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) No more dip was needed before trying to resume the rally. Thursday’s session extended back to prior highs to close above 2.95. A second consecutive higher close would confirm, and there is otherwise room for a dip down to 2.83.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas may be ready finally to resume its rally. It may have firmed Tuesday in sympathy with Crude Oil’s gains, but one more corrective dip should be its last.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s “inside day” made Tuesday likely only to range sideways since Friday’s drop was unlikely to resume. Tuesday’s narrow range held just above 81.70, whose test as support is capable of launching a rally leg.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Sideways trending back up to 1.2670 was likely after Monday’s close. Tuesday’s opening dip under Monday’s low bounced from 1.2570 to 1.2640, leaving a little more room above before presumably resuming the decline.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s “ineffectual pessimism” under 1602.00 was likely to resolve up and fill the next higher outstanding gap at 1613.00. That was actually Tuesday’s post-open low, as intraday trending up to 1625.70 filled another higher gap outstanding from 1623.40. Now a close under 1613.00 would signal momentum reversing down to 1598.00 and potentially much lower.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s open above 27.75 extended higher intraday to attack 28.50. Closing above it would confirm a move underway targeting 30.00-30.35.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s failure to close above 149-18 still required a higher close to trigger a rally leg. Tuesday’s gap down instead corrected the rally from Friday’s low down to 148-19, and fell further post-close down to 148-11. A second consecutive lower close would all but require probing fresh lows under 147-24. Recovering 149-00 should make a new rally leg obvious, confirmed above 149-18.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Steep overnight gains produced a sharply higher gap up Tuesday that ranged 87.00-88.00 through the session. Pullbacks have room down to 85.50 while next targeting 91.10.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The gap back to last week’s 2.86 opening high was filled Tuesday on the way to 2.90. Closing above 2.95 would signal a new upleg underway targeting 3.55. Meanwhile, one more dip down to 2.72 should be the last before resuming the rally.

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Today’s Highlight Monday’s stock market probed into negative territory, but it was hardly a sell-off. So, the long-bond’s 2-point surge was not from a flight-to-quality. While its recovery was expected, this pace was not. Combined with it not being driven by a fear, a rally is likely to be obvious shortly.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s gap up and narrow intraday range suggests that Friday’s corrective dip has ended. It was an “inside day,” so momentum did not reverse up, making the near-term likely to range sideways.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s pullback probed its 1.2645 limit down to 1.2578. Sideways ranging back up to 1.2670 is likely near-term, and trending is not.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1594.00 pullback limit was probed Sunday night, but largely recovered intraday Monday. The open’s gap from Friday’s ~1603.00 close was barely filled, reflecting enough pessimism to keep alive potential back up to 1613.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) One more higher close Monday would have confirmed a rally to 30.00-30.35 underway. The session only ranged narrowly, but sellers did not gain traction. Now closing above 27.75 would be bullish.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s 2-point rally originated from the fresh lows under 148-00 that would have allowed a more durable rally Thursday. The gap back up to Thursday’s 149-25 close was filled while testing Thursday’s high up to 150-02. The 149-18 buy signal was still being tested into Monday’s close, but closing above Monday’s high would target 153-04. Closing back under 149-00 could trigger a durable downleg under 147-22.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s $7.75 rally had room for correcting down to 82.50 that was attacked down to only 82.85 Monday morning before news from Iran triggered a spike up to 84.50. Another reaction down to 82.00 compensated for the premature surge, which was recovered almost entirely up to 83.75. Closing above 84.50 would signal a durable rally leg was underway, confirmed above 85.50.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Narrow ranging back up to 2.83 persisted through Monday.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight My comment about currencies wasn’t a brief statement, but it was an understatement: “almost any strength Friday was likely to trigger a steep and substantial surge into Monday’s open.” Eurozone news overnight triggered an attack on the prior week’s lows.Most interesting, is that these are only corrective legs.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The “buyers are tired” setup proved out Friday in stunning fashion. News of Europe being saved sent the Dollar tumbling under 82.75 to trend down sharply. 82.00. Avoiding a second consecutive lower close would suggests a corrective dip had ended.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Europe’s overnight news triggered a surge through the 1.2470 signal to trend up sharply. 1.2640. The rally remains intact so long as 1.2645 holds as support.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday was unlikely to confirm Thursday’s second fresh low close of the week at 1551.00, since Tuesday’s break wasn’t confirmed Wednesday. Another understatement for the day. An overnight rally triggered a gap up above Thursday’s high to 1584.00 and through Wednesday and Thursday’s highs, extending higher to 1608.00. The rally can persist so long as 1594.00 were to hold as support.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The 26.45 buy signal was recovered easily overnight to test 27.50 up to 27.84. There is a lot of resistance above, but one more higher close would confirm a test of 30.00-30.35 underway.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Having rallied Thursday prior to refueling buyers with a fresh low, the rally effort could not afford to hesitate. It did. The 149-18 sell signal triggered a plunge to 147-24, under 148-00 whose test first would have made Thursday’s rally durable. Noiw a close above 148-18 would trigger a retest of 149-24 and higher.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The recovery wasted no time appearing after Thursday’s new low closed finally fulfilled the decline’s unfinished business below. A slightly lower low under 76.00 was possible, but not required. Europe’s news made it impossible. Friday’s 84.20 high can now absorb pullbacks down to 82.50, needing a break above 85.50 to signal a new rally leg underway. A downleg would be signaled under 81.60.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Another intraday bounce Friday attacked the rally’s 2.83 target. It can be tested up to 2.88 without resuming the rally — and probably wouldn’t on its first test.

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