Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially firming Sunday night to fresh recovery highs at 1.1800 was retraced before Monday’s open to gap down slightly and extend down to 1.1740 support. Momentum did not reverse down, keeping alive the attraction back up to 1.1850 so long as 1.1725 holds as support.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s initial strength to test 1235.00 was retraced into Monday’s open as the morning dipped to attack 1222.00. Closing back above 1230.00 would be more reliable for launching an upleg.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trying to probe higher Sunday night was retraced back toward Thursday night’s lows Monday morning, maintaining higher highs and higher lows that keep alive potential for launching a rally leg.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s drop to the 144-08 target held through Sunday night but then gave way to the next lower objective at 143-02 down to 142-28. The bounce limit is now 143-12 to maintain the decline’s momentum.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s strength up to 69.30 was on-track to extend Thursday’s recovery above 68.80, despite Friday not having confirmed. But Monday was more in sync with Friday, as intraday action reacted back down into negative territory testing the low pattern’s 67.60 as support. Closing above 68.80 would still be credible for launching at least a corrective bounce targeting 71.70.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday and Friday’s testing 2.78 resistance had threatened to violate the downside momentum, but Sunday night’s gap down and Monday’s testing of 2.71 continue to point lower.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Narrow overnight ranging seemed unaware of China’s devaluation. But it eventually rallied, gapping up through the 1.1725 resistance’s buy signal that had only been touched Thursday. This fulfills the second consecutive higher close required to put into play a retest of the recent 1.1850 high.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping overnight to 1215.30 came within a dime of filling the gap back to Thursday’s gap down. That was close enough to react up into Friday’s open, which extended higher. Closing above Thursday’s 1229.60 high is close enough to signal momentum has reversed up. “Higher prior lows” to 1238.00 is a minimum upside objective. Regardless, an intraday test of 1215.20 would have been optimal, and still would be optimal to completing a durable bottom.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The decline’s 12.25 target was retested overnight, filling the gap back to Thursday’s open. Already recovering into Friday’s open extended through Thursday’s 15.48 high which would be bullish if recovered through the close. Upside potential could easily test 15.78 regardless of the resolution.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s fresh low was too brief to fulfill Monday’s “warning shot,” especially when the recovery once again stopped well short of rewarding its buyers. Narrow ranging through Friday’s open eventually broke sharply lower to fulfill the closes lower objective at 144-08. The fresh low close into the weekend suggests at least a temporary lower low Monday.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward to Sep, which trades at a 1.75 discount to Aug]… Thursday’s recovery above its last relative high still needed confirmation from a second consecutive higher close Friday that momentum is reversing up. The early recovery was just enough, but never extended higher intraday.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction up had held the 2.78 resistance which Friday morning did test. Until that’s recovered, the pattern remains likely to resume its decline.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday night’s drop gapped down Thursday under the 1.1665 support that had defined Wednesday’s low. Testing four-week old 1.1620-1.1625 support reacted up again Thursday, first bouncing and then surging back into positive territory to 1.1725 resistance. Closing any higher Friday would target the gap back up to 1.1850.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Trending down overnight and gapping down sharply to test 1211.00 firmed through the morning, then surged out of the noon hour’s interest rate comments. The gap back up to Wednesday’s 1228.00 close was nearly filled. Regardless, Thursday’s 1215.00 opening print can now be filled from above to form a durable bottom.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap down to test 15.20 had consolidated back to the decline’s 15.25 target area when the interest rate comments triggered a sure that touched Wednesday’s 15.42 “higher prior lows.” Now Thursday’s opening print can be filled from above to form a durable bottom.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing Monday morning’s low down to 144-12 stopped short of its 144-08 potential before surging once again back into the 145-02/145-25 range. While Monday’s dip warned of a deeper probe coming, could Thursday’s dip be that completed probe? Probably not, but less so if Thursday’s bounce isn’t retraced into the weekend.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Closing above Tuesday’s 68.45 interim high — more decisively than Wednesday — suggests that a bottom is forming. A second consecutive higher close is required to confirm.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA reprot from a position of weakness only gapped down and probed fresh lows down to 2.70. The knee-jerk reaction surged back up to 2.77. The outside day probed above Wednesday’s highs, which doesn’t require any upside follow-through, but should avoid probing above Thursday’s highs to maintain the decline’s momentum.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still trending down overnight to 1.1653 gapped down Wednesday to retest the 1.1665 support that had held night’s low, and had launched the interim rally. Rallying straight back up into the afternoon filled the gap back up to Tuesday’s close, and extending any higher Thursday morning would be likely to extend intraday.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s sharp decline to fresh lows from the two-day range all but required probing lower lows Wednesday. Gapping down fulfilled the fresh lows, then bounced back into Tuesday’s range up to 1229.00. The 1223.60 open’s gap down under all prior lows can now be filled and neutralize its attraction.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sliding sharply Tuesday extended overnight to gap down Wednesday at 15.45. Bouncing back up to Tuesday’s 15.55 higher prior lows now allows a retest of Wednesday’s opening gap down to form a durable bottom.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still not rejecting Monday morning’s brief probe under the 145-02/145-25 range’s low to 144-23 continued making its break likelier. Even gapping up Wednesday to test 145-10 was reversed back under Tuesday’s lows to 144-27.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight weakness avoided fresh lows, but still greeted Wednesday’s EIA report from a position of weakness. Gapping down to attack Tuesday’s low reacted back up to test Thursday’s high. Extending any higher Thursday morning would suggest the pullback or first downleg had ended.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s fresh lows all but confirmed the decline’s momentum remains intact, absorbing the Sunday-Monday night choppy bouncing. Not recovering any relevant resistance through the close greets Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s shallow dip had nevertheless held a relevant support at 1.1740 before recovering to attack the morning’s high. But it still needed a second consecutive higher confirming close. Which didn’t come, as Tuesday morning trended back down to and through Friday’s close to attack 1.1700.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight rally held the 1245.50 bounce limit but still gapped up slightly above Monday’s 1240.00 close. Then price plunged back through the decline’s 1237.50 target to fresh lows testing 1226.00. After Monday’s low had neutralized the “unfinished business below” at Friday’s opening gap down, there was no bullish reason for any further weakness, enabling Tuesday’s sizeable reaction.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down back to Friday’s shallow low proved that previous bottoming attempts were ‘ineffectually optimistic” as the morning slid sharply to attack 15.55.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
If Monday’s probe under the channel’s 145-02 lower-end were a false break, then Tuesday should have rejected the probe by rallying sharply. But price only hovered, suggesting that Monday’s probe was a warning shot across the bow. Breaking above Monday’s high through Wednesday’s open would be credible for launching another bounce, but at least another downleg has become more likely.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Regardless of having fulfilled the confirmed breakout’s minimum objective with Monday’s fresh low close, no buy signal had formed, and Tuesday probed slightly lower lows intraday.. Then it recovered positive territory, albeit only slightly positive, but not confirming the decline’s momentum.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s choppy bounce had tried extending slightly higher overnight to 2.79, but Monday morning drop to fresh lows at 2.73 essentially proved the decline remains intact. That’s probably not enough consequence for the failed choppy bounce, suggesting that lower lows remain in-play.