Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies like the Euro had been suggesting their sellers were weakening. Thursday’s fresh low is trying to suggest otherwise. That, or it is trapping shorts, so that almost any strength Friday can trigger a steep and substantial surge into Monday’s open.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Three consecutive sessions of ranging relatively narrowly around last Friday’s 82.65 high indicated that buyers were tired, and probably needing a corrective dip to refuel. The rally is trying to resume, anyway. Thursday’s open gapped up and extended higher to 83.06. Gapping open under 82.75 would be likely to trend down sharply. This bounce could otherwise extend up to 83.77.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Three consecutive sessions of ranging relatively narrowly off of Monday’s gap down indicated that sellers were tired, and probably needing a corrective dip to refuel. The drop is trying to resume, anyway. Thursday’s open gapped down and extended lower to attack 1.2425. Gapping up Friday above 1.2470 would be likely to trend up sharply. The drop could otherwise extend down to 1.2325.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s bounce did not extend any higher, let alone trigger a reversal up. Thursday’s open gapped down through 1570.00 and extended down sharply to new lows at 1547.60. A second consecutive lower close could once again trigger a much bigger downleg underway. But having avoided one consecutive confirmation Wednesday, Friday is less likely to confirm Thursday’s new low.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Recovering 27.05 would have avoided entering a much larger decline. The drop only extended, down to 26.07. Closing above 26.45 would suggest the break had failed anyway, targeting 27.05 and 27.50.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))Without refueling buyers any further after all, Thursday’s open gapped up sharply to 149-18, and then extended higher intraday to test 150-00. A second consecutive higher close would launch a new rally leg. Otherwise, almost any close back under 149-18 would be bearish.

Crude Oil AUG Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s break higher to attack 81.00 from its recently formed Symmetrical Triangle wasted little time unwinding Thursday. A session-long slide probed under last week’s lows to 77.28. As important is that its new low close fulfilled a requirement. That’s not a buy signal, and the drop can extend to 76.25 or lower before another recovery attempt.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The rally’s 2.83 target was tested at Thursday’s open, but its resistance held, as a consolidation would still be appropriate.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas met its target Wednesday by gapping up through it. The gap up didn’t prevent closing negative — if anything, gapping up while satisfying buying pressure made the reaction down more violent. But it’s interesting that the Natural Gas target is being fulfilled while another energy (Crude Oil) is breaking higher prematurely.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s probe of fresh highs was still possible since sellers had not gained traction for their efforts Monday or Tuesday. But buyers were not gaining new traction either, so Wednesday’s failure to maintain its probe of fresh highs is not surprising. There is still no sell signal.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s recovery from gapping down was in-line with Monday’s gap down that had not extended down further. But Tuesday’s recovery was not necessarily bullish. Similarly, Wednesday’s gap down to retest Tuesday’s low was not bearish. But the pattern continues to suggest that sellers are tired, and need some sort of bounce to refuel.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would have confirmed that momentum had reversed down. Wednesday’s fresh low down to 1563.00 certainly tried, but reacted up into positive territory testing 1584.00. The choppiness subsided somewhat to eventually settle slightly higher testing 1580.00. A rally to fresh highs above would be signaled underway by closing above 1584.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Last week’s low was attacked down to 26.60 in a choppy session that ultimately settled nearly unchanged. Back above 27.05 should extend higher to and through 27.50 to avoid entering a much larger decline.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s session was almost an inside day but for the morning’s slightly lower low. That slightly lower low. allowed Wednesday’s session to actually be an inside day. Regardless, not reacting down while stocks rallied does suggest an eventual break above 149-18 is approaching. Perhaps one more intraday dip under 148-00 is needed to flush out remaining sellers.

Crude Oil AUG Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The recently formed Symmetrical Triangle has broken higher first, and not lower, leaving outstanding a final low under 78.25. Meanwhile, the break higher can still test 81.45 before suggesting a bigger corrective bounce may be underway.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s gap up above the rally’s 2.83 target intraday to test 2.95 was nevertheless reversed back into negative territory under 2.75. Having fulfilled the pattern’s target, and reacting down meaningfully (turning negative), a consolidation would now be appropriate before another signal can generate.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold plunged Tuesday in reaction to Monday’s RSI negative divergence. Look out below — really far below — if that is confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Wednesday.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap up to Friday’s 2.65 high had only ranged sideways intraday. Tuesday morning’s probe above it to 82.86 was retraced into negative territory at 82.50, under all of Monday’s range. There is still no sell signal, and the rally can extend up this way indefinitely, but it is only day-to-day and not reliable.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s gap down to 1.2500 was not any more bearish since the balance of the session only ranged around it. So, Tuesday’s gap down eventually extended to 1.2450 but recovered back up to 1.2500. There is still no buy signal, and the drop can extend down this way indefinitely, but it is only day-to-day and not reliable.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) RSIs diverged negatively while Monday’s rally above 1572.50 to probe 1584.00 up to 1589.00. Tuesday’s open gapped down and slid to 1568.00. The close was still testing 1572.50. A second consecutive lower close would confirm a retest of last week’s 1560.00 lows underway.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s surge to 27.30-27.50 resistance was retraced to 26.75 Tuesday. The recovery attempt’s 27.10 pullback limit did not hold. Its immediate recovery Wednesday would be credible for at least filling the gap back up to Monday’s 27.50 close, and then potentially extending higher to 30.00-30.35.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s narrowly ranging session was almost an inside day. But it offered no new information, only validating the pessimism up to 149-18 resistance.

Crude Oil AUG Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s narrow inside day did not rally with the stock market, suggesting that at least one more lower close does still remain in-play.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s breakout extended higher Tuesday to 2.77, nearing its 2.83 target, which now remains in-play so long as 2.65 were to hold any test as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Trash-talking the Euro has reached Olympic proportion. Again. But Monday’s gap down never really extended lower intraday. Almost any delay in extended down could be bullish.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday had not confirmed Thursday’s breakout, but it wasn’t a sell signal. Monday’s open gapped up to test Friday’s 82.65 high, but only ranged narrowly around it intraday. Hesitating the rally effort any further would be likely at least to test 82.15 support.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s 1.2560 close was not optimal confirmation to extending Thursday’s break lower. Perhaps that’s why Monday’s opening gap down to 1.2495 did not extend much lower intraday, and then only temporarily. Tuesday’s open must close lower to avoid a at least a corrective bounce back to 1.2610.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s post-close action had extended its intraday bounce to test 1572.50. The bounce extended higher Monday to test 1584.00. It was probed up to 1589.00 while RSIs diverged negatively. Back under 1576.00 would trigger a retest of last week’s 1560.00 lows.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s steep rally from Friday’s 26.65 close tested 27.30-27.50 resistance, whose recovery could return quickly to 30.00-30.35, so long as 27.10 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Another stock market sell-off Monday, opening under Thursday’s lows, and still the long bond could only attack 149-18. The gap back to Thursday’s 149-07 close was filled, so there is no bearish reason to probe any higher. Closing above 149-18 would still get a benefit of the doubt for launching a rally.

Crude Oil AUG Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Having retraced 61.8% of Thursday’s drop Friday back up to 80.15, breaking back under 79.35 would resume the decline. Monday’s open gapped under it and extended down to 78.00. At least one more lower close remains likely.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Despite not clearly triggering 2.62 Friday to put into play 2.83, Monday’s open gapped up to test 2.73. Now 2.62 must hold as support to maintain the rally’s momentum.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Silver’s fresh low into the weekend could extend down sharply into next week, with almost an exception — almost any bounce Monday could trigger a steep short-squeeze.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s close above 81.70 was not confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Friday, though not for lack of trying. Just for lack of trying too hard. Extending higher Monday could still gain traction to extend the rally.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s open tried to extend Thursday’s close under 1.2640. But Thursday’s 1.2560 close was still being tested throughout the afternoon. This is not optimal confirmation to momentum extending down, but neither it is a buy signal..

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Keeping bounces shallow enabled the two-day plunge to extend to fresh lows Friday under 1559.00. But the session really only ranged narrowly around 1566.00, so extending the decline still depends upon bounces being shallow.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s break to new lows extended down Friday. New lows at 26.50 were not recovered into positive territory. So long as 27.30-27.50 were to contain bounces, new lows under 26.10 area in-play. Recovering 27.30-27.50 could return quickly up to 30.00-30.35.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Holding 148-18 resistance during Thursday’s stock market plunge was unlikely to produce a rally while stocks firmed Friday. Intraday weakness was contained by 148-02, with only the 148-18 buy signal intact.

Crude Oil AUG Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) 61.8% of Thursday’s drop was retraced Friday at 80.15. Closing under 79.35 would resume the decline.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Fresh highs probed fresh highs up to 2.66. But the 2.62 prior high was still being tested into the close, and not clearly triggered to put into play 2.83.

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