Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Jan (CLF) Wednesday’s opening gap down quickly bottomed at prior lows and rallied back to prior highs, maintaining potential – if not the likelihood – for filling the gap back to last Monday’s 90.65 open before a more durable sell-off can be attempted.

Natural Gas Jan (NGF) Rather than recover 4.31-4.35, Tuesday’s decline extended. Stretching the rubber band more tightly does buy some time for a recovery attempt, especially since the morning’s low held an afternoon retest. Gapping or surging back above the 4.28 intraday high would help to seal a bottom. EIA news at 10:30 Thursday is a potential catalyst.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Tuesday’s 79.85 high was recovered quickly Wednesday to signal momentum reversing up. Last week’s Head & Shoulders pattern was probed by 61.8% up to 80.60. Recovering 80.70 would next target 80.90, whose recovery would signal a durable rally leg underway.

Gold Feb (GCG) Tuesday’s recovery back to the open’s gap up, and back to 1407.00, was rejected by Wednesday’s open gapping down under Tuesday’s lows. The test of 1385.00 support should fill the gap back to 1381.00 to launch another test of 1398.00.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Tuesday’s drop extended lower Wednesday, testing the 119’00 area. Probes under 119’08-119’20 must recover quickly to avoid gaining traction that extends the decline. And extending the decline at this stage of the pattern would be very bearish.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Feb (GCG) Tuesday’s gap up quickly peaked upon retesting the same outstanding gap that had attracted November’s rally leg higher. Despite dipping intraday into negative territory, the afternoon recovered fully. Closing above 1398.00 signals that the 1427.40 retest is underway, potentially to 1436.50, Rejecting Tuesday’s gain Wednesday would target at least a retest of 1381.00.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Tuesday’s opening gap down did not extend, and recovered into positive territory. The days’ volatility did not gain traction either way. Upside was limited to 79.85, whose recovery on a closing basis would signal momentum reversing up. Still need to recover 80.90-81.10 to signal a larger rally leg is underway. There is no unfinished business below, so any lower low should be temporary.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Tuesday’s plunge proved Monday’s shallow new low and recovery were excessive optimism. A myriad of targeted support (targets, lower prior highs, prior lows) were fulfilled in the 119’08-119’20 area. That is not a buy signal, and an immediate recovery would not be credible for launching a durable upleg. Delaying a recovery attempt until next week would be more credible.

Crude Oil Jan (CLF) Tuesday was essentially an inside day that didn’t trend in either direction. It was a a non-event. But it does make Wednesday vulnerable to opening with a gap beyond Tuesday’s range. The attraction above at 90.65 makes gapping up likelier.

Natural Gas Jan (NGF) Tuesday’s extended drop fell far below 4.31-4.35, which had previously held pullbacks. It is very critical that those sellers be trapped – not necessarily by gapping up Wednesday – but by quickly recovering 4.35e, preferably into Wednesday afternoon. Then price would likely be attracted higher by the gaps back to Tuesday’s close and back to Monday’s open. Otherwise, later recovery attempts would be difficult if allowed time to gain traction.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Three consecutive days of narrow ranging – despite kicking off with a gap up – had failed to extend higher. A Head & Shoulders-like pattern formed. Extending higher out of the pattern required gapping up Monday. In its absence, there was a likelihood to retest 80.10 support.

80.10 support had been tested already overnight last week. Its retest would need to react up sharply to avoid a retest of prior lows. In fact, prior lows were retested down to 79.42. Monday’s close was still in the process of testing prior lows as support.

A small gap back to Friday’s 80.46 close is left outstanding. Its retest isn’t required since it was created by gapping open under Friday afternoon’s lows. But a close above 79.85 would signal momentum reversing up. A close above 80.90 is needed to signal a bigger rally underway.

Gold Feb (GCG) Attraction back to last Tuesday’s 1427.40 remained alive just for having held 1381.00 support. A close above 1398.00 is needed to signal that leg of the move underway. Monday tested 1398.00, and closed above it but didn’t trigger it convincingly. Pullbacks should now hold 1385.00 as support to avoid resuming the decline.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Monday’s open gapped down and eventually tested last week’s low by a 1-tick margin. That does not fulfill the minimum objective of a new low, earned by last week’s breakout and confirmation. The shallow interim bounce does suggest pessimism is approaching unsustainable levels, but a better probe under 121’27 is needed to complete the bottom. This is despite Sunday night’s 120’19 lower low, and despite the reaction up into positive territory. The reaction up might yet test 123’06-124’00 before probing the lows.

Crude Oil Jan (CLF) The attraction back up to 90.65 was obvious at Monday’s gap up. But the balance of the session faded lower anyway. The dip reacted up after nearly filling the gap back to Friday’s close.

Natural Gas Jan (NGF) Gapping up Monday introduced the same problem as last week’s gap up. Friday’s 4.42 close was retested, as was its 4.39 last relative low, and even the deepest test yet of 4.31-4.35. Closing above 4.39 robbed sellers of their traction. Now Monday’s 4.50 gap up can attract price higher. A close above 4.50 would signal a larger rally leg underway.

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A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere…[pay] The week ended with a whimper, and hardly reflected any of the bangs that developed each day.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) The week contained the end of a corrective dip, a retest of its low, and its reactive bounce. The bounce ended as quickly as it began, ranging narrowly sideways since gapping up on Wednesday. A close above 80.90 would signal the next rally leg underway, but the delay suggests one more dip to 80.10 is needed to dump ballast. Having already tested 80.10 overnight, it had better be recovered quickly to avoid dipping under support.

Gold Feb (GCG) 1381.00 held another test as support Friday. Its support defines last week’s drop as being only a correction. And it maintains potential for retesting last week’s 1427.40 high opening gap up to 1436.50. A close above 1398.00 would signal the high’s retest in-play. A retest of last week’s high would be likely to hold as resistance, and then launch a durable reversal leg down.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Thursday’s bounce didn’t extend higher Friday, but the decline did not resume. The inside day ranged very narrowly sideways, without sloping up or down which might have signaled one resolution or the other. Tuesday and Wednesday’s breakout and confirmation require at least one more new low to print, so recovering from a fresh low Monday could rob sellers of their traction. Otherwise, the trend remains down.

Crude Oil Jan (CLF) Monday and Tuesday’s failed sell setups suggested that sellers weren’t yet capable of retaking control. The resulting environment tends to resolve any unfinished business above. This makes a retest likely of Tuesday’s 90.65 opening gap. Friday’s weakness held a test of Wednesday’s 87.50 low, whose break could trigger a bigger corrective dip.

Natural Gas Jan (NGF) Tuesday night’s dip held the upper-end of its 4.31-4.35 pullback target. The dip was shallow, but just deep enough to avoid being too optimistic. Wednesday’s gap up was too optimistic. Thursday’s opening strength was blind-sided by EIA. Friday’s follow-through retested 4.35 before closing back above Thursday’s low. A credible rally leg could begin without delay, but another intraday recovery from a lower low would be preferable.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Signaled a breakout on Tuesday, confirmed Wednesday, and opened the door to a bounce, which was exploited Thursday. It got to 122’20, leaving some room to 123’06 or 124.00. Neither requires a retest, but there is that much upside potential before resuming the decline to at least probe Wednesday’s 120’27 low.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Gapped up Thursday after probing lower lows overnight, which was a response to Wednesday’s gap up that went nowhere. The overnight dip held its 80.10 pullback limit. A close above 80.90-81.10 would signal the rally had resumed.

Gold Feb (GCG) By maintaining Wednesday’s recovery above 1381.00 indicated its recovery is on-track or intending to fill the gap back to Tuesday morning’s 1427.40 opening gap up, perhaps also probe new high at 1436.50 before triggering a valid downleg.

Crude Oil Jan (CLF) Rejected two consecutive sell setups that equated to a buy setup each time. Their result should produce a retest of Tuesday’s 90.65 opening gap before any downleg can gain traction.

Natural Gas Jan (NGF) Got ahead of itself Wednesday, perhaps a little optimistic – but not overly-optimistic. But a negative reaction to Thursday’s EIA data fell back towards Tuesday’s close. Since the 4.31-4.35 pullback target was barely touched before launching Wednesday’s recovery, and and since Wednesday’s recovery has been retraced, 4.31-4.35 is likely to be probed now more thoroughly. But the pattern’s likely resolution remains up.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).